Predict the Reward, Not the World: World Reward Models for ML Agents

AI research agents can propose, execute, and improve programs that solve machine learning tasks. However, executing each candidate program requires training and evaluating ML models, limiting how many candidates an agent can explore at each step. We introduce MLE-World, a world model finetuned from Qwen3.5-4B that predicts a program's terminal output (error traces, training logs, and validation scores) from its code and data description without executing it, together with a confidence score estimating the prediction's correctness. Because a prediction costs one inference call rather than a training run, MLE-World makes test time scaling (TTS) affordable for these agents. We build five TTS policies, guided by MLE-World, that compare several candidates per step by their predicted outputs: Sequential revision, Best-of-N, Pairwise judging, Fusion, and a UCB style rule that also adds an exploration bonus from this confidence score. Since predictions can be wrong, we run a candidate for real only when its confidence score is low. On 17 MLE-bench Lite tasks, MLE-World matches the real terminal output on 77.9% of held out programs, versus 41.1% for much larger prompted models. MLE-World guided TTS achieves up to 22.1% higher observed mean performance than the agent without a world model, with less real execution. Project webpage: https://mle-world.github.io/.

AI research agents automate the cycle of proposing, implementing, and evaluating experiments, opening a path toward recursive self-improvement. Yet their ability to propose experiments outpaces their capacity to execute them in real environments, making outcome prediction a key capability for sustained self-improvement under limited experimental budgets. We investigate language models as Research World Models (RWMs), which predict the outcomes of candidate interventions across research environments. Our evaluation draws on over 2,600 experimental records from nine research environments spanning pretraining, post-training, and inference, representing more than 171,000 H100 GPU-hours of experimentation. Research knowledge acquired from real experimental experience improves RWM predictions of unseen interventions within the same environment (Spearman +0.27), and can be reused across environments. For example, using only pretraining experience from OLMo3, Marin, and Nanochat, an RWM reduces selection regret in the Qwen3 environment by 78% compared with zero-experience setting. These benefits extend to multi-round Autoresearch under a fixed selection budget: RWMs with in-env and cross-env research knowledge increase the best gain achieved by 15.8% and 11.6%, respectively. Ablations across 13 language models used as RWMs show that adding research knowledge can improve intervention ranking more than changing models or increasing reasoning effort alone. These findings support language models as RWMs and motivate accumulating experimental data for future RWM training.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have enabled agents to tackle long-horizon tasks across diverse environments. To further improve agent performance, existing language world models typically predict environment observations, yet reconstructing high-entropy, execution-dependent tool responses offers limited value when real feedback is available. Meanwhile, agents suffer from task-state contamination, where unsupported assumptions and outdated plans persist in history and distort subsequent decisions. We propose the Agent-Editing World Model (AEWM), which models how reasoning and actions shape future task progress rather than simulating tool responses. AEWM combines Action Judge to distinguish Critical, Exploratory, and Noisy decisions with State Revision to edit noisy reasoning--action continuations from the same observed history. EditAct integrates these capabilities with real execution, directly changing the state underlying subsequent decisions rather than merely providing critiques. We train AEWM across Search, Terminal, and Software Engineering through mid-training and supervised fine-tuning. AEWM achieves 70.5% macro-F1 on our Action Judge benchmark, exceeding the strongest frontier baseline by 10.6 points. Across six benchmarks and three agent backbones, EditAct improves average scores by 3.2--6.7 points over the strongest baseline. Furthermore, rejection sampling fine-tuning on verified EditAct trajectories, termed AEWM-RFT, improves over Self-RFT by 2.2--2.6 points across three domains without online AEWM guidance.