AI-driven Prices for Externalities and Sustainability in Production Markets

An agentic market is a decentralized serving-time market where AI agents bid to claim each user prompt. An agent's bid is based on its expected value for the prompt, which is the expectation of the reward for its response minus its inference costs. First-price auctions (FPAs), in which the highest bidder pays its bid and receives the prompt, are a natural way to allocate prompts in such a market, since they are simple and transparent to run, and do not require central knowledge of private capabilities and costs. However, FPAs are not truthful: participants may bid less than their true value in the hope of a larger profit, and the prompt may then be allocated to someone other than the bidder who values it the most. This welfare loss is quantified by the $\textit{price-of-anarchy}$ (PoA). In this paper, we argue that agentic markets are likely to possess features that reduce the price-of-anarchy. The first is a $\textit{competitive floor}$, which occurs when multiple bidders usually value the prompt above some baseline share of the optimal welfare (e.g., because the best models are often distilled into cheaper alternatives, which perform similarly). We show that competition among them then limits the welfare loss, which can be driven to zero as the floor rises. The second feature is $\textit{near-independence}$ of values after conditioning on the prompt, which occurs when most of the predictable variation in the expected value is determined by the difficulty of the prompt. As the value distribution approaches conditional independence, we can derive an efficiency guarantee that approaches a factor of $1 - 1/e^2$ of the optimal welfare. Thus, both features give rise to welfare lower bounds that are significantly better than the well-known general case of $1 - 1/e$. We validate these results empirically using auctions with strategic bidders simulated on the EmbedLLM prompt routing dataset.

Online resource allocation faces two coupled challenges: (1) allocating scarce resources efficiently under uncertain future demand, and (2) ensuring that agents report task valuations and requirements truthfully (strategyproofness). Reinforcement Learning (RL) adapts allocation decisions through experience but does not necessarily ensure strategyproofness. Existing strategyproof RL uses a linear allocation rule, which limits the resource interactions it can represent. Neural mechanism design methods offer greater expressiveness, but provide only approximate incentive guarantees. Against this background, we introduce the first strategyproof deep RL mechanism for online resource allocation. It integrates three novel components: (i) a monotonic neural network that learns nonlinear interactions by construction (higher reported value cannot reduce acceptance, while a longer reported duration or larger resource requirement cannot increase it); (ii) a generalised critical payment: the lowest accepted value, with all other inputs fixed; and (iii) training by either RL or imitation of an existing rule. Together, monotonicity and the critical payment ensure strategyproofness and individual rationality, while the neural rule provides flexibility and imitation improves training efficiency. Empirically, on a four-resource stream with two partner pairs that a linear difference cannot represent, the neural rule achieves 97.8% of an offline welfare upper bound, compared with 93.8% for a linear learner and 89.0% for first-come, first-served, closing 65% and 80% of the remaining optimality gap, respectively. Moreover, imitation reaches 97.5% in only 261 seconds, about 89 times faster than RL.

The tragedy of the commons poses a multi-agent safety problem: reward-seeking agents can deplete a shared resource, and cooperation among its users does not itself specify how much must be preserved. We make preservation an explicit requirement by formulating a regenerative commons as a constrained Markov game or a constrained multi-agent MDP with a designer-specified depletion budget. We develop a nonstationary Lagrangian framework that constructs a policy sequence from solutions of unconstrained games or cooperative control problems. Extending earlier time-average constructions, we introduce average-epoch solution concepts for reset episodes with discounted rewards and terminal costs. We prove a reward-independent feasibility certificate, cooperative feasibility and approximate optimality against feasible policy mixtures, and an extension to unbiased sampled costs. For self-interested agents, a constrained Nash certificate quantifies the price-dispersion term introduced by deviations that redistribute budget across epochs. Under the stated assumptions on solver accuracy and multiplier updates, these results give constrained policy-sequence guarantees using solutions of unconstrained problems. Experiments with constrained IPPO and MAPPO in a Gordon-Schaefer fishery examine how depletion budgets shape stock retention, harvest rewards, and price adaptation.