Uncertainty Estimation for VLA Models

VLA: Vision-Language-Action

Overview

This field studies how Vision-Language-Action models can estimate whether their actions are likely to succeed, especially during long tasks or under unfamiliar conditions. Approaches include measuring disagreement across ensembles or perturbed models, analyzing action and attention signals, and using conformal prediction or calibrated confidence heads; estimates may be combined across time to catch brief risky moments. These signals can support failure detection, safer abstention, adaptive reasoning, and choosing new demonstrations for training, with benchmarks such as LIBERO used to evaluate them. A central challenge is making confidence both well-calibrated under distribution shift and inexpensive enough to use during real-time control.

Latest papers

32 papers3 papers in the last four weeks, down 25% on the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

Dec 1, 2025

Transport Discrepancy as a Reliability Signal for Vision-Language-Action Models

Vision-language-action (VLA) models that generate continuous action chunks via flow matching lack an internal signal for judging whether a given prediction is reliable. Distribution shift and long-horizon rollouts can push backbone representations away from the region the action head decodes reliably, yet the policy has no mechanism to detect or react to this drift. We observe that the cost of transporting observation features to the action representation in a shared feature space rises precisely when such drift occurs, providing a per-step reliability estimate without extra supervision. Building on this observation, we propose DiG (Discrepancy Gate), a lightweight plug-in module for flow-matching VLA policies. DiG computes a sliced Wasserstein transport cost between backbone features and the action expert's own input projection, maps it through an exponential gate, and uses the gate to modulate both a residual feature refinement and the training loss. At inference time, the gate enables DiG-Refinefine, an iterative refinement process that corrects action chunks before execution. Experiments on both simulation and real-world scenarios show that DiG consistently improves success rates, with the largest gains under distribution shift and on long-horizon tasks.
Jul 23, 2025

Confidence Calibration in Vision-Language-Action Models

Trustworthy robot behavior requires not only high levels of task success but also that the robot can reliably quantify how likely it is to succeed. To this end, we present a first-of-its-kind study of confidence calibration in vision-language-action (VLA) foundation models, which map visual observations and natural language instructions to low-level robot motor commands. We establish a confidence estimation baseline for VLAs, examine how task success relates to calibration error and how calibration evolves over time, and introduce two lightweight techniques to remedy the miscalibration we observe: prompt ensembles and action-wise Platt scaling. Our aim in this study is to begin to develop the tools and conceptual understanding necessary to render VLAs trustworthy via reliable uncertainty quantification.