Abstract
Accurate prediction of grape phenology is essential for timely vineyard management decisions, such as scheduling irrigation and fertilization, to maximize crop yield and quality. While traditional biophysical models calibrated on historical field data can be used for season-long predictions, they lack the precision required for fine-grained vineyard management. Deep learning methods are a compelling alternative but their performance is hindered by sparse phenology datasets, particularly at the cultivar level. We propose a hybrid modeling approach that combines multi-task learning with a recurrent neural network to parameterize a differentiable biophysical model. By using multi-task learning to predict the parameters of the biophysical model, our approach enables shared learning across cultivars while preserving biological structure, thereby improving the robustness and accuracy of predictions. Empirical evaluation using real-world and synthetic datasets demonstrates that our method significantly outperforms both conventional biophysical models and baseline deep learning approaches in predicting phenological stages, as well as other crop state variables such as cold-hardiness and wheat yield.
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Yu Luo, Xiaogang Zhu, Shan Zeng +4
Sep 8, 2026cs.LG
We present a real-world case study of multi-task learning (MTL) for temporal process modeling from limited data with temporally sparse labels. Specifically, we investigate multi-task learning for the important agricultural problem of predicting grape cold hardiness, which is the temperature at which lethal freezing occurs. Cold hardiness changes in response to weather and is difficult to measure directly in the field. Thus, growers rely on predictions to decide when to apply costly frost mitigation measures. We apply recurrent neural networks (RNNs) for daily cold-hardiness prediction from time series weather data. A major challenge is that the cold hardiness response varies across plant cultivars and ground-truth data for each cultivar is temporally sparse and limited. To address this challenge, we investigate multi-task learning (MTL) approaches for combining data, where different tasks correspond to different cultivars. We develop a variety of MTL architectures and evaluate them in both MTL and transfer learning settings. Our results show significant differences between architectures and that certain architectures are able to consistently outperform single-task learning and state-of-the-art scientific models. Additionally, we show similar results for the qualitatively different, but related, task of budbreak prediction. Further, improved accuracy for budbreak and cold hardiness is achieved by a single MTL model that simultaneously learns both tasks.
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Accurate modeling of leaf spectral reflectance from physiological and biochemical traits is essential for advancing remote sensing applications in plant science and precision agriculture. Widely used radiative transfer models, such as PROSPECT-PRO, rely on generalized trait-reflectance relationships developed from a wide range of species, which may not fully capture the spectral behavior of specific crops like grapevines. In this study, we developed a trait-to-spectra prediction model using a multi-head attention neural network trained on a grapevine-specific dataset that includes 16 leaf traits measured across multiple varieties, growth stages, and years. The model was evaluated using stratified 5-fold cross-validation and achieved an average coefficient of determination (R^2) of 0.84 and normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) of 1.52 percent, demonstrating high accuracy and generalizability. When compared to PROSPECT-PRO in forward mode, the neural network exhibited lower mean absolute error (MAE), especially in the near-infrared (NIR) and shortwave-infrared (SWIR) regions. These results emphasize the importance of species-specific modeling approaches and show that integrating biochemical and structural traits into data-driven architectures can significantly improve spectral prediction. The proposed model provides a robust framework for generating accurate leaf-level reflectance data, with potential applications in canopy trait retrieval, vineyard monitoring, and remote sensing-driven crop management.
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