Current evaluations of LLM safety predominantly rely on severity-based taxonomies to assess the harmfulness of models' responses to malicious queries. We argue that this formulation requires re-examination as it implicitly equates model output with realized harm while neglecting Execution Likelihood-the conditional probability of a threat being realized by a real-world actor given a model's response. In this work, we introduce Expected Harm, a metric that weights the severity of a jailbreak by its execution likelihood, modeled as a function of execution cost. Through empirical analysis of state-of-the-art models, we reveal a systematic Inverse Risk Calibration: models disproportionately exhibit stronger refusal behaviors for low-likelihood (high-cost) threats while remaining vulnerable to high-likelihood (low-cost) queries. Mechanistically, we first provide an analysis using linear probing, revealing that while refusal mechanisms linearly separate queries by severity, they do not use execution likelihood as an indicator for refusal. Then, we use Olmo-3's open-source staged checkpoints to trace the root cause of miscalibration to the Supervised Fine Tuning (SFT) training data distribution (82.8% of safety examples at cost levels 0-1) and show that cost representations are weak from the SFT stage onward. Finally, we demonstrate that this miscalibration creates a vulnerability: by exploiting this property, we increase the attack success rate of existing jailbreaks by up to 2×.
Figures & tables
Figure 1: Introducing execution likelihood , modeled as a function of execution cost , to the safety evaluation paradigm.
Figure 3: Mapping safety calibration across the cost-severity space. (a) In an ideal calibration , models should achieve the lowest ASR for high-severity, low-cost (highly executable) threats. (b) Current models exhibit an inverse risk calibration , where robustness is anchored to execution cost rather than severity. (c) Empirical Attack Success Rate (ASR) for gpt-oss-20b across levels 0–5.
Figure 4: Top: Linear probe concept trained on Llama-3.2-3B-Instruct hidden states to predict if instruction would refused on unsafe instruction and comply on safe instruction, results showed that middle layers predict the best. Middle: the linear probe predictions for refusal signals of every layer is prompt on collections of every severity levels of instructions (from every cost levels), the deeper the layers will have more significant increasing trends. Bottom: The same probe is then prompted on 5 levels of execution levels , however in this figure we do not observe increasing refusal signals but rather a bimodal distribution with high refusal at cost 1 and cost 5.
Checkpoint
Severity ρ
Cost ρ
Severity Spread
Cost Spread
Stage 0 - Base
0.086
-0.850
0.099
0.139
Stage 1 - SFT
0.679
0.493
0.303
0.125
Stage 2 - DPO
0.671
0.507
0.351
0.120
Stage 3 - RLVR
0.707
0.464
0.343
0.124
Table 2: Linear probing accuracies and latent representation metrics across training stages.
Figure 5: \update Illustration of cost-based decomposition. By decomposing a high-cost harmful request into multiple benign, low-cost sub-tasks, this method bypasses safety filters and lowers the barrier to real-world misuse.
Clean
GCG
Roleplay
Many Shot
AutoDAN
Method
ASR
UN
ASR
UN
ASR
UN
ASR
UN
ASR
UN
Original
0.0917
0.1854
0.2250
0.2000
0.0646
0.0541
0.0563
0.0333
0.1459
0.2479
+ Unrestricted
0.1896
0.5209
0.2875
0.5146
0.1000
0.3313
0.0729
0.1437
0.2021
0.4416
+ Monitoring
0.2167
0.5167
0.3063
0.5834
0.1916
0.5146
0.0917
0.1729
0.2438
0.4479
+ Cost
0.2291
0.6042
0.3291
0.5854
0.1354
0.4708
0.1542
0.1875
0.2625
0.5542
+ Monitor + Cost
0.2833
0.6250
0.3563
0.6167
0.2083
0.4791
0.1979
0.1562
0.2646
0.5333
Table 3: \neurips Jailbreak results for Llama-3.2-3B-Instruct . We report summarized ASR (attack success rate) and UN (usefulness) scores averaged across all benchmarks, evaluated for each combination of decomposition and jailbreak methods. Detailed raw results are provided in Appendix G.1 .
Decomposer
Method
Severity (Subtask Avg.)
Severity (Max per Task)
Cost (Subtask Avg.)
