AD-DAE: Alzheimer's Disease Progression Modeling with Unpaired Longitudinal MRI using Diffusion Auto-Encoders

Accurately modeling longitudinal brain MRI progression is crucial for understanding neurodegenerative diseases and predicting individualized structural changes. Existing state-of-the-art approaches, such as Brain Latent Progression (BrLP), often use multi-stage training pipelines with auxiliary conditioning modules but suffer from architectural complexity, suboptimal use of conditional clinical covariates, and limited guarantees of anatomical consistency. We propose Anatomically Guided Latent Diffusion Model (AG-LDM), a segmentation-guided framework that enforces anatomically consistent progression while substantially simplifying the training pipeline. AG-LDM conditions latent diffusion by directly fusing baseline anatomy, noisy follow-up states, and clinical covariates at the input level, a strategy that avoids auxiliary control networks by learning a unified, end-to-end model that represents both anatomy and progression. A lightweight 3D tissue segmentation model (WarpSeg) provides explicit anatomical supervision during both autoencoder fine-tuning and diffusion model training, ensuring consistent brain tissue boundaries and morphometric fidelity. Experiments on 31,713 ADNI longitudinal pairs and zero-shot evaluation on OASIS-3 demonstrate that AG-LDM matches or surpasses more complex diffusion models, achieving highly competitive image quality and 15-20% reduction in volumetric errors in generated images. AG-LDM also exhibits markedly stronger utilization of temporal and clinical covariates (3.5-31.5x higher covariate sensitivity than BrLP) and generates biologically plausible counterfactual trajectories, accurately capturing hallmarks of Alzheimer's progression such as limbic atrophy and ventricular expansion. These results highlight AG-LDM as an efficient, anatomically grounded framework for reliable brain MRI progression modeling.

Latent diffusion models have emerged as powerful generative models in medical imaging, enabling the synthesis of high quality brain magnetic resonance imaging scans. In particular, predicting the evolution of a patients brain can aid in early intervention, prognosis, and treatment planning. In this study, we introduce CLIMB, Controllable Longitudinal brain Image generation via state space based latent diffusion model, an advanced framework for modeling temporal changes in brain structure. CLIMB is designed to model the structural evolution of the brain structure over time, utilizing a baseline MRI scan and its acquisition age as foundational inputs. Additionally, multiple conditional variables, including projected age, gender, disease status, genetic information, and brain structure volumes, are incorporated to enhance the temporal modeling of anatomical changes. Unlike existing LDM methods that rely on self attention modules, which effectively capture contextual information from input images but are computationally expensive, our approach leverages state space, a state space model architecture that substantially reduces computational overhead while preserving high-quality image synthesis. Furthermore, we introduce a Gaussian-aligned autoencoder that extracts latent representations conforming to prior distributions without the sampling noise inherent in conventional variational autoencoders. We train and evaluate our proposed model on the Alzheimers Disease Neuroimaging Initiative dataset, consisting of 6,306 MRI scans from 1,390 participants. By comparing generated images with real MRI scans, CLIMB achieves a structural similarity index of 0.9433, demonstrating notable improvements over existing methods.

Understanding and predicting the progression of neurodegenerative diseases remains a major challenge in medical AI, with significant implications for early diagnosis, disease monitoring, and treatment planning. However, most available longitudinal neuroimaging datasets are temporally sparse with a few follow-up scans per subject. This scarcity of temporal data limits our ability to model and accurately capture the continuous anatomical changes related to disease progression in individual subjects. To address this problem, we propose a novel 4D (3DxT) diffusion-based generative framework that effectively models and synthesizes longitudinal brain anatomy over time, conditioned on available clinical variables such as health status, age, sex, and other relevant factors. Moreover, while most current approaches focus on manipulating image intensity or texture, our method explicitly learns the data distribution of topology-preserving spatiotemporal deformations to effectively capture the geometric changes of brain structures over time. This design enables the realistic generation of future anatomical states and the reconstruction of anatomically consistent disease trajectories, providing a more faithful representation of longitudinal brain changes. We validate our model through both synthetic sequence generation and downstream longitudinal disease classification, as well as brain segmentation. Experiments on two large-scale longitudinal neuroimage datasets demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in generating anatomically accurate, temporally consistent, and clinically meaningful brain trajectories. Our code is available on Github.