Monitoring Transformative Technological Convergence Through LLM-Extracted Semantic Entity Triple Graphs
Authors: Alexander Sternfeld, Andrei Kucharavy, Dimitri Percia David, Alain Mermoud, Julian Jang-Jaccard, Nathan Monnet
Abstract
Forecasting transformative technologies remains a critical but challenging task, particularly in fast-evolving domains such as Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs). Traditional expert-based methods struggle to keep pace with short innovation cycles and ambiguous early-stage terminology. In this work, we propose a novel, data-driven pipeline to monitor the emergence of transformative technologies by identifying patterns of technological convergence. Our approach leverages advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) to extract semantic triples from unstructured text and construct a large-scale graph of technology-related entities and relations. We introduce a new method for grouping semantically similar technology terms (noun stapling) and develop graph-based metrics to detect convergence signals. The pipeline includes multi-stage filtering, domain-specific keyword clustering, and a temporal trend analysis of topic co-occurence. We validate our methodology on two complementary datasets: 278,625 arXiv preprints (2017--2024) to capture early scientific signals, and 9,793 USPTO patent applications (2018-2024) to track downstream commercial developments. Our results demonstrate that the proposed pipeline can identify both established and emerging convergence patterns, offering a scalable and generalizable framework for technology forecasting grounded in full-text analysis.
Forecasting innovation, intended as the emergence of new technological combinations, is a fundamental challenge for science and policy. We show that forthcoming combinations leave an early trace in the collective language of patents, with predictive signals detectable even decades in advance. We show that signal is not attributable to any single inventor, but emerges as a collective shift in how technologies are described across thousands of patents. To this end, we introduce TechToken, a transformer-based model that treats technologies, classified by International Patent Classification codes, as words in its vocabulary, learning the language of technologies by embedding these codes during fine-tuning. We define context similarity between code embeddings as a measure of linguistic convergence and show that it accurately predicts first technological combinations. TechToken also improves general representation quality, outperforming state-of-the-art models across different patent-related tasks.
Enrico Maria Fenoaltea, Filippo Santoro, Giordano De Marzo +2
We introduce an explainable machine-learning approach that forecasts the structural precursors of scientific breakthroughs -- the emergence and intensification of links between research concepts -- by modelling how OpenAlex concept networks evolve over time. Using 59 semantic and topological features, a two-stage LightGBM model jointly predicts the formation and the future weight of concept pairs, adding a regression stage that quantifies expected intensity to prior link-existence forecasts. Relative to the state of the art, the approach improves accuracy and explainability at once: comparative validation across four technology and biomedical domains yields ROC-AUC in [0.954, 0.967] at all horizons without re-tuning, exceeding the roughly 0.90 of prior models, while every forecast rests on structural, auditable features rather than opaque embeddings. Classification performance is high (AUC about 0.95) and regression remains stable (RMSLE 0.45 to 0.6 over one to five years). Feature attribution shows that structural factors -- particularly Adamic-Adar similarity and degree-based Hadamard measures -- consistently drive accuracy, suggesting that breakthrough-relevant recombinations emerge in tightly connected sub-networks. Two expert-anchored cases, quantum annealing and AI-enabled quantum architectures, show the model surfacing technological convergence consistent with expert expectations. We then outline a three-layer decision architecture -- detection, expert translation, institutional integration -- that turns these forecasts into evidence-based research strategy and policy, anchored in open data and explainable features.
Thomas Maillart, Thibaut Chataing, Ntorina Antoni +4
Scientific contributions rarely develop in isolation, but instead build upon prior discoveries. We formulate the task of automated technological roadmapping as extracting scientific contributions from scholarly articles and linking them to their prerequisites. We present the Scientific Contribution Graph, a large-scale resource containing 6 million detailed scientific contributions extracted from 655k open-access papers spanning computer science, medicine, biology, physics, chemistry, and other sciences, and connected by 36 million prerequisite edges. We further introduce scientific prerequisite prediction, a scientific discovery task in which models predict which existing technologies can enable future discoveries, and show that contemporary models are rapidly improving on this task, reaching 0.48 MAP when evaluated using temporally-filtered backtesting. We anticipate technological roadmapping resources such as this will support scientific impact assessment and automated scientific discovery.