Good Rankings, Poor Choices? Rethinking Language-Only Vision-Language Model Selection

While open sourced Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have proliferated, selecting the optimal pretrained model for a specific downstream task remains challenging. Exhaustive evaluation is often infeasible due to computational constraints and data limitations in few shot scenarios. Existing selection methods fail to fully address this: they either rely on data-intensive proxies or use symmetric textual descriptors that neglect the inherently directional and model-specific nature of transferability. To address this problem, we propose a framework that grounds model selection in the internal functional dynamics of the visual encoder. Our approach represents each task via layer wise conductance and derives a target-conditioned block importance distribution through entropy regularized alignment. Building on this, we introduce Directional Conductance Divergence (DCD), an asymmetric metric that quantifies how effectively a source task covers the target's salient functional blocks. This allows for predicting target model rankings by aggregating source task ranks without direct inference. Experimental results on 48 VLMs across 21 datasets demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, achieving a 14.7% improvement in NDCG@5 over SWAB.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) are increasingly used in industry VLM applications such as retrieval systems, content generation platforms, and decision-support workflows, where model selection is commonly guided by benchmark rankings. These rankings are largely determined by retrieval, captioning, and reasoning downstream tasks; however, models with similar task performance often show substantially different behavior across datasets. This creates a Capability-Reliability Gap between benchmark performance and observed model stability. We present ARGUS-EVAL, a capability-reliability-oriented evaluation framework for VLMs that characterizes model behavior through Benchmark Capability P(M), Cross-Dataset Consistency CDC(M), Robustness Retention RR(M), and Efficiency E(M). We evaluate CLIP, BLIP, LXMERT, Gemma-3-4B, and Qwen-2.5VL-3B-Instruct across retrieval, captioning, and reasoning downstream tasks. The results reveal notable differences between capability-oriented and reliability-oriented rankings. Qwen-2.5VL-3BInstruct achieves the strongest overall capability (R@1 = 82.7%, BLEU-4 = 47.2%, CIDEr = 141.6, CDC = 0.91), whereas CLIP records the lowest latency (31 ms) and memory footprint (0.9 GB).

Vision-language models (VLMs) with varying performance and resource requirements are widely deployed, making it difficult for users to select the most appropriate one among numerous VLM candidates. Existing work reveals the performance paradox phenomenon in language models and focuses on routing methods to solve it. However, developing a router for VLM selection is still a critical yet challenging problem, which primarily faces: 1) lack of specialized data, 2) ineffective feature representation, and 3) rigid model space and costly adaptation. In this paper, we construct a multimodal dataset for VLM selection, containing the outputs of seven mainstream VLMs on 32,626 unique image-text queries. We then propose ARMS, a router for VLM selection. ARMS enhances input signals with VLM profiles, employs a simple but effective architecture to improve representations of queries and VLM capabilities. To improve ARMS' adaptation to new VLMs, we propose two extension training strategies: incremental training and independent training. Experimental results on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution test sets demonstrate the effectiveness of ARMS. In particular, using our training strategy, ARMs (only 800M in size) can adapt to a broader VLM space and defeat commercial models like GPT-4o that are hundreds of times larger in scale. Our code, models, and datasets are available in the anonymous repository.