Cost (Max per Task)
# Subtasks per Task
None
Original
2.18
2.18
1.41
1.41
1.00
Daredevil-8B
+ Unrestricted
0.62
1.38
0.56
1.08
7.52
+ Monitoring
0.70
1.29
0.60
1.08
5.37
+ Cost
0.69
1.52
0.52
1.18
6.16
+ Monitor + Cost
0.38
0.86
0.32
0.78
5.78
Hermes 3-70B
+ Unrestricted
0.86
1.64
0.63
1.13
6.19
Table 4: Analysis of task decomposition strategies. We compare the original baseline against decomposition performed by different LLMs. The Subtask columns represent the average of all decomposed subtasks, while the Max per Task columns evaluate all subtasks for each jailbreak prompt and only report the maximum value observed among them.
Appendix figures & tables13 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
Model
Acc.
Off-by-1
MAE
MiMo-V2 Flash
70.6
96.1
0.37
gpt-oss-120b
68.0
96.0
0.36
Gemini 2.5 Flash
63.5
94.2
0.46
Qwen3-30B
53.8
90.4
0.60
GPT-4o Mini
42.3
92.3
0.69
Appendix
Table 5: Cost prediction performance. We evaluate various LLMs on their ability to predict the execution cost (difficulty level) of harmful prompts. Metrics include exact accuracy, off-by-one accuracy (±1 tolerance), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE).
Figure 6: Heatmaps illustrating fulfillment rates across varying cost and severity levels. All instruction-tuned models exhibit consistent inverse risk calibration. Note that Olmo3 base model results are omitted as it lacks the instruction-following capabilities necessary for the task.
Figure 7: Linear probe results for Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct . We observe that probing accuracy for Severity Levels increases proportionally with severity, whereas Cost Level accuracy exhibits a bimodal distribution, indicating a lack of linear correspondence between execution cost and internal refusal activations.
Figure 8: Comparison of linear probing accuracy across the Olmo-3-7B training pipeline. While the SFT model shows a more uniform activation pattern, the transition through DPO to the Final RLVR-tuned model reveals an increasingly fractured and bimodal representation of Cost, particularly in the later transformer layers.
Model
DA
CoT (Std N=10)
OpenAI gpt-oss-120b
72.95
65.48 (33.54)
+ Majority vote
85.71
84.62
Xiaomi MiMo-v2-Flash
26.87
79.93 (1.57)
+ Majority vote
22.03
84.72
OpenAI GPT-4o-mini
34.10
71.03 (1.57)
+ Majority vote
33.06
72.48
Appendix
Table 6: Response Usefuless Performance: We evaluate various LLMs in predicting response usefulness with 2 prompting strategies: Direct Answer (DA) and Chain of Thought (CoT).
AdvBench
HarmBench
SorryBench
StrongREJECT
Method
ASR
Usefulness
ASR
Usefulness
ASR
Usefulness
ASR
Usefulness
Clean
0.2750
0.0500
0.0000
0.3583
0.0250
0.1917
0.0667
0.1417
+Decomp. (unrestricted)
0.3417
0.5667
0.2167
0.4750
0.0667
0.4750
0.1333
0.5667
+Decomp. (monitor)
0.3833
0.5083
0.2333
0.5250
0.0583
0.4750
0.1917
0.5583
+Decomp. (cost)
0.3583
0.6333
0.2833
0.5250
0.0750
0.6167
0.2000
0.6417
+Decomp. (cost + monitor)
0.4667
0.7333
0.3833
0.6000
0.0667
0.4750
0.2167
0.6917
Appendix
Table 7: Results for Llama-3.2-3B-Instruct . We compare Attack Success Rate (ASR) and Usefulness side-by-side for each benchmark. monitor method is proposed by ( Yueh-Han et al., 2025 ) , cost is the execution cost decomposition proposed in this paper.
AdvBench
HarmBench
SorryBench
StrongREJECT
Method
ASR
Usefulness
ASR
Usefulness
ASR
Usefulness
ASR
Usefulness
Clean
0.0000
0.0000
0.0083
0.0333
0.0167
0.0417
0.0083
0.0167
+Decomp. (unrestricted)
0.0917
0.2250
0.0917
0.2167
0.0250
0.2750
0.1833
0.3750
+Decomp. (monitor)
0.1333
0.4417
0.1250
0.3000
0.0500
0.3250
0.2000
0.4500
+Decomp. (cost)
0.0167
0.3167
0.1750
0.3667
0.0833
0.3250
0.1417
0.3667
+Decomp. (cost + monitor)
0.4750
0.0000
0.2167
0.3750
0.0583
0.3333
0.2083
0.4333
Appendix
Table 8: Results for gpt-oss-120b . We compare Attack Success Rate (ASR) and Usefulness side-by-side for each benchmark.
