MultiCard: Multiple Attribute Cardinality Estimation via Deep Learning

Query optimization of Basic Graph Patterns (BGP) SPARQL queries over Knowledge Graphs (KG) requires accurate cardinality estimation. Recently published learned estimators outperform statistics- and sampling-based approaches, but share a limitation preventing their adoption in real-world triplestores: they are transductive and require retraining when the underlying graph changes or when applied to new graphs. We present FICE (Fully Inductive Cardinality Estimation), the first learned cardinality estimator for BGP queries over KGs that generalizes to entirely unseen graphs (including unseen relations), without any retraining. FICE is a graph neural network (GNN) with two coupled components. First, an encoder GNN over a factor-graph view of the KG produces entity and relation embeddings. We prove that BGP cardinality is a local function of the 2-hop neighborhood around bound terms in this view, motivating the local message-passing encoder. A decoder GNN then composes these embeddings along the join topology of the query to predict log-cardinality. The encoder and decoder are trained jointly, making the embeddings specialized for cardinality estimation. FICE is trained using neighborhood sampling to scale to KGs with millions of triples, and decouples embedding generation from cardinality decoding to enable estimation latency below a millisecond. Compared to learned and non-learned baselines over 10 KGs, FICE reduces the overall median q-error from 13.54 (for the best competitor) to 5.34 and dominates all approaches in tail behavior.

In-database predictive query processing increasingly applies Transformer-based models within relational pipelines. However, existing in-database inference typically exposes only tuple-level model inputs to the inference runtime, leaving relational predicates and metadata statistics invisible to neural execution planning. In this paper, we propose QCATS, a query context-aware transformer slicing framework that enables efficient sparse inference inside database systems. QCATS executes at query granularity: instead of routing individual tokens or tuples during inference, it uses query predicates and metadata statistics to pre-select context-aligned FFN slices before model execution. The framework comprises offline expert construction and lightweight query-level routing that dynamically selects experts during execution. QCATS further introduces system optimizations, including asynchronous CPU-GPU pipelines and routing-aware batching. Experiments on four predictive-query workloads with BERT-base and Qwen-0.6B show that QCATS achieves up to 4.42x latency reduction while preserving prediction accuracy comparable to dense baselines.

Cardinality-estimation (CE) research ranks estimators by q-error, yet it is well known that q-error is an imperfect proxy for query-plan quality. We give a measurement-driven account of when it is a good proxy and when it is not, and why. Modeling plan selection as an argmin over a piecewise-linear cost landscape, we find that plan regret (the cost of the chosen plan relative to the optimal, under true cardinalities) is governed by plan-cost geometry in a regime-dependent way. (i) For small errors, a true-point condition number kappa predicts regret and out-predicts q-error; its predictive power decays to zero as error grows, as a local linearization must. (ii) For large errors -- where deployed learned estimators operate -- an estimator-independent average-case sub-optimality measure ACS-infinity predicts which queries are regret-prone (Spearman rho ~ 0.54 on STATS-CEB), while q-error is nearly uninformative at the query level (rho ~ 0.05). (iii) The worst case is Haritsa's maximum sub-optimality (MSO). The three are one cost-ratio spectrum under three weightings. We prove a limit law ACS-infinity = sum_k r_k pi_k with cardinality-independent combinatorial weights, and validate every claim on STATS-CEB and JOB-light with four released estimators under pre-registered decision rules, and confirm on real PostgreSQL runtime that ACS-infinity predicts regret where q-error does not. The contribution is conceptual and empirical -- an average-case companion to worst-case robust query optimization, and a characterization of when an accuracy metric tracks plan quality -- rather than a new estimator. Code and the full pre-registration are public.