Latent Variable Models

In applied statistics and machine learning, the gold standards used for training are often biased and almost always noisy. Dawid and Skene's justifiably popular crowdsourcing model adjusts for rater sensitivity and specificity, but fails to capture distributional properties of rating data gathered for training, which in turn biases training. In this study, we introduce a general purpose measurement-error model with which we can infer consensus categories by adding item-level effects for difficulty, discriminativeness, and guessability. We further show how to constrain the bimodal posterior of these models to avoid adversarial raters. We validate our model's goodness of fit with posterior predictive checks, the Bayesian analogue of $χ^2$ tests, and assess its predictive accuracy using leave-one-out cross-validation. We illustrate our new model with two well-studied data sets, binary rating data for caries in dental X-rays and implication in natural language.

Psychiatry research seeks to understand the manifestations of psychopathology in behavior, as measured in questionnaire data, by identifying a small number of latent factors that explain them. While factor analysis is the canonical tool for this purpose, the resulting factors may not be interpretable, and may also be subject to confounding variables. Moreover, missing data are common, and explicit imputation is often required. To overcome these limitations, we introduce Interpretability Constrained Questionnaire Factorization (ICQF), a non-negative matrix factorization method with regularization tailored for questionnaire data. Our method aims to promote factor interpretability and solution stability. We provide an optimization procedure with theoretical convergence guarantees, and an automated procedure to determine latent dimensionality accurately. We validate these procedures using realistic synthetic data. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in a widely used general-purpose questionnaire, in two independent datasets (the Healthy Brain Network and Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development studies). Specifically, we show that ICQF preserves diagnostic information across a range of disorders, outperforming competing methods for smaller dataset sizes, and improves interpretability, as assessed by our clinical research collaborators and co-authors. This suggests that the regularization in our method matches domain characteristics, in addition to satisfying qualitative desiderata.

Causal discovery aims to learn causal structures up to certain symmetries. Diverse populations or changing environments give rise to heterogeneous data in the following sense: each population/environment is a ``source'' which idiosyncratically determines the forms of causal effects. From this perspective, the source is a latent common cause for every observed variable. While some methods for causal discovery can work around latent confounding in special cases, a global confounder poses a significant challenge. The only known ways to deal with latent global confounding involve making assumptions that limit structural equations and/or noise functions. We demonstrate that globally confounded causal structures can still be identified with arbitrary structural equations and noise functions, so long as the number of latent classes remains small relative to the size and sparsity of the underlying DAG. The approach relies on agglomerating variables into large-enough matrices of moments, whose ranks directly reveal graphical properties of the causal structure. We also provide a statistical test to test the rank of these matrices.