Qwen3Guard-Gen-8B
Llama-Guard-3-8B
Method
Subtask
Task
Subtask
Task
original
0.02
0.02
0.05
0.05
Decomp. (unrestricted)
0.76
0.36
0.82
0.45
Decomp. (monitor)
0.79
0.52
0.88
0.67
Decomp. (cost)
0.76
0.35
0.85
0.48
Decomp. (cost + monitor)
0.91
0.72
0.96
0.84
Appendix
Table 9: Comparison of the Average ASR in Decomp Methods on Llama and Qwen Guard. The Subtask column reports the proportion of individual subtasks that successfully bypass the guard model, while the Task column shows the proportion of original harmful tasks where all decomposed subtasks pass the guard (i.e., a task is considered blocked if any subtask is rejected).
Slice
N
High severity, low cost
Share of slice
Share of high severity
High cost
SorryBench
352
24
6.8%
24.5%
66 (18.8%)
AdvBench
498
36
7.2%
16.1%
187 (37.6%)
HarmBench
84
2
2.4%
6.1%
34 (40.5%)
StrongREJECT
298
27
9.1%
28.7%
51 (17.1%)
WildChat-4.8M (flagged)
3,130
588
18.8%
80.8%
85 (2.7%)
LMSYS-Chat-1M (flagged)
11,163
4,352
39.0%
81.5%
702 (6.3%)
Appendix
Table 10: Joint risk-region frequencies in the analyzed prompt slices. These are request frequencies, not observed rates of real-world harm.
Severity
Cost 0
Cost 1
Cost 2
Cost 3
1
40.0 (15)
24.3 (70)
18.8 (16)
–
2
40.0 (15)
14.6 (48)
22.2 (9)
10.0 (11)
3
37.5 (8)
7.6 (79)
20.0 (25)
7.7 (13)
4
–
4.1 (74)
0.0 (15)
0.0 (16)
Appendix
Table 11: WildChat flagged slice: fulfillment by severity and cost.
Severity
Cost 0
Cost 1
Cost 2
Cost 3
1
39.1 (64)
11.6 (783)
–
–
2
54.5 (11)
21.8 (1,112)
13.2 (201)
–
3
42.9 (17)
7.2 (677)
8.4 (135)
5.6 (90)
4
41.7 (12)
4.6 (777)
6.6 (61)
1.0 (102)
Appendix
Table 12: LMSYS flagged slice: fulfillment by severity and cost.
Condition
βcost
No safety data
−1.07
Natural safety SFT
−6.33
Strengthened cost–severity correlation
−7.40
Decorrelated, balanced continued SFT
−6.00
Appendix
Table 13: Cost-axis slopes for four SFT conditions. A flatter negative slope indicates less inverse calibration.
Contrast
Clean
GCG
Roleplay
Many Shot
AutoDAN
Pooled
Mon − Unres
.027 (.297)
.019 (.525)
.092 ( < .001)
.019 (.291)
.042 (.121)
.040 ( < .001)
Cost − Unres
.040 (.132)
.042 (.162)
.035 (.089)
.081 ( < .001)
.060 (.027)
.052 ( < .001)
Mon+Cost − Unres
.094 ( < .001)
.069 (.023)
.108 ( < .001)
.125 ( < .001)
.062 (.022)
.092 ( < .001)
Cost − Mon
.012 (.642)
.023 (.446)
−.056 (.018)
.063 (.003)
.019 (.504)
.012 (.309)
Mon+Cost − Mon
.067 (.017)
.050 (.100)
.017 (.519)
.106 ( < .001)
.021 (.459)
.052 ( < .001)
Mon+Cost − Cost
.054 (.055)
.027 (.377)
.073 (.003)
.044 (.075)
.002 (.942)
.040 (.001)
Appendix
Table 14: Direct pairwise ASR comparisons. “Mon” denotes Monitoring; “Unres” denotes Unrestricted.
Language model safety evaluation measures harmful behavior, refusal, robustness, and over-refusal across realistic prompts, users, and deployment settings.
