Where Prefill Expert Reduction Hurts MoE Models: A Few Prompt Tokens Carry Most of the Short-Answer F1 Loss

Fine-grained mixture-of-experts (MoE) architectures have become a mainstream design for open-weight LLMs, with hundreds of experts and increasingly many selected per token. This shift makes dynamic expert pruning an attractive route to cheaper inference. Yet existing evidence comes largely from coarser architectures and likelihood-scored multiple-choice benchmarks, leaving three central questions open in the fine-grained regime: how redundant per-token expert selection is, how effectively existing pruning methods exploit that redundancy, and what governs a model's sensitivity to pruning. We fill this gap with a systematic empirical study of twelve fine-grained MoE checkpoints spanning nine architecture families, with a core suite of eleven benchmarks covering knowledge QA, mathematics, code generation, and general reasoning. We find that expert selection is far more redundant than the field's operating points assume: uniformly retaining about two thirds of the selected experts preserves 98.8% of unpruned performance on average, requiring only a one-integer change and delivering 1.2-1.7x measured speedup across two serving backends. This simple baseline leaves little room for dynamic allocation at conservative budgets: even the best published rules differ from it by under 1% at matched expert budgets. Their value emerges under aggressive pruning, where the best rules recover up to 3.0% over uniform truncation, with gains concentrated in the generative tasks that suffer the sharpest degradation. Sensitivity to aggressive pruning also depends on the model: larger and thinking models are more resilient, whereas multimodal models are more vulnerable. Together, these findings reveal how much expert computation fine-grained MoEs can dispense with, and establish when dynamic allocation earns its complexity, informing both practical deployment and future pruning methods.

Modern fine-grained Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models route each token to a small number of experts and renormalize their router probabilities. We show that this renormalization implicitly calibrates expert output gain to the training top-$k$: reducing $k$ at inference changes not only which experts are used but also the strength of the expert branch. We separate these effects by activating the top $k_1$ experts while normalizing by the probability mass of the top $k_2$ experts, introducing one integer with no parameters, training, or measurable compute overhead. On Qwen3.6-35B-A3B, reducing from 8 to 4 experts causes a 4.65-point MMLU drop under standard renormalization but only 0.35 points with $k_2=16$, while halving routed-expert compute. The result replicates on the $11\times$ larger Qwen3.5-397B-A17B, where reducing from 10 to 5 experts loses only 0.55 points with an appropriate reference set. Removing renormalization entirely is catastrophic, showing that preserving a suitable reference mass is crucial. We further find that perplexity and downstream accuracy favor different $k_2$, cautioning against selecting MoE compression settings using unlabeled text alone. Analyses also show that expert identity matters substantially more than expert weighting, while balanced and domain-specialized routing leaves limited room for expert pruning.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models have gained popularity as a means of scaling the capacity of large language models (LLMs) while maintaining sparse activations and reduced per-token compute. However, in memory-constrained inference settings, expert weights must be offloaded to CPU, creating a performance bottleneck from CPU-GPU transfers during decoding. We propose an expert prefetching scheme that leverages currently computed internal model representations to speculate future experts, enabling memory transfers to overlap with computation. Across multiple MoE architectures, we demonstrate that future experts can be reliably predicted by these internal representations. We also demonstrate that executing speculated experts generally maintains downstream task accuracy, thus preserving more effective compute-memory overlap by eliminating the need to re-fetch true router-selected experts. Integrated into an optimized inference engine, our approach achieves up to 14% reduction in time per output token (TPOT) over on-demand loading of experts from CPU memory. For MoEs where speculative execution alone yields suboptimal accuracy, we further examine lightweight estimators that improve expert prediction hit rates, thereby reducing performance degradation. Our code is released in open-source at https://github.com/axonn-ai/yalis/tree/offload_prefetch.