A Footprint-Aware, High-Resolution Approach for Carbon Flux Prediction Across Diverse Ecosystems

We introduce FLUXtrapolation, a benchmark for extrapolating ecosystem fluxes under progressively harder distribution shifts. Ecosystem fluxes are central to understanding the carbon, water, and energy cycles, yet they can only be measured directly at sparsely located measurement towers. Producing global flux estimates therefore requires training models on observed sites using globally available covariates and predicting in unobserved regions, that is, upscaling. Flux upscaling is a challenging domain generalization problem that is affected by a shift in covariate distribution across climates, ecosystem types, and environmental conditions, as well as by conditional shift: important drivers remain unobserved at global scale. We provide a quantitative analysis of both these shifts in $P_X$ and $P_{Y\mid X}$. FLUXtrapolation is designed based on domain expertise on flux upscaling: it defines temporal, spatial, and temperature-based extrapolation scenarios and evaluates performance across held-out domains, temporal aggregations, and tail errors. In a pilot study, we find that baselines perform similarly under median hourly RMSE, but separate under the proposed tail-focused and multi-scale evaluation. FLUXtrapolation therefore poses a realistic and thus relevant challenge for machine learning methods under distribution shift; at the same time, progress on this benchmark would directly support the scientific goal of improving flux upscaling.

Earth Observation regression tasks such as building height, canopy height, and above-ground biomass estimation underpin critical applications in urban planning, forest monitoring, and climate policy, where both accuracy and reliability are critical. Yet most deep learning models yield only deterministic predictions, providing no indication of per-pixel reliability. These regression tasks are inherently challenging due to heterogeneous land surfaces, skewed target distributions, sensor noise, and signal saturation at high target values, making uncertainty (UC) estimation essential for reliable inference. We address this gap by modeling aleatoric uncertainty using year-long Sentinel-1 SAR and Sentinel-2 MSI time series, proposing two complementary approaches: (i) Gaussian UC, which jointly predicts mean and standard deviation under a Gaussian assumption, and (ii) Quantile UC, which estimates the 10th, 50th, and 90th quantiles to capture asymmetric and heteroscedastic error distributions. Both models are evaluated on three representative EO regression tasks at 10 m spatial resolution. Results show that both approaches match or surpass deterministic benchmarks and existing global products, while delivering well-calibrated, interpretable, and operationally useful confidence estimates. Notably, both models outperform the current 10 m state-of-the-art uncertainty-aware model for canopy height estimation. Our implementation will be available at: https://github.com/RituYadav92/EO-Regression-Uncertainty-Estimation

Accurate estimation of Above-Ground Biomass (AGB) from satellite imagery is essential for the large-scale monitoring of carbon stocks, yet it remains a challenging regression task at global scale. Geospatial Foundation Models (GFMs) have recently emerged as a promising machine learning paradigm to derive general-purpose representations from Earth observation data, but their utility for quantitative regression tasks like biomass estimation remains largely unexplored, as most benchmarks emphasize classification and segmentation. Here, we present a comprehensive benchmark of GFMs for global-scale AGB estimation using the AGBD dataset, a machine learning-ready benchmark spanning diverse biomes and geographies. We distinguish two ways in which GFMs reach practitioners: (i) models distributed as weights to be run by the user, which we evaluate as frozen encoders within the PANGAEA benchmarking framework; and (ii) models distributed as ready-to-use, pre-computed embedding products, for which we evaluate AlphaEarth Foundations (AEF) and TESSERA. We compare 11 GFMs available on PANGAEA and both embedding products against a fully supervised state-of-the-art (SOTA) model, assess their geographical and temporal generalization abilities, as well as agreement with the ESA CCI biomass product on independent reference data. Our results show that GFMs run as frozen encoders substantially underperform with respect to the supervised SOTA model, whereas pre-computed embedding products prove highly effective. An MLP trained on AEF embeddings outperforms the supervised SOTA model trained on AGBD features, and the same SOTA model trained on AEF embeddings (optionally augmented with selected raw features) achieves the best overall result, while also generalizing better across space and time.