Freshness and the Limits of Heuristic Trend Detection in Temporal RAG

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems retrieve and integrate external knowledge to ground large language model (LLM) outputs. However, current RAG architectures treat all retrieved facts as equally valid regardless of temporal provenance, leading to temporal hallucination, where plausible but obsolete facts corrupt the output. A clinical lab reading from yesterday is actionable; the same reading from six months ago is noise. We present Chronofy, a three-layer neuro-symbolic framework implementing the Temporal-Logical Decay Architecture (TLDA) that embeds temporal validity directly into the representation, retrieval, and reasoning layers of RAG systems. Layer 1 reserves a dedicated temporal subspace within Matryoshka embeddings to make fact age structurally irremovable from the representation. Layer 2 integrates learnable exponential decay functions into graph-based retrieval, where the decay coefficient $β_j$ is grounded in Bayesian decision theory as an approximation of twice the latent process mean-reversion rate. Layer 3 applies Signal Temporal Logic (STL) robustness functions to evaluate the temporal validity of retrieved knowledge, not LLM output confidence, and enforces the possibilistic weakest-link principle to bound output confidence by the most decayed evidence in the reasoning chain. We evaluate Chronofy on temporal knowledge graph forecasting benchmarks, the TimE temporal QA benchmark, and a domain-specific sensitivity analysis, demonstrating that explicit temporal decay modeling improves retrieval precision, reduces temporal hallucination, and enables principled data re-acquisition triggers when temporal context is insufficient.

Semantic caching reduces the latency and cost of retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) by serving cached answers to semantically similar queries, but most existing methods do not model the time-varying freshness of open-web evidence. We present FreshCache, a three-tier semantic cache that treats cache reuse as a risk-constrained temporal inference problem: before approving a cache hit, FreshCache estimates the probability that the cached result is stale using a fitted exponential decay model enhanced by a learned MLP, and approves reuse only when that probability falls below a per-tier error budget across answers (epsilon = 0.10), URL lists (epsilon = 0.20), and page content (epsilon = 0.35). This allows the system to degrade gracefully as entries age rather than forcing a binary choice between a stale hit and a full pipeline execution. We introduce FreshCache-Bench, a benchmark of 8,072 base queries across five freshness classes with ground truth staleness labels drawn from real web snapshots at 1, 12, 24 hours, and 7 days after a baseline crawl, expanded to 31,201 queries via paraphrase generation. At the 24-hour evaluation window, FreshCache_MLP achieves 97% search API savings at 0.1% hash-based stale error, and an LLM-judge evaluation on 396 confirmed change pairs shows that only 34.3% of detected content changes actually affect answer correctness, placing true answer-affecting stale error at approximately 0.034%. The rule-based FreshCache achieves 98% search savings at 3.3% stale error under a temporal holdout calibration, outperforming SemanticTTL (14.9% stale, 72% saved), vCache (7.2% stale, 47% saved), and SCALM (5.2% stale, 96% saved). Ablations show the temporal risk gate accounts for an 11.6 point reduction in stale error over similarity-only reuse, and the learned MLP reduces stale error a further 3.2 points over the rule-based model.

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) gives agents access to accumulated knowledge, but has no model of time. When a fact changes (e.g., a function is renamed or API restructured), RAG retrieves both the stale and current value with near-identical embedding similarity. The agent then either abstains or serves the superseded fact. We show this is a structural problem: on a calibrated dataset, cosine similarity distinguishes a contradicted fact from a duplicated one with AUROC 0.59 (near chance), as contradictions are often more embedding-similar to the original than rephrased duplicates. We present MemStrata, a retrieval memory maintaining temporal validity. It stores facts like RAG, preserving static recall, but when a fact's value is contradicted, a deterministic (subject, relation, object) supersession rule retires the stale value in a bi-temporal ledger - with no similarity threshold and no LLM call. Across six benchmarks run locally with a 7B model, MemStrata ties RAG on static knowledge and reaches 0.95-1.00 accuracy on evolving knowledge (where RAG reaches 0.20-0.47). The central result is the stale-fact-error rate: when required to answer, RAG serves superseded values 15-40% of the time; MemStrata drives this to ~0%, a failure class RAG cannot avoid. MemStrata achieves this at retrieval latency (~2.1s) versus ~16-18s for LLM-reranking baselines. We release the harness, datasets, and a marker-free evaluation protocol for memory under knowledge evolution.