Minimax-Optimal Predictive Flow Matching under Distribution Drift

Flow matching trains a neural network to regress the conditional velocity along a linear interpolant between noise and data, and the number of network evaluations~(NFE) sets the cost of sampling. The straight-line interpolant carries an implicit choice: the sample moves at constant speed throughout the trajectory. We relax this choice and introduce Velocity Scheduled Flow Matching~(VSFM), which replaces the conditional target $x_1 - x_0$ with $v(t)(x_1 - x_0)$ for any nonnegative profile $v:[0,1]\to\mathbb{R}_{\geq 0}$ satisfying $\int_0^1 v\,dt = 1$. We study six polynomial profiles drawn from motion planning. The first use of VSFM is at inference time: a pretrained linear flow-matching model can be sampled under any admissible profile by integrating its ODE on a non-uniform $τ$-schedule, with no retraining and no additional computation; on CIFAR-10 this lowers FID by up to $19.8\%$. Training from scratch under a braking profile gives a further reduction of $17.4\%$ at $4$~NFE. Both gains follow from the local truncation error of the Euler integrator on the induced grid.

Flow Matching (FM) learns a velocity field whose ODE transports a simple source distribution to a target law. Existing finite-sample theory largely treats ambient-space regularity or data supported exactly on low-dimensional sets. We study linear FM under a noisy latent-generator model, where a low-dimensional Hölder map is perturbed by nondegenerate ambient Gaussian noise, so the target law is full-dimensional despite its latent structure. We construct a spatially regular ReLU velocity class and establish non-asymptotic high-probability approximation and estimation bounds whose leading sample-size exponent is governed by the latent dimension rather than the ambient dimension, with ambient and noise dependence kept explicit. Fixed positive target noise keeps the interpolation nondegenerate over the full time interval. The same spatial regularity propagates the learned velocity error through the transport ODE, yielding a corresponding Wasserstein convergence guarantee. These results show that exact low-dimensional support is not necessary for Flow Matching to retain latent-dimensional statistical behavior.

In flow matching (FM), a velocity model $v_θ$ is trained using a predefined path $g_t$ that connects data and noise samples (e.g., $g_t(x_0, x_1) = (1 - t) x_0 + t x_1$). In this work, we study the choice of this path from an optimization perspective by analyzing the variance of stochastic gradients. We consider the class $G(p_t,v^\star_t)$ of paths that induce the same marginal distributions $p_t$ and marginal velocity field $v^\star_t$, and therefore the same FM objective. Our main finding is that the choice of path $g_t$ can fundamentally change the convergence rate of SGD, even when the FM objective remains exactly the same. (i) For a linear velocity model and one-dimensional Gaussian data, we derive a tight bound on the SGD iteration complexity up to logarithmic factors and find an analytically optimal path that minimizes this bound among linear paths inducing the same FM problem. (ii) We then extend the variance analysis to general FM problems and formulate path selection at a fixed $θ$ as the variance-minimization problem PathOpt$_θ$, constrained to $g_t\in G(p_t,v^\star_t)$. We show that this constraint is essential: reducing variance without it can lead to slower convergence. (iii) Since the constraint $g_t \in G(p_t,v^\star_t)$ cannot generally be verified directly, we derive an equivalent formulation with constraints that can be estimated from samples, allowing paths to be found numerically. Our theoretical results are supported by experiments with Gaussian data, Gaussian mixture models, and real datasets.