Outstrumental Variable Regression

Causal questions often arise in systems that evolve in continuous time. While instrumental variable (IV) methods provide a principled approach to identify causal effects in static or discrete-time settings, even in the presence of unobserved confounding, they do not yet extend to continuous-time dynamics. In this work, we develop an IV framework for stationary continuous-time stochastic processes parameterized by stochastic differential equations (SDE), where the instrument itself takes the form of a stochastic process. We encode the structural sparsity and causal effects directly at the infinitesimal level of the drift, and contrast these assumptions with the IV assumptions on the discretized version of the same process. Based on these structural assumptions, we derive moment restrictions using path-valued instruments. We show how these restrictions simplify for Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes and present an identification condition together with a corresponding consistent estimation method. Finally, we extend our estimation framework to nonlinear causal effects by expressing the path-based moment restrictions leveraging the signature kernel. Empirically, our method recovers causal effects in confounded continuous-time systems where maximum-likelihood-based estimation and discrete-time IV methods are systematically biased.

Unobserved confounding is a key challenge when estimating causal effects from a treatment on an outcome. In this work, we assume that we observe a single, potentially multi-dimensional proxy variable of the unobserved confounder and that we know the mechanism that generates the proxy from the confounder. Under an assumption called Single Proxy Identifiability of Causal Effects or simply SPICE, we prove that this error mechanism is complete and causal effects are identifiable. We extend the proxy-based causal identifiability results by Kuroki and Pearl (2014); Pearl (2010) to multi-dimensional continuous settings, more flexible functional relationships and a broader class of distributions. Further, we develop a neural network based estimation framework, SPICE-Net, to estimate causal effects, which is applicable to both discrete and continuous treatments.

Finding which variables cause which others in multivariate time series, and at what lags, is central to science and policy, yet existing methods force a choice between flexible confounder adjustment, data-driven lag selection, and inference that controls the false discovery rate (FDR). ORACLE-VARX does all three in one pipeline. First, double/debiased machine learning (DML) removes nonlinear confounder effects from the outcomes and the lagged series. Second, adaptive causal lag estimation (ACLE) picks the lag order at each time step by sequential significance tests, tracking regime changes. Third, entry-wise $z$-tests with Benjamini--Hochberg correction select directed edges at a target FDR. We prove that in each rolling window, the debiased coefficients are asymptotically normal around a window-averaged target, so their $z$-tests are asymptotically valid. On a synthetic benchmark with time-varying structure and nonlinear confounding, ORACLE-VARX (LightGBM) tracks the true lag order best (RMSE $0.96$ vs $1.1$--$1.5$), has edge FDR $0.047$, close to PCMCI ($0.045$) and below VAR ($0.129$) and VAR-LiNGAM ($0.187$), and forecasts better than all three. On nine U.S. sector ETFs with macroeconomic confounders, it yields interpretable causal graphs whose lag order rises in high-volatility regimes.