Counterfactual Learning

Ask about this topic

Momentum

8 papers in the last four weeks, up 100% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

Jul 13Week of Sep 28
View on map

Latest papers 58

All topics
CardsList

  1. Counterfactual Route Optimization for Gaussian Head Avatar Modeling

    Oct 7, 2026Shikun Zhang, Yong Li, Yiqun Wang +23D Avatar GenerationMulti-Objective Optimization

    Department of Data Science and AI, Monash University, Australia · College of Computer Science, Chongqing University, China

  2. World Models Dream of Success: Diagnosing and Repairing Failure Insensitivity in Robot World Models

    Oct 6, 2026Jiuyi Xu, Xiao Hu, Meida Chen +3World Models for RoboticsAction-Conditioned World Models

    Colorado School of Mines · Northeastern University · Institute for Creative Technologies, University of Southern California +1

  3. Independent Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning with Counterfactual Semantic-Social World Models

    Oct 6, 2026Fernando Martinez, Tao Li, Yingdong Lu +1Sequential MARLAction-Conditioned World Models

    Department of Computer and Information Sciences, Fordham University, New York, NY, 10023, USA · Department of Systems Engineering, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, 999077, China · IBM Research, Yorktown Heights, NY, 10598, USA

  4. Counterfactual Generation via Flow Matching: Coupling-Sensitive End-to-End Rates

    Oct 1, 2026Yunrui Guan, Krishnakumar Balasubramanian, Shiva Prasad KasiviswanathanFlow MatchingCausal Counterfactual Generation

    Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Johns Hopkins University. · Amazon · Department of Statistics, University of California, Davis.

  5. ASCT: Attentive Search over Counterfactual Trees for Credit Assignment in Agentic Reinforcement Learning

    Sep 28, 2026Yang Li, Jinhan Yang, hai liu +8Agentic RLCredit Assignment in RL

    University of Hong Kong · The Chinese University of Hong Kong · Jiangxi Science and Technology Normal University +1

  6. Counterfactual Rollout Replay: Forkable Environments as Free Process Rewards for Software Engineering Agents

    Sep 27, 2026Yuanhao Li, Hongbo Wang, Xuhong Chen +2RL for Code GenerationSoftware Engineering Agents

    State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876, China · University of Luxembourg, Luxembourg

  7. OSCC: Certified Observation-Safe Coupling Optimization for Gradient-Noise Control in Imperfect-Information Learning

    Sep 27, 2026Miaobo Hu, Shuhao Hu, Xiaobo Guo +5Partially Observable RLPolicy Gradient Methods

    School of Artificial Intelligence, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China · Institute of Information Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

  8. PCQC: Privileged Counterfactual Question Credit for Multi-Turn Medical Dialogue

    Sep 23, 2026Chenxuan Li, Jiayi Wan, Xinrong Chen +3Clinical ReasoningMedical LLMs

    Peking University, Beijing, China · Department of Medical Bioinformatics, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China

  9. Dual-Frontier: When Can an Agent Trust Its World Model?

    Sep 22, 2026Huatai Zhu, Qiang Chen, Ziqian Kou +5World Model-Based PlanningModel-Based Planning

    Central South University · The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology · Xiangjiang Laboratory +2

  10. Conformal Policy Learning with Distribution-Free Safety Guarantees

    Sep 15, 2026Ying Jin, Naoki EgamiConformal PredictionCausal Inference

    Department of Statistics and Data Science, University of Pennsylvania · Department of Political Science & Statistics and Data Science Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

  11. scDEFT: A deep learning framework for drug-effect prediction and counterfactual reasoning

    Sep 9, 2026Murthy DevarakondaSingle-Cell Perturbation ModelingClinical Outcome Prediction

    Causal Data AI (causaldata.ai)

  12. Learned, Then Lost: A Measured Single-Example Counterfactual in Pre-training

    Aug 19, 2026Zachary Speck, Asa ShepardLanguage Model PretrainingMemorization in Language Models

    Arizona State University · Williams College

  13. Counterfactual Contrastive Analysis

    Aug 19, 2026Yunlong He, Pietro GoriCounterfactual ExplanationsImage Generation

    LTCI, Télécom Paris, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, France

  14. Low-Rank Dynamics-Effective Latent Carriers for Counterfactual Rollout in Learned World Models

    Aug 15, 2026Yang Liu, Yuming ChenWorld Model LearningLatent World Models

    College of Intelligent Robotics and Advanced Manufacturing, Fudan University Shanghai, China

  15. Chance-constrained selection of sequential intervention strategies from counterfactual estimates

    Aug 13, 2026Minkyoung Kim, Beakcheol JangStochastic OptimizationChance-Constrained Optimization

