Reinforcement Learning in MDPs with Information-Ordered Policies
Authors: Zhongjun Zhang, Shipra Agrawal, Ilan Lobel, Sean R. Sinclair, Christina Lee Yu
Organizations: Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Sciences, Northwestern University · Department of Industrial Engineering and Operations Research, Columbia University · Technology, Operations, and Statistics, Stern School of Business, New York University · School of Operations Research and Information Engineering, Cornell University
Many operational Markov decision processes provide structured information where a trajectory generated under one policy may also reveal how other policies would have performed. We formalize this through an information order over a parameterized policy class, writing πθ′⪯πθ when data collected under πθ can be used to estimate the long-run average cost of πθ′. We develop an epoch-based reinforcement learning algorithm for infinite-horizon average-cost MDPs with continuous state and action spaces that exploits this order through counterfactual inference. For a d-dimensional policy class whose information order has width w, the algorithm achieves O(HwdT/α) regret relative to the optimal policy in the class, where H is a bias span upper bound and α denotes an "information ratio". Thus, the width captures the effective exploration complexity of the problem, interpolating between full counterfactual feedback and unstructured policy learning. We instantiate the framework in lost-sales inventory systems with positive lead times, dual-sourcing systems governed by dual-index policies, and queues with state-dependent service rates. These applications yield new regret guarantees without requiring global convexity of the average-cost function or specialized arrival-rate structure. Numerical experiments show that exploiting the information order substantially improves learning performance over existing general-purpose and problem-specific benchmarks.
Figures & tables
Distribution
Algorithm
Inventory Control
Dual Sourcing
Queuing
Small
Large
Small
Large
Large
Exponential
Optimal (gθ∗)
2.5
39.1
1.9
20.3
9.5
ERM ( Sinclair et al. 2023b )
2.6(2%)
39.2(0%)
1.9(1%)
20.3(0%)
9.6(1%)
I OPEA
⋆2.6(3%)
40.1(2%)
⋆2.0(5%)
⋆26.0(28%)
⋆10.5(11%)
PPO ( Schulman et al. 2017 )
3.8(49%)
∘132.4(238%)
2.9(53%)
∘112.0(451%)
⋆9.8(3%)
SGD
⋆2.6(3%)
∘43.0(10%)
⋆2.1(10%)
∘55.2(172%)
–
Table 1: Average cost of the learned policy at the timestep gθT for T=105 (small-scale) and T=3×105 (large-scale) achieved by each algorithm, under three demand distributions. The queuing case study is estimated at T=3×105 . ⋆ indicates a significant improvement and ∘ a significant decrease over P roblem-Specific by Welch’s t -test with p<0.05 . In parentheses we report relative performance (gθT−gθ∗)/gθ∗ . F eedback Graph is omitted in large-scale due to compute constraints. The performance of SGD is omitted in the queuing models as it is essentially equivalent to PPO . See Table 4 for hyperparameters.
Figure 1: Comparison of the long‐run average cost gθ over time T for different algorithms in the small‐scale dual‐sourcing problem up to T=106 . We assume the demand follows the normal distribution as in Table 4 . For F eedback Graph ( Dann et al. 2020 ) , data are shown only to T=105 . I OPEA attains near‐optimal gain by T=104 ; B ASA ( Chen and Shi 2025 ) remains suboptimal and continues to decline even at T=106 ; F eedback Graph matches B ASA’s long‐run cost at T=105 but with much larger variance; P PO converges markedly slower than all other methods. SGD fails to converge effectively, as the problem is non-convex. Note that in some trials P PO and F eedback Graph may exceed the “Optimal” curve, because “Optimal” denotes the best dual index policy rather than the true problem‐wide optimum.
Symbol
Definition
Problem setting specifications
T
Total time horizon
X,Y,X∈Y
Two random variables, and shorthand for X measurable with respect to Y
S,A,P,C,s1
State and action space, transition distribution, cost function, starting state
Cˉ
Upper bound on one-step cost
Θ,θ
Policy class, and arbitrary policy in the policy class
Table 3: Comparison of regret, time, and space complexity under different structural assumptions. For Feedback Graph ( Dann et al. 2020 ) , p denotes the growth rate of the mas-number M , i.e., M=O((1/r)p) ; more details in Dann et al. (2020) .
Figure 2: An empirical illustration of non‐convexity in the long‐run average cost with respect to the base‐stock levels (zeθ,zrθ) under the lost‐sales dual index policy. Parameters are Lr=8 , Le=2 , cr=1 , ce=8 , h=1 , p=10 , and demand follows an exponential distribution with rate 3/40 . Costs are approximated by sample averages over T=105 steps, evaluated on a grid (zeθ,zrθ)∈{0,5,10,…,200}2 .
Small-scale
Large-scale
Inventory Control
Lead Time ( L )
2
6
Holding Cost ( h )
1
1
Lost-sales Penalty ( p )
10
10
P(Dt=0) ( γ )
0.3
0.3
Demand Support ( d )
[0,3]
[0,40]
Appendix
Table 4: Parameter specifications for the numerical simulations.
