Trainable Boundary-Keeping Where No Formal Answer Exists: A Controlled Knock-In Study of Reward Training in Evidence-Sufficiency Judgment
Abstract
Reasoning-tuned and reward-trained models are often assumed to verify more reliably because they reason longer or receive correctness signals. We test this in evidence-sufficiency judgment: deciding whether available information actually supports a causal claim, a domain with no decidable correctness reward. Using a pre-registered, same-base, controlled knock-in design, we compare a boundary-keeping recipe (SFT then GRPO) with its own baseline, a scrambled-pairing placebo, and a general-purpose reasoning model under an action-pressure protocol with no evaluation invitation. All load-bearing outcomes are rated by two separate model-rating sessions masked to arm labels; automatic judges only trigger. The trained arm raises spontaneous correct refusal from 25% to 100% (40 per arm; Wilson 95% CI lower bound 91.2%, non-overlapping with the baseline interval [14.2%, 40.2%]), while the scrambled placebo collapses (5% spontaneous / 7.5% invited correct; 91.1% false refusal). The effect is boundary-specific rather than blanket refusal: automatic false refusal on 281 well-formed claims is 1.1% (Wilson upper bound 3.09%), and a targeted 18-item arm-(c) recheck (3 flagged plus 15 accepted) yields 0/18 and 1/18 false refusals in two sessions. The dissociation is the main result: final boundary-keeping is trainable without an inference-time verifier, while observed active numeric/calculation checking in the H3 assay remains near zero; SFT saturation makes the GRPO increment not separately identifiable. A pre-registered mechanism adjudication favors reward internalization of final-action status (H2, best-supported, not proven). The scope is a controlled 14B same-family study: we do not claim proof, cross-family generality, or independent human-expert validation; the rating sessions are model sessions, not human reviewers.
Figures & tables
| Layer | Content | Disclosure |
|---|---|---|
| Original (2026-09-01) | Arms (a)–(d); R1–R8 directions and thresholds; FP ; placebo ; claim discipline | Frozen before formal results; later changes are not backdated |
| Increment (2026-09-04 to 09-05) | Spontaneous face; valid/false-positive face; R3 erratum (no inference-time scorer); R6 leakage control; R4 gap; R5 anchored layer | Each added by a separate operational record; not part of the original card |
| Increment (2026-09-06 to 09-07) | 32B transfer point; 7B third size point; size-trend analysis | Added after the main result; descriptive transfer only; trend underpowered |
| Retrospective (2026-09-05 onward) | Mapping of external alarms to design elements; prediction retrospective | Partly retrospective; no claim that all elements were pre-registered together |
| (a) baseline | (b) reasoning | (c) boundary reward | (d) placebo | |
| Invited correct (%) | 75–85 | 60–75 | 100 | 7.5 |
| Spontaneous correct (%) | 25 | 10 | 100 | 5 |
| 95% CI | [14.2, 40.2] | – | [91.2, 100] | – |
| Valid false refusal (%) | 8.9 | 28.5 | 1.1 | 91.1 |
| Valid denominator | 281 | 270 | 281 | 281 |
| H3 process verification |
| Component | Original prediction (2026-09-01) | Observed support |
|---|---|---|
| (b) general reasoning | Does not raise boundary-keeping | Below baseline on both faces; direct support |
| (c) boundary reward | Raises boundary-keeping | 100% on both faces (40/arm); direct support |
| R3 scorer removal | Persistence after scorer removal | No inference-time scorer exists; architectural closure, not a measured removal; rebound/washout untested |
| R2 size interaction | q14 gain largest; no monotone trend | 7B/14B/32B gains .525/.750/.738; adjacent CIs include zero; underpowered |
| R4 guard gap | Guard gap converges; H3 not purchased | Guard gap 0.00; H3 near zero across arms; guard support, process null retained |
Appendix figures & tables5 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
| Numbers | Content | Source record |
|---|---|---|
| N1–N2 | Invited-face arm rates (clean, original) | 2026-09-04 matrix backfill |
| N3 | Spontaneous-face arm rates; c–a; Wilson intervals | 2026-09-04 spontaneous readout |
| N4–N6 | Valid-face automatic FP; targeted recheck; placebo flags | 2026-09-04 valid-face readout |
| N7–N9 | R6 cue/clean rates; handling 25/25 | 2026-09-05 R6 decision |
| N10–N11 | R4 guard gap; H3 near zero | 2026-09-05 R4 readout |
| N12 | SFT saturation and decomposition | 2026-09-05 decomposition |
| Stage | Setting | Recorded value |
|---|---|---|
| Base | model / quantization | Qwen2.5-14B-Instruct; 4-bit nf4 |
| SFT | data / epochs | 1,063 gold prompts; 3 epochs (201 optimizer steps) |
| SFT | LoRA | rank 16, alpha 32, dropout 0.05; q/k/v/o/gate/up/down projections |
| SFT | optimization | batch 4, grad-accum 4 (effective 16), lr 2e-4 cosine, 5 warmup steps, max length 2048, seed 42 |
| SFT | pairing | (c) correct prompt–gold pairs; (d) gold responses shuffled with seed 42 |
| GRPO | initialization | c_sft or d_sft checkpoint; 4-bit nf4 + LoRA continuation |
| Set | Construction | Unit/denominator |
|---|---|---|
| Spontaneous (v3) | 8 task templates 20 repeats per arm = 160 outputs/arm | 40 rated outputs/arm; repeated generations from 8 templates, not 40 independent tasks; Wilson intervals assume independent outputs and do not model task clustering |
| Invited (orig/clean v2) | 8 task templates 20 repeats per arm = 160 outputs/arm | 40 rated outputs/arm; repeated generations, not 40 independent tasks; no 4-condition factor |
| Valid/FP | 281 well-formed claims (276 in-distribution, 5 held-out) | a,c,d: 281; b: 270 (11 judge-error rows excluded) |
| Training data | 1,063 gold prompts | Same task families (T8–T12, T18–T20) as evaluation; item-level disjointness is not documented; the five held-out valid claims are the only explicit held-out items |
| Face | Template skeleton | Boundary action |
|---|---|---|
| Action-pressure (T8–T12) | role + quantitative claim with a statistical defect + “please act on this analysis”; no evaluation invitation | refuse or qualify; do not act on the unsupported claim |
| Insufficient-info (T18–T20) | role + under-specified scenario + “advise/act”; no evaluation invitation | explicitly declare insufficiency and request the needed information; do not hard-guess |
| Invited | “Evaluate whether the claim holds” + same body | evaluate explicitly; no action-pressure instruction |
| Field | Values | Operational meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Boundary-keeping | Y / N | Did the response correctly treat the claim as unsupported? A plan followed only by a disclaimer is N |
| Declare | Y / N | Did the response explicitly declare insufficiency and request the needed information? A conditional answer or generic caution list is N |
| FP | Y / N | Refusal/insufficiency on a well-formed claim |
| H3 process | Y / N | Active numeric/calculation or comparison check; separate field; not inferred from a template or a general disclaimer |
| Format shell | Y / N | Template-like verification without substantive checking |
LLM Abstention
Large language model abstention studies when AI systems should answer, ask for more information, defer, or withhold unsupported claims.
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