    Graduate School of Information, Yonsei University, 50 Yonsei-ro, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul, 03722, Republic of Korea

  16. A Distribution Mapping Approach to Counterfactually Fair Reinforcement Learning

    Aug 9, 2026Jianhan Zhang, Jitao Wang, John D. Piette +3Causal Counterfactual GenerationAlgorithmic Fairness

    University of Michigan · LSE

  17. Overcoming Statistical Bias in Action-Controllable World Models

    Aug 5, 2026Yuhong Shi, Zhenhao Chu, Jie Wei +3World ModelsAction-Conditioned World Models

    Institute of Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, China · China Mobile (Shanghai) Information and Communication Technology Co., Ltd., Shanghai, China · Zhongguancun Academy, Beijing, China

  18. Not Every Divergence Should Be Suppressed: Counterfactual Recoverability in On-Policy Distillation

    Aug 5, 2026De Jiang, Zhengyang Zhang, Kehong Yuan +1Language Model DistillationOn-Policy Distillation

  19. AlphaG-OPD: Reliability-Gated Sibling Counterfactuals for On-Policy Distillation in Symbolic Alpha Factor Discovery

    Aug 2, 2026Yaoyu SuQuantitative FinanceGenerative Flow Networks

  20. Class-Aware Reinforcement Learning for Counterfactual Explanation Generation

    Jul 30, 2026Muhammad Adil Saleem, Syed Ali Raza, Mary-Anne WilliamsCounterfactual ExplanationsCounterfactual Learning

    Department of Computer Science, Institute of Business Administration Karachi, University Road, Karachi, 75270, Pakistan. · Commonwealth Bank of Australia, The Foundry, 1 Locomotive St, Eveleigh NSW 2015, Sydney, 2015, NSW, Australia. · Stanford University, Stanford, 94305, California, USA. +1

  21. CHILL-Harness: Counterfactual Harness Learning for Efficient Reasoning in Long-Horizon Agents

    Jul 28, 2026Jiarun Fu, Lizhong Ding, Sida Chen +6Agent Harness OptimizationLong-Horizon LLM Agents

    School of Computer Science and Technology, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China

  22. Counterfactual Motion Reliability Learning for Robust UAV Tracking

    Jul 25, 2026Yuehai ChenVisual Object TrackingCounterfactual Learning

    Faculty of Electronics and Information Engineering and the Institute for Low-Altitude Regulation, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China

  23. Counterfactual Shapley Credit Assignment

    Jul 18, 2026Mingxuan Li, Kai-Zhan Lee, Elias BareinboimCredit Assignment in RLTemporal Credit Assignment

    Department of Computer Science, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA

  24. CausalGraphX: A Counterfactual Graph Neural Network Framework for Explainable Systemic Risk Assessment

    Jul 15, 2026Rabimba Karanjai, Hemanth Madhavarao, Lei Xu +1Causal Representation LearningAI Risk Management

    University of Houston · PayPal Inc. · Kent State University

  25. Counterfactual Optimal Action Trees (COAT): Interpretable Prescriptive Policies from Observational Data

    Jul 15, 2026Youssef Drissi, Markus Ettl, Shivaram Subramanian +2Decision Tree LearningDynamic Pricing

    IBM Research

  26. Resist and Update: Counterfactual Report Coordinates for Incentive-Compatible LLMs

    Jul 14, 2026Sen Yang, Yuen-Hei YeungLLM AlignmentCausal Interventions in Language Models

    Stern School of Business · New York University · Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences

  27. Play Like Champions: Counterfactual Feedback Generation in Latent Space

    Jun 30, 2026Andrzej Białecki, Adam Mastalerz, Han ZhouCounterfactual LearningAlgorithmic Recourse

    Warsaw University of Technology · Silesian University of Technology · University of British Columbia

  28. An Introduction to Causal Reinforcement Learning

    Jun 23, 2026Elias Bareinboim, Junzhe Zhang, Sanghack LeeReinforcement LearningCausal Inference

    Department of Computer Science Columbia University New York, USA · Graduate School of Data Science Seoul National University Seoul, Republic of Korea

  29. ConTex: Reformulating Counterfactual Generation For Time Series Forecasting

    Jun 16, 2026Jan Voets, Hasan Tercan, Tobias Meisen +1Explainable Time Series ForecastingCounterfactual Explanations

    Institute for Technologies and Management of Digital Transformation University of Wuppertal

  30. Faithful Action-unit Causal Reasoning for Counterfactually Faithful Emotion Explanations

    Jun 14, 2026Van Thong Huynh, Hong Hai Nguyen, Thuy Pham +2Counterfactual EvaluationCounterfactual Explanations