Figure 3: Numerical evidence on the applicability of I OPEA in the dual-index case study. Figure 3(a) examines the effective quantity governing H and α , namely E[Y2] , which can replace γ−Lr in the regret bound in Corollary 4.9 . Figure 3(b) reports the empirical Lipschitz constant L^Θ , and Figure 3(c) reports the end-to-end burn-in period. Figure 3(a) and Figure 3(c) are plotted on log–log scales, while Figure 3(b) uses a logarithmic scale only for the x -axis.
A lgorithm
Queuing
Decaying Arrival Rate
Fixed Arrival Rate
Optimal (gθ∗)
9.5
11.6
ERM ( Sinclair et al. 2023b )
9.6(1%)
11.6(0%)
I OPEA
⋆10.5(11%)
⋆13.1(13%)
PPO ( Schulman et al. 2017 )
⋆9.8(3%)
⋆11.8(2%)
Feedback Graph ( Dann et al. 2020 )
11.5(21%)
13.2(13%)
Appendix
Table 5: Queuing Performance under Decaying vs. Fixed Arrival Rates
Online reinforcement learning in infinite-horizon Markov decision processes (MDPs) remains less theoretically and algorithmically developed than its episodic counterpart, with many algorithms suffering from high ``burn-in'' costs and failing to adapt to benign instance-specific complexity. In this work, we address these shortcomings for two infinite-horizon objectives: the classical average-reward regret and the γ-regret. We develop a single tractable UCB-style algorithm applicable to both settings, which achieves the first optimal variance-dependent regret guarantees. Our regret bounds in both settings take the form O~(SAVar+lower-order terms), where S,A are the state and action space sizes, and Var captures cumulative transition variance. This implies minimax-optimal average-reward and γ-regret bounds in the worst case but also adapts to easier problem instances, for example yielding nearly constant regret in deterministic MDPs. Furthermore, our algorithm enjoys significantly improved lower-order terms for the average-reward setting. With prior knowledge of the optimal bias span ∥h⋆∥sp, our algorithm obtains lower-order terms scaling as ∥h⋆∥spS2A, which we prove is optimal in both ∥h⋆∥sp and A. Without prior knowledge, we prove that no algorithm can have lower-order terms smaller than ∥h⋆∥sp2SA, and we provide a prior-free algorithm whose lower-order terms scale as ∥h⋆∥sp2S3A, nearly matching this lower bound. Taken together, these results completely characterize the optimal dependence on ∥h⋆∥sp in both leading and lower-order terms, and reveal a fundamental gap in what is achievable with and without prior knowledge.
Guy Zamir, Matthew Zurek, Yudong Chen
Department of Computer Sciences, University of Wisconsin–Madison
Information-theoretic exploration is of primary interest in methodological studies of reinforcement learning (RL) and computational cognitive neuroscience, while the established RL theory builds regret guarantees on confidence sets. This situation leaves open the conditions under which the information-driven exploration found in nature is more advantageous than the exploration of the established RL theory. We put the state-of-the-art methods of these two paradigms, Active Inference (AIF) and Bayes-UCBVI, on an equal footing: both act through the same state abstraction of a tabular MDP with S states, and their greedy forms differ only in the exploration term. We find that AIF's information gain decays too fast to serve as a confidence width, locking greedy agents that explore by it out of the optimal action. Calibrating the information gain by a square root yields calibrated AIF, which attains regret of order T for an exact abstraction, but no better guarantee than Bayes-UCBVI for a fixed reward. When an adversary chooses rewards from the agent's data, Bayes-UCBVI's value-specific widths lock out, whereas calibrated AIF pays a factor S, which no goal-memoryless agent avoids on some MDP whose start states the adversary also chooses. Calibrated information gain thus acts as a reward-agnostic ℓ1 confidence set, preferable to value-specific widths when rewards are chosen from the agent's data, not when they are fixed.
Melih Kandemir, Mustafa Mert Çelikok
Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Southern Denmark
In reinforcement learning, an agent must explore an unknown environment to learn how to make good decisions. Unlike methods that can freely sample any state--action pair, an agent learning from a single trajectory must spend additional time navigating between states. It is therefore natural to expect that learning from a single trajectory requires more experience. In this paper, we show that this additional cost is not always necessary. For average-reward reinforcement learning, we develop an algorithm that learns where to collect information while ensuring that the required samples can be obtained efficiently. We establish an upper bound on the number of interactions needed to identify a near-optimal policy. Furthermore, we prove a matching information theoretic lower bound, showing that, for a broad class of environments and at sufficiently high accuracy, learning from a single trajectory is no harder in the worst case than learning with unrestricted access to state action samples. Our results reveal that the additional complexity cost of navigation can be avoided by adapting information gathering requirements to how the environment provides information.