Machine Learning Guided Optimal Transmission Switching to Mitigate Wildfire Ignition Risk

Intense wildfire seasons require critical prioritization decisions to allocate scarce suppression resources over a dispersed geographical area. This paper develops a predictive and prescriptive approach to jointly optimize crew assignments and wildfire suppression. The problem features a discrete resource-allocation structure with endogenous wildfire demand and non-linear wildfire dynamics. We formulate an integer optimization model with crew assignments on a time-space-rest network, wildfire dynamics on a time-state network, and linking constraints between them. We develop a two-sided branch-and-price-and-cut algorithm based on: (i) a two-sided column generation scheme that generates fire suppression plans and crew routes iteratively; (ii) a new family of cuts exploiting the knapsack structure of the linking constraints; and (iii) novel branching rules to accommodate non-linear wildfire dynamics. We also propose a data-driven double machine learning approach to estimate wildfire spread as a function of covariate information and suppression efforts, mitigating observed confounding between historical crew assignments and wildfire growth. Extensive computational experiments show that the optimization algorithm scales to otherwise intractable real-world instances; and that the methodology can enhance suppression effectiveness in practice, resulting in significant reductions in area burned over a wildfire season and guiding resource sharing across wildfire jurisdictions.

Machine learning models for climate and Earth science are becoming increasingly capable, yet model deployment into operational use remains a largely unaddressed challenge: general-purpose model-serving tools, such as MLflow and KServe, assume input data availability at the inference node, while data acquisition, failure handling, and preprocessing are trusted to a separate workflow. We present OpFML: Operational Forecasting with Machine Learning - a configurable pipeline integrating the four steps of operational inference into a single TOML-configured workflow: data consumption, contingency handling, preprocessing, and model inference. By consolidating these steps, OpFML removes the significant boilerplate code required for each new deployment. We demonstrate the pipeline on the operational forecasting of daily fire activity over southern Italy.

The proliferation of distributed energy resources (DERs) in distribution grids enables the active coordination of these assets to reduce costs and enable cleaner operations. Realizing this potential requires solving multiphase AC optimal power flow (AC-OPF) quickly across varying loads, DER availabilities, and topology reconfigurations, at much greater speed and scale than conventional nonlinear solvers. Learning-based surrogates can offer millisecond inference, yet existing methods target largely balanced transmission systems and do not scale to the multiphase, unbalanced, and reconfigurable nature of distribution feeders at utility scale. We present the Penalty + Sequential Linearized Feasibility Seeking (SLFS) algorithm, a self-supervised learning framework for multiphase distribution AC-OPF under switch-induced topology changes. Penalty+SLFS requires no labeled optimal solutions and trains directly from the AC-OPF objective and constraints through a differentiable fixed-point power flow solver, avoiding expensive label generation and admitting robust training procedures. Topology changes are handled efficiently using Sherman-Morrison-Woodbury updates of the admittance-matrix inverse, while an M-step Jacobian approximation accelerates differentiation through the power flow solver. At inference, SLFS repairs any infeasible predictions, providing feasibility guarantees with low computational overhead. On IEEE feeders ranging from 13 to 8,500 nodes, Penalty+SLFS achieves negligible optimality gaps and near-zero constraint violations, delivers up to three orders of magnitude speedups over IPOPT, and remains robust under large distributional shifts, demonstrating a viable path toward real-time, topology-aware AC-OPF for large-scale distribution grids.