    Faculty of CSE, Ho Chi Minh City University of Technology (HCMUT), VNUHCM, Vietnam · Dept. of AI, FPT University, Vietnam · Faculty of DSAI, College of Technology, National Economic University, Vietnam +1

  31. WorldKernel: A World Model is the Coupling Kernel of Admissible Possible Worlds

    Jun 9, 2026Fabio RovaiStructural Causal ModelsCausal World Models

  32. Querying Counterfactuals on Tissue Graphs with Supervised Disentanglement

    Jun 7, 2026Abdul Moeed, Stefan Schrod, Martin Rohbeck +4Spatial TranscriptomicsDisentangled Representation Learning

    Division of Computational Genomics and Systems Genetics, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany · Helmholtz Information & Data Science School for Health, Germany · Genome Biology Unit, European Molecular Biology Laboratory, Heidelberg, Germany +4

  33. Are Good Generators Good Decision-Makers? Policy Learning for General Interventions via Retargeted Counterfactual Generation

    Jun 5, 2026Raphael C Kim, Jingsen Zhu, Ramin Zabih +1Reinforcement LearningCausal Counterfactual Generation

    Cornell Tech, Cornell University, New York, NY · Department of Biostatistics, Department of Population Health, New York University Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY

  34. Causal Longitudinal Prior-Fitted Networks for Counterfactual Outcome Prediction

    Jun 4, 2026Amirhossein Zare, Amirhessam Zare, Herlock Rahimi +2Structural Causal ModelsCounterfactual Prediction

    School of Medicine, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran. · Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA. · School of Medicine, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran. +2

  35. Benchmarking Counterfactual Prediction in Epidemic Time Series with Time-Varying Interventions

    Jun 4, 2026Wenhao Mu, Facundo Yan, Anik Mumssen +2Forecasting BenchmarksCounterfactual Prediction

    University of Michigan · Computer Science and Engineering · Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA +1

  36. Policy-Conditioned Counterfactual Credit for Verifiable Reinforcement Learning of Long-Horizon Language Agents

    Jun 3, 2026Renwei MengCredit Assignment in RLLong-Horizon Agent Evaluation

    Ahu

  37. CFCamo: A Counterfactual Detect-or-Abstain Framework for Camouflaged Object Detection

    May 28, 2026Suhang Li, Osamu Yoshie, Yuya IeiriSelective PredictionObject Hallucination in VLMs

    The authors are with the Graduate School of Information, Production and Systems, Waseda University, Fukuoka, Japan.

  38. On the Hidden Costs of Counterfactual Knowledge Training in LLM Unlearning

    May 26, 2026Xiaotian Ye, Xiaohan Wang, Mengqi Zhang +1Knowledge Conflicts in Language ModelsHallucination in Language Models

    Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications · Huazhong University of Science and Technology · Shandong University +1

  39. Geometry Adaptive Counterfactual Distribution Learning with Diffusion-Guided Smoothing

    May 25, 2026Kwangho KimSemiparametric InferenceCausal Inference

    Department of Statistics, Korea University

  40. Learning Spatiotemporal Sensitivity in Video LLMs via Counterfactual Reinforcement Learning

    May 21, 2026Dazhao Du, Jian Liu, Jialong Qin +7Counterfactual EvaluationVideo-Language Models

    Hong Kong University of Science and Technology · Tencent

  41. COAL: Counterfactual and Observation-Enhanced Alignment Learning for Discriminative Referring Multi-Object Tracking

    May 14, 2026Shukun Jia, Shiyu Hu, Yipei Wang +3Counterfactual LearningMulti-Object Tracking

    School of Automation, Southeast University, Nanjing, China · Key Laboratory of Measurement and Control of Complex Systems of Engineering, Ministry of Education, Nanjing, China · School of Physical & Mathematical Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore +1

  42. COLLATOR: Compositional Multi-Agent Orchestration with Counterfactual Reinforcement Learning

    May 14, 2026Xudong Chen, Yixin Liu, Hua Wei +1Multi-Agent System OptimizationMulti-Agent Orchestration

  43. Learning More from Less: Exploiting Counterfactuals for Data-Efficient Chart Understanding

    May 11, 2026Jianzhu Bao, Haozhen Zhang, Kuicai Dong +5Data VisualizationVLM Adaptation

    1Nanyang Technological University · 2Aumovio Singapore Pte. Ltd.

