SGM: A Statistical Godel Machine for Risk-Controlled Recursive Self-Modification

Self-improving coding agents that iteratively rewrite their own source code have demonstrated impressive performance on coding tasks. However, existing solutions generally derive self-modification from a single failure trajectory at a time, overlooking rich comparative signals available in the agent's expanding archive of past attempts. According to Mendelian principles of controlled inheritance, we introduce Mendel Gödel Machine (MGM). In addition to the general single-trajectory clonal mutation, MGM includes two new types of self-modification that better utilizes evidences accumulated: the reaction-norm mutation edits an agent based on its trajectories on multiple tasks simultaneously, and the cross-lineage hybridization edits an agent using the trajectory of a reference agent from another lineage on the same task. Under an additive fitness landscape model, we prove theoretically and demonstrate via controlled surrogate simulation that the new strategies facilitate a faster and better convergence over single-trajectory baselines. Experiments on SWE-bench and Polyglot confirm MGM's consistent improvement in performance, efficiency, and generalizability.

Self-evolving agents violate the assumption behind most learning-theoretic guarantees: the data, evaluator, components, and hypothesis space are produced by the policy being updated. We present \textbf{SEA}, an architecture that confines self-modification to a small steering adapter and a versioned harness around a \emph{frozen} base model and admits each modification only through an anytime-valid gate that emits an auditable certificate against a fixed error budget. Five loop controllers compose published guarantees; because such gates can only \emph{select} among behaviors the frozen base already produces, five verifier-in-the-loop mechanisms -- best-of-$N$, micro-step search, self-authored reproduction oracles, search-layer control, and self-repair -- supply the dense, grader-free signal the gates require, computed from the issue text alone. On a $52$-instance SWE-bench Verified subset across four base models, base capability is the dominant, confound-free effect, and on two strong base models a deliberate no-op-composite control isolates the suite's contribution at $+4$ and $+5$ (\textsc{Glm}~5.2 $24\to28$; \textsc{Gpt} $29\to34$, the $65\%$ best), with event logs confirming that its mechanisms fire and prevent regressions. Results are single-run on expensive evaluations; confirming run-to-run variance and adapting the per-task algorithm mix are future work.

Harness self-evolution is the process by which an agent modifies its prompts, tools, code, or orchestration in response to task feedback while keeping the underlying language model frozen, with changes persisting across subsequent tasks. We provide a systematic theoretical analysis of the feasibility and limits of safe harness self-evolution, connecting modification generation, finite-data certification and selection, safe adoption, and behavior after an update. Under a fixed user-task distribution, we establish conditions guaranteeing overall expected-reward improvement while controlling changes on retained tasks, characterize the probability of generating qualified modifications, and derive finite-data bounds for safe selection and adoption. Our analysis shows that generation and certification impose distinct constraints: current task performance does not determine the probability of generating qualified modifications, and generating more candidates need not improve the guarantee of a successful update when evaluation is limiting. Stagnation may therefore arise even when improvement opportunities remain. We further show that worst-case evaluation cost for recognizing genuine improvements diverges as expected reward approaches its upper bound. Across successive updates, certified improvement guarantees accumulate over a finite run, but a successful update does not by itself guarantee that further improvement remains possible. These results provide a basis for diagnosing bottlenecks and designing safer self-evolution mechanisms.