ROI-Reasoning: Rational Optimization for Inference via Pre-Computation Meta-Cognition

Scaling test-time compute via extended reasoning has become a key paradigm for improving the capabilities of large language models (LLMs). However, existing approaches optimize reasoning under fixed or uniformly sampled token budgets, ignoring the fundamental mismatch between problem difficulty and allocated compute. This leads to overthinking on easy problems and underthinking on hard ones, resulting in suboptimal token efficiency across diverse reasoning scenarios. In this paper, we propose Budget-Adaptive Curriculum Reasoning (BCAE), a unified framework that jointly optimizes reasoning quality and token efficiency through three synergistic components: (1) a budget-conditioned unified policy that embeds the token budget as a continuous conditioning signal, eliminating the need for decoupled thinking and summarization strategies; (2) a curriculum-aware budget scheduler that adaptively shifts the training budget distribution from easy to hard problems based on real-time learning progress; and (3) a truncation-aware dense reward mechanism that provides fine-grained credit assignment at intermediate reasoning steps via process-level verification. We further introduce Budget-Conditioned Advantage Estimation (BCAE), a novel variance reduction technique that conditions the advantage baseline on the sampled budget, yielding more stable policy gradients. Experiments on mathematical reasoning benchmarks (MATH, GSM8K, AIME, and Minerva Math) demonstrate that BACR consistently outperforms other strong baselines across all token budgets, achieving up to 8.3% accuracy improvement under tight budgets while reducing average token consumption by 34% compared to unconstrained reasoning.

Inference-time scaling has emerged as a critical avenue for enhancing Large Language Models' performance, yet real-world deployment is constrained by strict computational budgets. In this work, we formulate inference budget allocation as a global constrained optimization problem governed by economic principles. By modeling per-query reasoning utility with a shifted-surge function, we derive an optimal allocation policy based on a global shadow price that equilibrates marginal utility under resource scarcity. Based on this theory, we propose Constrained Latent-utility Equilibrium Allocation for Reasoning (CLEAR). It performs rational abandonment and reallocates resources from insolvent queries to solvable queries near their emergence thresholds. Extensive experiments on several reasoning tasks with different traffic streams demonstrate that CLEAR significantly improves the Pareto frontier of total token cost versus mean accuracy. In resource-scarce regimes, CLEAR achieves up to a 3x improvement in global accuracy compared to uniform allocation.

Reasoning language models trained with reinforcement learning typically operate under a fixed token budget rather than an explicitly adaptive one, which can lead to over-computation on easy problems and insufficient computation on difficult ones. We study whether a model can learn to allocate its own reasoning effort by choosing, as the first token of its response, one of three modes: NoThink (answer as quickly as possible), Short (brief reasoning), or Long (extended reasoning). The choice is learned inside Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) with no separate router, through a shaped reward that makes each mode worthwhile at a different response length, together with hard per-mode token caps that keep the modes distinct. On a 1.5B distilled model trained on MATH, the three modes emerge without collapsing to a single choice, and the brief modes end up more accurate than Long, which shows that the router sorts problems by difficulty rather than at random. Averaged over three seeds, the resulting policy stays close to the base model's accuracy on the held-out MATH500 ($0.782$ vs.\ $0.796$) while cutting the mean response length from $4{,}796$ to $2{,}811$ tokens (a $41\%$ reduction). Interestingly, it also transfers to other benchmarks without retraining, with the largest savings where problems are easier, with for instance 76% token reduction on GSM8K and at higher accuracy than the baselines at similar response length. In short, we build a reasoning model that adaptively chooses how much to reason for each problem.