Uncertainty-Guided Multimodal Consensus for Multimodal Sentiment Analysis

Multimodal sentiment analysis relies on language, visual, and acoustic cues, but utterance-level modality quality may vary due to occlusion, background noise, motion blur, or imperfect transcripts, causing conventional fusion to over-trust unreliable modalities. We propose MRUF, a reliability-aware fusion method that combines multi-granularity routing with uncertainty-aware calibration. MRUF summarizes sentiment-relevant representations, performs subspace- and modality-level routing, and supervises modality routing with leave-one-out error increases to estimate utterance-level modality importance. It further predicts modality-wise uncertainty and refines modality gates through inverse-variance reweighting, while modality-invariant contrastive alignment stabilizes the shared representation space. Experiments on CMU-MOSI and CMU-MOSEI under aligned and unaligned settings show consistent improvements over strong baselines, and mechanism analysis verifies that modalities with higher predicted uncertainty receive lower fusion weights.

Multimodal sentiment analysis (MSA) aims to predict human sentiments by integrating signals from different modalities such as text, video, and audio. However, raw multimodal sequences often suffer from semantic inconsistency--exhibiting redundancy or conflicts within and across modalities--which hinders robust understanding and increases computational cost. To this end, we introduce ConsMSA, which explicitly formalizes semantic distribution consistency across both $\textit{intra}$- and $\textit{inter}$-modality, providing a consistency-aware mechanism for robust and efficient multimodal sentiment prediction. Specifically, ConsMSA projects multimodal token features into a shared sentiment space to compute an Intra- and Inter-modality Consistency Score ($I^2CS$). By coupling this score with predictive relevance, we formulate consistency-aware importance signals that are utilized: (i) as a consistency regularizer to align latent distributions during training, (ii) to derive semantic-aware weights for adaptive multimodal token reweighting, and (iii) as a practical criterion to prune redundant or conflicting tokens. Extensive experiments on CMU-MOSI, CMU-MOSEI, and CH-SIMS demonstrate that ConsMSA achieves state-of-the-art performance while remaining robust under aggressive token compression--retaining only 10% of tokens yields comparable accuracy. These results establish semantic distribution consistency as a promising foundation for synergizing predictive robustness with computational efficiency.

Recent research on Multimodal Sentiment Analysis (MSA) has focused on learning from language, visual, and acoustic modalities with incomplete data to infer human sentiment. Most studies typically compensate for missing information by reconstructing modality features or designing complicated fusion mechanisms. However, these methods still suffer from spurious generation and noisy guidance due to the lack of high-level semantic grounding in partially observed multimodal evidence. To address these issues, we propose SemMSA, a latent semantic-aided framework that constructs rich sentiment-relevant semantics with LLMs, fully integrating with all modalities via anchor-free spectral alignment. It mainly consists of Cross-modal Semantic Refinement (CSR) and Cross-modal Spectral Alignment (CSA). Specifically, CSR first adaptively extracts visual and acoustic representations by corresponding adapters to form a unified multimodal prefix with language in the frozen LLM embedding space. It then iteratively produces continuous discriminative semantic states through a token-efficient latent refinement process without decoding explicit text. Next, CSA simultaneously aligns the refined semantics with all modalities by enhancing the dominant spectral component of their kernel Gram matrix. This captures global nonlinear dependencies among all representations without relying on a predefined anchor modality. In addition, an instance-level spectral separation constraint preserves cross-sample discriminability and mitigates representation collapse. Extensive experiments on SIMS, MOSI, and MOSEI benchmarks demonstrate that SemMSA achieves state-of-the-art performance.