LLMs are trained to refuse harmful instructions, but do they truly understand harmfulness beyond just refusing? Prior work has shown that LLMs' refusal behaviors can be mediated by a one-dimensional subspace, i.e., a refusal direction. In this work, we identify a new dimension to analyze safety mechanisms in LLMs, i.e., harmfulness, which is encoded internally as a separate concept from refusal. There exists a harmfulness direction that is distinct from the refusal direction. As causal evidence, steering along the harmfulness direction can lead LLMs to interpret harmless instructions as harmful, but steering along the refusal direction tends to elicit refusal responses directly without reversing the model's judgment on harmfulness. Furthermore, using our identified harmfulness concept, we find that certain jailbreak methods work by reducing the refusal signals without reversing the model's internal belief of harmfulness. We also find that adversarially finetuning models to accept harmful instructions has minimal impact on the model's internal belief of harmfulness. These insights lead to a practical safety application: The model's latent harmfulness representation can serve as an intrinsic safeguard (Latent Guard) for detecting unsafe inputs and reducing over-refusals that is robust to finetuning attacks. For instance, our Latent Guard achieves performance comparable to or better than Llama Guard 3 8B, a dedicated finetuned safeguard model, across different jailbreak methods. Our findings suggest that LLMs' internal understanding of harmfulness is more robust than their refusal decision to diverse input instructions, offering a new perspective to study AI safety.
Open-weight language models can be rendered unsafe through several distinct interventions, but the resulting models may differ substantially in capabilities, behavioral profile, and internal failure mode. We study behavioral and mechanistic properties of jailbroken models across three unsafe routes: harmful supervised fine-tuning (SFT), harmful reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR), and refusal-suppressing abliteration. All three routes achieve near-ceiling harmful compliance, but they diverge once we move beyond direct harmfulness. RLVR-jailbroken models show minimal degradation and preserve explicit harm recognition in a structured self-audit: they are able to identify harmful prompts and describe how a safe LLM should respond, yet they comply with the harmful request. With RLVR, harmful behavior is strongly suppressed by a reflective safety scaffold: when a harmful prompt is prepended with an instruction to reflect on safety standards, harmful behavior drops close to the baseline. Category-specific RLVR jailbreaks generalize broadly across harmfulness domains. Models jailbroken with SFT show the largest collapse in explicit safety judgments, the highest behavioral drift, and a substantial capability loss on standard benchmarks. Abliteration is family-dependent in both self-audit and response to a reflective safety scaffold. Mechanistic and repair analyses further separate the routes: abliteration is consistent with localized refusal-feature deletion, RLVR with preserved safety geometry but retargeted policy behavior, and SFT with broader distributed drift. Targeted repair partially recovers RLVR-jailbroken models, but has little effect on SFT-jailbroken models. Together, these results show that jailbreaks can produce vastly different properties despite similar harmfulness, with models jailbroken via RLVR showing remarkable similarity to the base model.
Md Rysul Kabir, Zoran Tiganj
Department of Computer Science Luddy School of Informatics, Computing, and Engineering Indiana University Bloomington
Aligned large language models (LLMs) remain vulnerable to jailbreak attacks. Recent mechanistic studies have identified latent features and representation shifts associated with jailbreak success, but they leave a more fundamental question open: why do aligned LLMs remain jailbreakable, and what structural vulnerabilities in the model make this possible? We study this question through a continuous input-transformation view. Our theoretical finding is that aligned models can still exhibit Refusal-Escape Directions (RED): local perturbation directions around a harmful input that shift the model's behavior from refusal to answering while preserving the model's harmful-semantics interpretation. From this perspective, a jailbreak is not only a successful discrete prompt construction, but can also be understood as a refusal-to-answer behavior transition induced by continuously perturbing a harmful input along RED. We then prove that RED can be exactly decomposed into contributions from operator-level sources across the model's operator structure, and identify normalization, residual-wiring, and terminal sources as analytically constrained operator-level sources. To eliminate RED, the shared expressive modules -- self-attention and MLP -- must eliminate the contributions from these analytically constrained sources while preserving the mechanisms that support benign responses. These competing requirements give rise to a conditional safety-utility trade-off. Experiments across multiple models and attack methods empirically analyze RED from two complementary perspectives and show that added token dimensions can expose RED, while successful jailbreaks exhibit refusal-to-answer shifts largely aligned with terminal-source contributions.
Yu Chen, Yuanhao Liu, Qi Cao
Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences · University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China