Pretrained molecular embedding models spanning graph neural networks, text transformers, and hybrid architectures have been widely used in drug discovery, yet no large-scale, rigorous comparison of their representations existed. We evaluated 28 models across 25 classification datasets under a controlled framework using hierarchical Bayesian Bradley-Terry statistical testing. All neural models except CheMeleon failed to outperform the classical ECFP count fingerprint; CheMeleon was the only model rated as better. However, further testing on external validation datasets, based on scaffold cross-validation and a Bayesian hierarchical correlated t-test, revealed no definite advantage of either embedding method. As a practical takeaway, we recommend evaluating both ECFP fingerprints and CheMeleon embeddings in novel QSAR/QSPR studies. Overall, in the context of all neural networks evaluated, these results also challenge the perceived progress in molecular representation learning and highlight the need for rigorous evaluation standards in the field.
Figures & tables
Figure 1: The proposed workflow.
Dataset
Reference
Endpoint
NICEATM Acute Oral Toxicity
[ 49 , 33 ]
Acute oral rat toxicity: non-toxic (0), intermediate (1), very toxic (2)
Rat carcinogenicity
[ 64 ]
In vivo classification as carcinogen or non-carcinogen
DILIrank 2.0
[ 52 ]
Drug-induced liver injury: none (0), low (1), high (2)
Bile salt export pump inhibition, pIC50=4 threshold
Mitochondrial toxicity
[ 23 ]
Toxicity to mitochondria
Table 1: Selected external datasets used for evaluation.
Model
Mean rank ↓
Mean AUROC ↑
CheMeleon
5.24
81.17%
R-MAT
6.52
80.91%
MolBERT
8.16
80.51%
ChemBERTa
8.68
80.01%
ECFP
8.80
79.95%
Mordred
8.92
80.22%
Table 2: Average model results, with ECFP marked.
BBT decision
Models
Better
CheMeleon
Practically equivalent
R-MAT, MolBERT, ChemBERTa, Mordred, CDDD, MAT, Atom Pair, MolE, MoLFormer
Worse
Mol2vec, CLAMP, TT, …, (all other models)
Table 3: Bayesian Bradley-Terry (BBT) model decisions for all models compared to the ECFP baseline, with ROPE [0.35,0.65] .
Figure 2: Critical difference diagram, models ordered by BBT posterior mean βi . Horizontal bars join groups of pairwise practically equivalent models.
Figure 3: Pairwise win ratio between all evaluated models. Green marks wins of the model on the Y axis against the model on the X axis, red means losses (i.e. the model from X axis won more).
Model
Number of datasets
CheMeleon
12
ECFP
8
MolBERT
8
Mordred
8
R-MAT
8
Table 4: Number of datasets on which a model achieved the highest AUROC or was within 0.01 AUROC of it, for the five models with the most such datasets.
Figure 4: Percentage of models outperforming ECFP (AUROC higher by more than 0.01) on each dataset.
Dataset
CheMeleon AUROC [%]
ECFP AUROC [%]
NICEATM Acute Oral Toxicity
80.69 ± 2.48
80.09 ± 2.37
Rat carcinogenicity
68.43 ± 3.83
67.35 ± 4.49
DILIrank 2.0
70.62 ± 3.11
70.83 ± 3.38
B3DB
91.41 ± 2.46
92.26 ± 2.38
BSEP
86.30 ± 2.93
84.92 ± 4.85
Mitochondrial toxicity
87.00 ± 2.08
83.78 ± 4.53
Table 5: Results of the post-hoc comparison on external validation datasets. Mean ± standard deviation is reported across 5-fold scaffold cross-validation. For each dataset and model, the classification head with the best mean AUROC is used.
Figure 5: Per-dataset posterior of the mean AUROC difference (CheMeleon − ECFP) from the hierarchical t-test, ρ=0 . Filled dots and bars show the posterior mean and 89% HDI after shrinkage, empty dots the raw mean difference over folds. The shaded area is the ROPE [−0.01,0.01] .
ρ
E[μ0]
89% HDI
P(ECFP)
P(equivalent)
P(CheMeleon)
Decision
0
+0.0073
[-0.0004, +0.0155]
0.005
0.662
0.333
Inconclusive
0.001
+0.0074
[-0.0008, +0.0151]
0.005
0.662
0.333
Inconclusive
0.01
+0.0073
[-0.0007, +0.0154]
0.005
0.666
0.329
Inconclusive
0.05
+0.0071
[-0.0012, +0.0156]
0.006
0.681
0.313
Inconclusive
0.1
+0.0069
[-0.0023, +0.0156]
0.007
0.679
0.314
Inconclusive
0.2
+0.0065
[-0.0033, +0.0162]
0.013
0.676
0.311
Inconclusive
Table 6: Results of the Bayesian hierarchical correlated t-test, CheMeleon against ECFP, for different values of the fold correlation ρ .
Figure 6: Posterior predictive distribution of the CheMeleon − ECFP AUROC difference on a new dataset, from the hierarchical correlated t -test on the scaffold-split folds (ROPE =[−0.01,0.01] ).
Figure 7: Embedding time of each evaluated model, using its representative variant: mean time to embed 10,000 molecules from MUV, with error bars indicating the standard deviation over batches. Orange marks models run on GPU.
Model
Device
Mean time [s] ↓
Std time [s]
CheMeleon
GPU
9.88
0.51
R-MAT
GPU
246.92
22.24
MolBERT
CPU
268.15
11.60
ChemBERTa
GPU
15.96
0.29
ECFP
CPU
0.77
0.08
Table 7: Embedding time of the 5 best models by mean rank (Table 2 ), using each model’s representative variant. MUV is embedded in batches of 10,000 molecules.