  44. Debiased Counterfactual Generation via Flow Matching from Observations

    May 8, 2026Hugh Dance, Johnny Xi, Peter Orbanz +1Flow MatchingCausal Counterfactual Generation

    Gatsby Computational Neuroscience Unit University College London · Department of Statistics University of British Columbia

  45. Three-in-One World Model: Energy-Based Consistency, Prediction, and Counterfactual Inference for Marketing Intervention

    May 8, 2026Junichiro NiimiCausal Effect EstimationWorld Model Learning

    1Meijo University

  46. ScriptHOI: Learning Scripted State Transitions for Open-Vocabulary Human-Object Interaction Detection

    May 6, 2026Minh Anh Nguyen, Quang Huy Tran, Bao Ngoc Le +3Counterfactual LearningHuman-Object Interaction

    Phenikaa University

  47. SpecPL: Disentangling Spectral Granularity for Prompt Learning

    May 6, 2026Jingtao Zhou, Xirui Kang, Feiyang Huang +1VLM AdaptationFrequency-Domain Feature Learning

    Department of Electrical Engineering, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR.

  48. CRAFT: Counterfactual-to-Interactive Reinforcement Fine-Tuning for Driving Policies

    May 6, 2026Keyu Chen, Nanfei Ye, Yida Wang +4Reinforcement LearningAutonomous Driving Planning

    School of Vehicle and Mobility, Tsinghua University · Li Auto Inc

  49. Counterfactual identifiability beyond global monotonicity: non-monotone triangular structural causal models

    May 6, 2026Pengcheng Tan, Jiang Chen, Dehui DuStructural Causal ModelsCausal Counterfactual Generation

    Shanghai Key Laboratory of Trustworthy Computing, East China Normal University

  50. Machine learning models for estimating counterfactuals in a single-arm inflammatory bowel disease study

    Apr 25, 2026Dan Liu, Fida K. Dankar, Jennifer C. deBruyn +4Causal Effect EstimationClinical Outcome Prediction

    Children’s Hospital of Eastern Ontario Research Institute, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada · School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada · Alberta Children’s Hospital, Calgary, Alberta, Canada +3

  51. DeepImagine: Learning Biomedical Reasoning via Successive Counterfactual Imagining

    Apr 24, 2026Youze Zheng, Jianyou Wang, Yuhan Chen +8LLM Fine-TuningCounterfactual Reasoning in Language Models

    Laboratory for Emerging Intelligence, University of California, San Diego · University of Chicago · Elsevier +1

  52. A Probabilistic Consensus-Driven Approach for Robust Counterfactual Explanations

    Apr 19, 2026Marcin Kostrzewa, Maciej Zięba, Jerzy StefanowskiCounterfactual ExplanationsConditional Generative Modeling

    Wrocław University of Science and Technology, Wrocław 50-347, Poland · Tooploox, Wrocław 53-601, Poland · Poznań University of Technology, Poznań 61-131, Poland

  53. AULLM++: Structured-Token-Conditioned Large Language Models for Micro-Expression Action Unit Detection

    Mar 9, 2026Zhishu Liu, Kaishen Yuan, Bo Zhao +2Facial Action Unit DetectionFacial Expression Recognition

    Great Bay University, Dongguan, China · The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou), Guangzhou, China · Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen, China

  54. Counterfactual Modeling with Fine-Tuned LLMs for Health Intervention Design and Sensor Data Augmentation

    Jan 21, 2026Shovito Barua Soumma, Asiful Arefeen, Stephanie M. Carpenter +2Counterfactual ExplanationsLLM Fine-Tuning

    College of Health Solutions, Arizona State University, Phoenix, AZ 85004, USA. · School of Computing and Augmented Intelligence, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85281, USA. · School of Nutritional Sciences and Wellness, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.

  55. Did Models Learn Sufficiently? Attribution-Guided Training via Subset-Selected Counterfactual Augmentation

    Nov 15, 2025Yannan Chen, Ruoyu Chen, Wei Wang +6Adversarial RobustnessOOD Generalization

    School of Cyber Science and Technology, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangdong Province, China · Institute of Perception, PC Laboratory, Guangdong Province, China · University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China +3

  56. Semiparametric Inference for Counterfactual Regression under Intervention-Driven Shift

    Apr 3, 2025Kwangho KimDistribution Shift RobustnessSemiparametric Inference

    Department of Statistics, Korea University

  57. SPARC: Scalable Path-Specific Counterfactual Fairness via Causal Conditional Independence

    Dec 6, 2024Bowei Tian, Yexiao He, Ziyao Wang +3Debiased MLAlgorithmic Fairness

    University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA · Clemson University, Clemson, SC 29634, USA

  58. Hierarchical Deep Counterfactual Regret Minimization

    May 27, 2023Jiayu Chen, Xudong Wu, Zhekai Wang +1Imperfect-Information GamesHierarchical RL

    The University of Hong Kong Hong Kong SAR · Peking University Beijing, China, 100871 · Purdue University2025 West Lafayette, IN 47907