A Jump-Diffusion Framework for Irregular Time Series Generation

We develop a kernel method for generative modeling within the stochastic interpolant framework, replacing neural network training with linear systems. The drift of the generative SDE is $\hat b_t(x) = \nablaφ(x)^\topη_t$, where $η_t \in \mathbb{R}^P$ solves a $P\times P$ system computable from data, with $P$ independent of the data dimension $d$. Since estimates are inexact, the diffusion coefficient $D_t$ affects sample quality; the optimal $D_t^*$ from Girsanov diverges at $t=0$, but this poses no difficulty and we develop an integrator that handles it seamlessly. The framework accommodates diverse feature maps: scattering transforms, pretrained generative models, etc, enabling generation and model combination without neural network training. We demonstrate the approach on financial time series, turbulence, and image generation.

The performance of generative diffusion models is determined by the choice of the reference diffusion process connecting the empirical and prior distributions. Conventional approaches typically trade off simulation-free training against finite-time generation. We propose a framework for designing the reference process that achieves both simultaneously. The key idea is to prescribe tractable time-dependent conditional distributions and then construct the reference process realizing them as its marginals. This framework reveals that score matching is not fundamental to diffusion-model training but instead emerges naturally through reversal of the reference process. We further show that conditional flow matching arises as the small-noise limit of the proposed framework.

Irregular multivariate time series impose a trade-off for long-horizon forecasting: discrete methods can distort temporal structure via re-gridding, while continuous-time models often require sequential solvers prone to drift. To bridge this gap, we present Latent Laplace Diffusion (LLapDiff), a generative framework that models the target as a low-dimensional latent trajectory, enabling horizon-wide generation without step-by-step integration over physical time. We guide the reverse process utilizing a stable modal parameterization motivated by stochastic port-Hamiltonian dynamics, and parameterize its mean evolution in the Laplace domain via learnable complex-conjugate poles, enabling direct evaluation over irregular timestamps. We also link continuous dynamics to irregular observations through renewal-averaging analysis, which maps sampling gaps to effective event-domain poles and motivates a gap-aware history summarizer. Extensive experiments show that LLapDiff improves over baselines in long-horizon forecasting, and its continuous-time generative nature supports missing-value imputation by querying the same model at historical timestamps. Code is available at https://github.com/pixelhero98/LLapDiffusion.