Weighted Contrastive Learning for Anomaly-Aware Time-Series Forecasting

Multivariate time series anomaly detection has become increasingly important in real-world applications, where labeled data are often scarce. Many existing approaches rely on unsupervised learning to model normal patterns, but they often treat all channels equally. This design can dilute anomaly-relevant signals, since not all channels contribute equally to anomaly detection. In this paper, we propose CALAD, a channel-aware contrastive learning framework for multivariate time series anomaly detection. CALAD governs the construction of contrastive samples using estimated channel relevance, allowing the learning process to reflect anomaly semantics rather than generic similarity. Channel relevance is estimated from reconstruction errors of a transformer-based autoencoder and is used to distinguish channels that are more influential to anomalous behaviors. Using this information, we design a channel-wise augmentation strategy in which positive and negative samples are constructed based on whether anomaly-relevant channels are preserved or perturbed. This encourages invariance to changes in irrelevant channels while being sensitive to changes in anomaly-relevant channels. Furthermore, CALAD combines contrastive learning and an auxiliary reconstruction head, allowing the model to learn discriminative representations while retaining normal structures. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets shows that CALAD consistently outperforms existing methods, particularly under distribution shift scenarios. We provide the code for reproducibility at https://github.com/hirundo1218/CALAD

Anomaly detection in multivariate time series is a central challenge in industrial monitoring, as failures frequently arise from complex temporal dynamics and cross-sensor interactions. While recent deep learning models, including graph neural networks and Transformers, have demonstrated strong empirical performance, most approaches remain primarily correlational and offer limited support for causal interpretation and root-cause localization. This study introduces a causally-constrained probabilistic forecasting framework which is a Causally Guided Transformer (CGT) model for multivariate time-series anomaly detection, integrating an explicit time-lagged causal graph prior with deep sequence modeling. For each target variable, a dedicated forecasting block employs a hard parent mask derived from causal discovery to restrict the main prediction pathway to graph-supported causes, while a latent Gaussian head captures predictive uncertainty. To leverage residual correlational information without compromising the causal representation, a shadow auxiliary path with stop-gradient isolation and a safety-gated blending mechanism is incorporated to suppress non-causal contributions when reliability is low. Anomalies are identified using negative log-likelihood scores with adaptive streaming thresholding, and root-cause variables are determined through per-dimension probabilistic attribution and counterfactual clamping. Experiments on the ASD and SMD benchmarks indicate that the proposed method achieves state-of-the-art detection performance, with F1-scores of 96.19% on ASD and 95.32% on SMD, and enhances variable-level attribution quality. These findings suggest that causal structural priors can improve both robustness and interpretability in detecting deep anomalies in multivariate sensor systems.

Anomaly detection in multivariate time series (MTS) is hindered by dynamic inter-variable dependencies and feature entanglement under spectral noise, and in practice, is further complicated by the absence of anomaly labels. Existing reconstruction-based detectors tend to recover anomalies as faithfully as normal patterns, while prevailing graph contrastive methods enforce invariance across views and thus assume a stationary relational structure, an assumption that breaks under structural drift in real systems. We propose ContrastAD, an unsupervised framework that turns structural evolution itself into a learning signal rather than suppressing it. A Multi-Perspective Embedder encodes inputs from temporal, attribute, and structural perspectives. A Frequency-Aware Attention Mixer then performs spectral top-K filtering before attention, preventing noise from leaking into query-key similarities. The core component, a Dynamic Graph Contrastive Learner, builds power-law-inspired sparse graph snapshots from batch-level DTW distances and contrasts the most divergent pair against a stable anchor, regularizing the latent space without imposing rigid invariance. Across five real-world benchmarks, ContrastAD attains the highest mean F1 on all five datasets and the highest AUC on three (SWaT 93.60, SMD 98.66, PSM 97.79), with statistically significant F1 and AUC margins over the strongest baseline on SWaT and PSM. On MSL and SMAP, it trails the AUC leader by under 0.7 points while still leading on F1. Ablation and sensitivity studies further confirm that the contrastive objective works best as a soft regularizer, supporting our claim that strict invariance is suboptimal under non-stationary dynamics.