Influence

As algorithms increasingly mediate competitive decision-making, their influence extends beyond individual outcomes to shaping strategic market dynamics. In our experiment, we examined how algorithmic advice affects human behavior in a classic economic game with a unique, non-collusive, and analytically traceable equilibrium. Participants (N = 129) played a Cournot quantity competition with equilibrium-aligned or strategically biased algorithmic recommendations. While individualized equilibrium advice supported stable convergence, collusively downward-biased advice led to sustained underproduction and supracompetitive profits - hallmarks of tacit collusion. Participants' quantities converged faster and more consistently toward individualized than collective equilibrium advice, potentially due to an objective quality advantage or greater perceived ownership of the former. These findings demonstrate that algorithmic advice can function as a strategic signal, shaping coordination even without explicit communication. The results echo real-world concerns about algorithmic collusion and underscore the need for careful design and oversight of algorithmic decision-support systems in competitive environments.

In networked environments, it is common for users to share recommendations about content, products, services, and possible courses of action. Whether these recommendations are accepted and acted upon is highly context-dependent, influenced by the characteristics of the sender and recipient, the nature of their relationship, the attributes of the recommended item, and the communication context. Consequently, probabilities of peer influence exhibit substantial heterogeneity across individuals and settings. Accurate estimation of these probabilities is key to understanding information diffusion processes and to improving the effectiveness of viral marketing strategies. However, learning these probabilities from data is challenging; static data may capture correlations between peer recommendations and peer actions but fails to reveal influence relationships. Online learning algorithms can learn these probabilities from interventions but either waste resources by learning from random exploration or optimize for rewards, thus favoring exploration of the space with higher influence probabilities. In this work, we study learning peer influence probabilities under a contextual linear bandit framework. We show that a fundamental trade-off can arise between regret minimization and estimation error, characterize all achievable rate pairs, and propose an uncertainty-guided exploration algorithm that, by tuning a parameter, attains any pair within this trade-off. Our experiments on semi-synthetic network datasets show the advantages of our method over static methods and contextual bandits that ignore this trade-off.

From the printing press to social media, innovations in communication technology have repeatedly reshaped how ideas spread through human culture. Chatbots powered by generative artificial intelligence constitute a new medium, encoding cultural patterns in their neural representations and disseminating them in conversations with hundreds of millions of people. Whether these patterns transmit into human language, and ultimately shape human culture, is a fundamental question. While fully quantifying the causal impact of a chatbot like ChatGPT on human culture is challenging, lexical shifts in human spoken communication may offer an early indicator. Here we show that words preferentially generated by ChatGPT, such as delve, showcase, boast, intricacies and meticulous, increased abruptly in spontaneous human speech. A synthetic-control analysis of 737,083 hours of conversation from 824,634 podcast episodes, screened for unscripted speech, causally links this shift to ChatGPT's release. The measurable influence on spontaneous speech suggests that humans internalize the lexical choices of large language models (LLMs). A preregistered experiment (N = 496) confirms they do, as a brief chatbot interaction led participants to adopt its words as their own, persisting past a distractor task and confirmed in forced lexical choice, indicating entrenchment in the active vocabulary. Together these results show that machines trained on human data now feed their own traits back into human language, integrating LLMs into the ongoing processes of cultural evolution.. This coupling raises concerns about linguistic homogenization and the capacity of a few major AI providers for latent cultural influence at scale.

In many applications, researchers are interested in the direct and indirect causal effects of a treatment or exposure on an outcome of interest. Mediation analysis offers a rigorous framework for identifying and estimating these causal effects. For binary treatments, efficient estimators for the direct and indirect effects are presented by Tchetgen Tchetgen and Shpitser (2012) based on the influence function of the parameter of interest. These estimators possess desirable properties such as multiple-robustness and asymptotic normality while allowing for slower than root-n rates of convergence for the nuisance parameters. However, in settings involving continuous treatments, these influence function-based estimators are not readily applicable without making strong parametric assumptions. In this work, utilizing a kernel smoothing approach, we propose an estimator suitable for settings with continuous treatments inspired by the influence function-based estimation strategy. Our proposed approach employs cross-fitting, relaxing the smoothness requirements on the nuisance functions and allowing them to be estimated at slower rates than the target parameter. Additionally, similar to influence function-based estimators, our proposed estimator is multiply robust and asymptotically normal, allowing for inference in settings where parametric assumptions may not be justified.