Predictive and Prescriptive AI toward Optimizing Wildfire Suppression
Authors: Leonard Boussioux, Alexandre Jacquillat, Ryne Reger, Jacob Wachspress
Organizations: Michael G. Foster School of Business and Paul G. Allen School of Computer Science & Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA · Operations Research Center and Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA
Abstract
Intense wildfire seasons require critical prioritization decisions to allocate scarce suppression resources over a dispersed geographical area. This paper develops a predictive and prescriptive approach to jointly optimize crew assignments and wildfire suppression. The problem features a discrete resource-allocation structure with endogenous wildfire demand and non-linear wildfire dynamics. We formulate an integer optimization model with crew assignments on a time-space-rest network, wildfire dynamics on a time-state network, and linking constraints between them. We develop a two-sided branch-and-price-and-cut algorithm based on: (i) a two-sided column generation scheme that generates fire suppression plans and crew routes iteratively; (ii) a new family of cuts exploiting the knapsack structure of the linking constraints; and (iii) novel branching rules to accommodate non-linear wildfire dynamics. We also propose a data-driven double machine learning approach to estimate wildfire spread as a function of covariate information and suppression efforts, mitigating observed confounding between historical crew assignments and wildfire growth. Extensive computational experiments show that the optimization algorithm scales to otherwise intractable real-world instances; and that the methodology can enhance suppression effectiveness in practice, resulting in significant reductions in area burned over a wildfire season and guiding resource sharing across wildfire jurisdictions.
Aerial wildfire suppression requires not only predicting fire spread, but also designing effective intervention strategies under operational and environmental uncertainty. We present a modeling and optimization framework for aerial wildfire suppression that combines a hybrid neural-cellular automaton wildfire model with gradient-based design of targeted aerial drops. The wildfire model predicts spatially varying spread behavior from terrain, fuel, and wind data, while the intervention module determines binary drop actions with continuous-valued location and orientation parameters mapped to the simulation grid. Water and retardant are represented with distinct suppression effects, corresponding to immediate reduction of active burning and persistent reduction of future spread. To evaluate the robustness of the resulting suppression plans, we quantify both aleatoric uncertainty through Monte Carlo sampling of daily fire-state realizations and epistemic uncertainty through spatially correlated prediction-error perturbations. A case study based on the 2020 Bear Fire shows that the framework can generate coherent aerial suppression schedules for reducing total fire-affected area and can support uncertainty-aware analysis of wildfire intervention strategies.
Ion Matei, Maksym Zhenirovskyy, Takuya Kurihana +2
Predicting rare extreme events such as wildfires from meteorological data requires models that remain reliable under evolving environmental conditions. This problem is inherently long-tailed: wildfire events are rare but high-impact, while most observations correspond to non-fire conditions, causing standard learning objectives to underemphasize the minority class (fire) that matters most. In addition, models trained on historical distributions often fail under distribution shifts, exhibiting degraded performance in new environments. To this end, we propose Environment-Adaptive Preference Optimization (EAPO), a framework that adapts prediction to the target environment with long-tail distribution. Given a new input distribution, we first construct distribution-aligned datasets via k-nearest neighbor retrieval. We then perform a hybrid fine-tuning procedure on this local manifold, combining supervised learning with preference optimization, as well as emphasizing on rare extreme events. EAPO refines decision boundaries while avoiding conflicting signals from heterogeneous training data. We evaluate EAPO on a real-world wildfire prediction task with environmental shifts. EAPO achieves robust performance (ROC-AUC 0.7310) and improves detection in extreme regimes, demonstrating its effectiveness in dynamic wildfire prediction systems.
To mitigate acute wildfire ignition risks, utilities de-energize power lines in high-risk areas. The Optimal Power Shutoff (OPS) problem optimizes line energization statuses to manage wildfire ignition risks through de-energizations while reducing load shedding. OPS problems are computationally challenging Mixed-Integer Linear Programs (MILPs) that must be solved rapidly and frequently in operational settings. For a particular power system, OPS instances share a common structure with varying parameters related to wildfire risks, loads, and renewable generation. This motivates the use of Machine Learning (ML) for solving OPS problems by exploiting shared patterns across instances. In this paper, we develop an ML-guided framework that quickly produces high-quality de-energization decisions by extending existing ML-guided MILP solution methods while integrating domain knowledge on the number of energized and de-energized lines. Results on a large-scale realistic California-based synthetic test system show that the proposed ML-guided method produces high-quality solutions faster than traditional optimization methods.