Baselines and Score Centering in Policy Gradient Estimation

Reinforcement learning (RL) of large language models is notoriously sensitive to small differences between training and inference engines, often referred to as the training-inference mismatch (TIM). However, completely eliminating TIM is impractical, as it would come at a major cost to rollout efficiency. In this paper, we show that the instability of RL under TIM is primarily caused by drift: a persistent bias between training and inference engines that accumulates with every training step. We derive an additive "score centering" correction term that stabilizes RL under TIM by canceling drift. When training models from 0.6B to 30B parameters, score centering alone matches or outperforms methods based on importance sampling under quantization, with the gap growing as the mismatch becomes more severe. Because the correction is additive, score centering also composes with importance sampling -- their composition outperforms pure importance-sampling baselines in our staleness experiments.

Reinforcement learning has become a central tool for large language model (LLM) post-training, where policy gradient methods are routinely deployed off-policy, even though vanilla policy gradient assumes on-policy sampling. We study when such off-policy deployment is justified, and what roles its core ingredients, including importance sampling, KL regularization, and baselines, play in handling the resulting distribution shift. We show that for a general class of off-policy policy gradient updates, consistency, in the sense that the optimal policy remains a stationary point, requires one of two structures at the optimal policy: trajectory-level importance weighting, which suffers from the well-known curse of horizon, or KL regularization with a baseline equal to the optimal soft value, instantiated by the grouped mean. Focusing on the KL route, we identify it with the group-relative policy gradient (GRPG) update, establish an equivalence to a trajectory-level Bellman residual minimization objective, and obtain a finite-sample regret bound under all-policy coverage. This also gives a theoretical account of a variant of the empirically successful GRPO objective. We further uncover a hidden role of baselines in the off-policy setting: a constant shift in the baseline implements pessimism, the standard remedy in offline RL for partial data coverage. We instantiate this via the asymmetric REINFORCE objective, and connect it to the game-theoretic offline RL framework, showing a regret bound with single-policy coverage. Together, these results offer a unified theoretical view of off-policy policy gradient in LLM post-training and connect it to classical ideas in offline RL.

Reinforcement learning, including reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR), has emerged as a powerful approach for LLM post-training. Central to these approaches is the design of the importance sampling (IS) ratio used in off-policy policy-gradient estimation. Existing methods face a fundamental bias-variance dilemma: token-level IS ratios, as adopted by PPO (Schulman et al., 2017) and GRPO (Shao et al., 2024), introduce bias by ignoring prefix state distribution mismatch; full sequence ratios provide exact trajectory-level correction but suffer from high variance due to the multiplicative accumulation of per-token ratios, while GSPO (Zheng et al., 2025) improves numerical stability via length normalization at the cost of deviating from the exact full-sequence IS correction. In this work, we identify the cumulative token IS ratio, the product of per-token ratios up to position $t$, as a theoretically principled solution to this dilemma. We prove that, under the token-level policy-gradient formulation, this ratio provides an unbiased prefix correction for each token-level gradient term and has strictly lower variance than the full sequence ratio. Building on this insight, we propose CTPO (Cumulative Token Policy Optimization), which combines the cumulative token IS ratio with position-adaptive clipping that scales log-space clip bounds according to the natural $\sqrt{t}$ growth of the cumulative log-ratio. This yields more consistent regularization across token positions. We implement and evaluate CTPO in the tool-integrated reasoning setting on several challenging mathematical reasoning benchmarks, achieving the best average performance across both model scales compared with strong GRPO and GSPO baselines. Code will be available at https://github.com/horizon-llm/CTPO.