DeltaTrace: Efficient Signed Attribution for Reasoning Language Models

Understanding the causal structure of a language model's thought process is a problem of significant importance for both transparency and safety. In this work, we take a local approach toward this goal by analyzing the causal relationships among individual components, termed units, of a given, specific chain-of-thought trace. We construct a structural causal model on these units and relate each unit to the log probability of generating (subsequent) output units. Our algorithm, termed AttriCoT, is a black-box method that performs attribution by estimating importance parameters in the structural causal model using $O(U)$ forward passes through the model, where $U$ is the number of units. Evaluation of perturbation curves across 5 datasets and 4 reasoning models shows that AttriCoT produces attributions that are more faithful to the model's behavior than alternative methods. The attribution results also reveal notable differences in thought structure between models and domains.

Understanding how language models carry out long-horizon reasoning remains an open challenge. Existing interpretability methods often highlight tokens correlated with an answer, but rarely reveal where consequential reasoning turns occur, which earlier context triggers them under causal intervention, or whether highlighted text actually steers the rollout. We introduce Directional Reasoning Trajectory Change (DRTC), a process-causal method that (i) detects pivot decision points via uncertainty and distribution-shift signals and (ii) applies receiver-side interventions that preserve the realized continuation without resampling while blocking information flow from selected earlier chunks only at a pivot. DRTC measures how each intervention redirects the log-probability trajectory relative to the realized rollout direction, yielding signed per-chunk attributions; we also compute logit-space curvature changes and curvature signatures as a complementary geometric diagnostic. Across four reasoning models, influence is sharply concentrated (Gini approximately 0.50-0.58, top-5% mass approximately 0.23-0.28), and learned pivots induce stronger effects than matched random spans. In a 500-problem MATH scaling study with R1-Distill-Qwen-1.5B, learned spans continue to outperform matched random spans (median Delta=0.409, 355/500 positive; p=2.3e-21), and curvature-impact co-localizes with DRTC within traces as a diagnostic. We benchmark against gradient- and perturbation-based chunk attributions and show graded outcome linkage: under embedding-interpolation edits, top-ranked DRTC chunks reduce teacher-forced gold-answer log-probability more than strict position-matched random chunks on a stability-filtered subset. Overall, DRTC provides a causally grounded view of how specific context elements steer on-policy reasoning trajectories.

Attributing language model outputs to their internal computations is an open problem in interpretability. Existing methods, which use causal interventions, gradients, or learnable masks, either are infeasibly expensive or struggle to identify actual causally-important internal computations. We propose framing attribution as the problem of identifying nested subsets of internal components which minimise a downstream loss. To learn this task, we introduce Matryoshka Attribution (MAttr), a mask learning method that parametrises the mask with a simple differentiable sigmoid top-$k$ operator. We supervise training over all sparsities simultaneously by randomising $k$ over training, resulting in a learned ordering of components by attribution score. MAttr achieves number 1 on the official leaderboard of the Mechanistic Interpretability Benchmark (Mueller et al., 2025); our method identifies sparse and task-transferrable circuits across varying circuit bases. As a practical application, we show that MAttr can be trained with reinforcement learning to identify weight changes responsible for downstream behaviours in LLM finetuning. We train MAttr on refusal judge scores and find that restoring $1\%$ of Llama 3.1 8B Instruct's weights to their base model state is sufficient to remove refusals while maintaining capabilities. We view MAttr as a successful formulation of interpretability into a learnable objective that we can tackle with gradient descent, and encourage future work along these lines.