Markov Models

We introduce the Switching Non-Stationary Markov Decision Process (SNS-MDP) framework, in which the environment transitions among a finite set of MDPs governed by a latent Markov chain while the agent observes only the external state. We show that the long-term effect of this switching is equivalent to stationary dynamics parameterized by the stationary distribution of the hidden Markov chain. For fixed policies, we derive a closed-form expression for the SNS value function and prove that standard temporal-difference (TD) learning converges to it almost surely despite persistent non-stationarity. We further establish that policy iteration converges to the optimal policy of the equivalent averaged environment, and prove that tabular Q-learning converges almost surely to the optimal Q-function. The framework is validated on a wireless communication network with Markovian channel noise, demonstrating its practical efficacy for decision-making in rapidly time-varying systems.

We study a structured class of Markov Decision Processes, known as Exo-MDPs, in which the state space is partitioned into exogenous and endogenous components. Exogenous states evolve stochastically, independent of the agent's actions, while endogenous states evolve deterministically based on both state components and actions. Exo-MDPs capture many operations research settings, including inventory control, resource management, and ride-sharing. Our first contribution is structural: we establish a representational equivalence between discrete MDPs, Exo-MDPs, and discrete linear mixture MDPs. Our second contribution is statistical. We characterize the minimax regret of learning in Exo-MDPs when the effective dimension r is small relative to the endogenous state and action spaces. When the exogenous states are unobserved, we prove matching upper and lower regret bounds of order $Θ(Hr \sqrt{K})$ over $K$ episodes of horizon $H$, where $r$ is the effective dimension of the Exo-MDP. When exogenous states are observed, the minimax regret improves to $Θ(H\sqrt{ r K})$, revealing a $Θ(\sqrt{r})$ statistical gap due to observation of the exogenous states. These results show that Exo-MDPs decouple sample complexity from action space and endogenous state space. We validate these insights with experiments on inventory control and resource allocation.

This paper develops on algebraic grounds a polynomial time exact linear solution to the hard combinatorial problem of marginal inference in Markov random field (MRF) models under general assumptions. To prove our claim, we first implicitly remodel a MRF joint distribution as the unique solution of some linear identity assuming its clique potential functions (equivalently, its individual conditional distributions) to be specified. Then, by assuming an arbitrary point subset, we relax accordingly such a (global) linear identity for deriving a second linear identity, solely, acting on a polynomial time number of entries (e.g.; local marginals or Fourier frequencies) of a solution. Then, we show, only using linear algebraic techniques, that such an identity enables to capture all the entries necessary for the exact reconstruction of an MRF marginal distribution, thus, allowing to solve for the latter, exactly and in polynomial time, using a standard linear solver. Last, but not least, this paper probably solves, once and for all, the P = NP conjecture.