Discovery of Diverse and Realistic Financial Tail-Risk Using Generative Flow Networks

Deep generative models are increasingly used as simulators for downstream decision-making under data scarcity, but in risk-sensitive applications their usefulness depends on rare adverse scenarios rather than typical samples. Standard generative objectives prioritize bulk distributional fidelity, leaving low-probability tails vulnerable to localized optimization noise and making tail-dependent functionals unstable under finite simulation budgets. We introduce Diachronic Sample Integration (DSI), a test-time inference framework that ensembles generated samples across checkpoints from a stochastic training trajectory. DSI targets a checkpoint-mixture distribution that averages checkpoint-specific tail fluctuations rather than relying on a single brittle endpoint. We formalize this mechanism through a finite-budget bias-variance theory. Empirically, across multivariate synthetic processes and high-frequency trading data, DSI substantially reduces tail-estimation error compared to single-checkpoint baselines under fixed simulation budgets, outperforming standard diffusion and state-of-the-art tail-aware baselines without modifying the generative objective.

We introduce Deep-MKV-TS, a path-dependent McKean-Vlasov framework for financial scenario generation. The stochastic dynamics are chosen by matching selected path and volatility features of generated scenarios to those observed in the data. Starting from an interpretable reference model, Deep-MKV-TS preserves the reference drift and adjusts its volatility, while a regularization penalty limits unnecessary departures from the calibrated dynamics. We solve the resulting control problem using a neural, sample-based implementation of the stochastic maximum principle. We validate the method against an exactly computable oracle. On Heston and Heston-mixture models, Deep-MKV-TS substantially reduces path-dependent and volatility-related deficiencies of the reference model. In delayed-volatility experiments, the correction remains effective as the forecasting horizon increases, while direct training becomes less reliable. On held-out intraday equity-index futures, the corrected model improves conditional forecasts relative to the reference and reaches a level of performance comparable to flexible generative and historical baselines. The resulting scenarios also support greater exposure than the reference under a fixed drawdown-risk target. These results show that path-dependent McKean-Vlasov control can enrich an interpretable reference model without replacing it.

Fine-tuning pre-trained diffusion and flow models to optimize downstream utilities is central to real-world deployment. Existing entropy-regularized methods primarily maximize expected reward, providing no mechanism to shape tail behavior. However, tail control is often essential: the lower tail determines reliability by limiting low-reward failures, while the upper tail enables discovery by prioritizing rare, high-reward outcomes. In this work, we present Tail-aware Flow Fine-Tuning (TFFT), a principled and efficient distributional fine-tuning algorithm based on the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). We address two distinct tail-shaping goals: right-CVaR for seeking novel samples in the high-reward tail and left-CVaR for controlling worst-case samples in the low-reward tail. Unlike prior approaches that rely on non-linear optimization, we leverage the variational dual formulation of CVaR to decompose it into a decoupled two-stage procedure: a lightweight one-dimensional threshold optimization step, and a single entropy-regularized fine-tuning process via a specific pseudo-reward. This decomposition achieves CVaR fine-tuning efficiently with computational cost comparable to standard expected fine-tuning methods. We demonstrate the effectiveness of TFFT across illustrative experiments, high-dimensional text-to-image generation, and molecular design.