CROCS: A Two-Stage Clustering Framework for Behaviour-Centric Consumer Segmentation with Smart Meter Data
Authors: Luke W. Yerbury, Ricardo J. G. B. Campello, G. C. Livingston, Mark Goldsworthy, Lachlan O'Neil
Abstract
With grid operators confronting rising uncertainty from renewable integration and a broader push toward electrification, Demand-Side Management (DSM) -- particularly Demand Response (DR) -- has attracted significant attention as a cost-effective mechanism for balancing modern electricity systems. Unprecedented volumes of consumption data from a continuing global deployment of smart meters enable consumer segmentation based on real usage behaviours, promising to inform the design of more effective DSM and DR programs. However, existing clustering-based segmentation methods insufficiently reflect the behavioural diversity of consumers, often relying on rigid temporal alignment, and faltering in the presence of anomalies, missing data, or large-scale deployments. To address these challenges, we propose a novel two-stage clustering framework -- Clustered Representations Optimising Consumer Segmentation (CROCS). In the first stage, each consumer's daily load profiles are clustered independently to form a Representative Load Set (RLS), providing a compact summary of their typical diurnal consumption behaviours. In the second stage, consumers are clustered using the Weighted Sum of Minimum Distances (WSMD), a novel set-to-set measure that compares RLSs by accounting for both the prevalence and similarity of those behaviours. Finally, community detection on the WSMD-induced graph reveals higher-order prototypes that embody the shared diurnal behaviours defining consumer groups, enhancing the interpretability of the resulting clusters. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real Australian smart meter datasets demonstrate that CROCS captures intra-consumer variability, uncovers both synchronous and asynchronous behavioural similarities, and remains robust to anomalies and missing data, while scaling efficiently through natural parallelisation. These results...
The energy transition is reshaping residential electricity consumption through the increasing adoption of distributed generation, electrified appliances, and demand-response programs. Understanding these evolving behaviors requires access to granular smart-meter data for applications such as load forecasting, appliance detection, and demand-side flexibility analysis. However, such data are subject to strict access restrictions and data-protection regulations. Thus, realistic synthetic alternatives are necessary. In this paper, we introduce LoaDiff, a diffusion-based generative model for year-long, sub-hourly smart-meter load curves. LoaDiff supports flexible conditioning on static household attributes, such as appliance ownership, and dynamic contextual variables, including calendar information and outdoor temperature. We evaluate the model against multiple generative baselines on three residential electricity-consumption datasets. Our experiments assess four complementary dimensions: fidelity and diversity, training-record memorization risk, downstream utility for load forecasting and appliance detection, and conditional controllability under alternative temperature conditions. The results show that LoaDiff generates realistic and diverse load profiles, achieves a favorable trade-off between generation quality and limited evidence of memorization, preserves information useful for downstream energy applications, and responds coherently to changes in conditioning variables.
Mariia Baranova, Adrien Petralia, Etienne Le Naour +3
Baseline estimation is critical to Demand Response (DR) settlement in electricity markets, yet existing machine learning methods remain limited in predictive performance, while methodologies from causal inference and counterfactual prediction are still underutilized in this domain. We introduce a Generalized Synthetic Control Method that builds on the classical Synthetic Control Method (SCM) from econometrics. While SCM provides a powerful framework for counterfactual estimation, classical SCM remains a static estimator: it fits the treated unit as a combination of contemporaneous donor units and therefore ignores predictable temporal structure in the residual error. We develop a generalized SCM framework that transforms baseline estimation into a dynamic counterfactual prediction problem by augmenting the donor representation with exogenous features, lagged treated load, and selected lagged donor signals. This enriched representation allows the estimator to capture autoregressive dependence, delayed donor-response patterns, and error-correction effects beyond the scope of standard SCM. The framework further accommodates nonlinear predictors when linear weighting is inadequate, with the greatest benefit arising in limited-data settings. Experiments on the Ausgrid smart-meter dataset show consistent improvements over classical SCM and strong benchmark methods, with the dominant performance gains driven by dynamic augmentation.
Smart meter data can reveal sensitive socio-demographic characteristics of households, raising privacy concerns. While this risk has been demonstrated at fixed granularities, the role of temporal resolution in shaping inference performance remains insufficiently explored. This paper addresses this gap by analyzing how load profiles with granularities from 15 minutes to 7 days affect the predictability of eight socio-demographic attributes in a dataset of 1,589 households over one year. We introduce an evaluation framework where classifiers are trained on year-round data but tested on arbitrary weeks, forcing generalization across seasonal and weekly variations. Our results show three main findings. First, while coarsening granularity reduces predictive accuracy, two plateaus emerge: performance is stable between 15 minutes and 1 hour, and again between 1 and 7 days. This reveals opportunities for data minimization without sacrificing utility. Second, interpretable handcrafted and tsfresh features remain competitive with CNN-based autoencoder embeddings, while XGBoost consistently outperforms alternative classifiers. Third, feature importance analysis highlights differences between static and dynamic attributes: dwelling size can be inferred even from coarse data, whereas swimming pool usage requires fine-grained temporal signals. Overall, our study provides new insights into the privacy-utility trade-off in smart metering, showing how temporal resolution, feature extraction, and classifier choice jointly influence socio-demographic inference.
Dejan Radovanovic, Maximilian Schirl, Andreas Unterweger +1