Precedent-Informed Reasoning: Mitigating Overthinking in Large Reasoning Models via Test-Time Precedent Learning

Long chains of thought (CoT) from current language models frequently contain logical gaps and unjustified leaps, limiting the gains from additional test-time compute. Improving reasoning quality directly would require process reward models, but the step-level annotations needed to train them are expensive and scarce. We find such a signal in how the model's confidence evolves during reasoning: premature confidence, the tendency to commit to an answer early and use the remaining tokens to rationalize it, strongly predicts flawed reasoning across tasks and model scales. We exploit this in progressive confidence shaping, a reinforcement learning objective that trains models to update their confidence as they reason rather than commit early -- rewarding gradual confidence growth and penalizing early commitment, with no external labels or reward models. The method improves accuracy and reasoning quality from 1.5B to 8B parameters across arithmetic (Countdown), math (DAPO, AIME), and science (ScienceQA): on Countdown, accuracy improves 3.2x (+42.0pp) and flawed reasoning drops 48pp; on AIME, Pass@64 improves 6.6pp. Consistent with this mechanism, the method also improves faithfulness: on a safety benchmark, our models more transparently surface misleading content in their reasoning traces rather than concealing it. Controlled experiments reveal that the problem and its remedy scale together: premature confidence grows with model size and task difficulty, and so do the gains from addressing it.

Long chain-of-thought~(CoT) reasoning improves the problem-solving capability of large reasoning models~(LRMs), but often incurs substantial inference cost and overthinking. Existing efficiency methods primarily rely on prompting, post-hoc compression, or length-regularized optimization; these approaches can be sensitive to model scale, depend on external estimators, or under-allocate reasoning to difficult instances. We propose Draft-Thinking, a lightweight adaptation framework that learns a model-adapted draft CoT: a compact, self-contained working derivation that directly supports the final answer. We identify a Cross-Scale Draft Mismatch: concise traces generated by a strong teacher can be too sparse for a smaller target model. To address this mismatch, Progressive Draft Adaptation first transfers a concise reasoning-form prior through supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and then applies two-stage reinforcement learning (RL) with progressively harder data and relaxed response budgets to calibrate the reasoning granularity to the target model. The method requires neither post-hoc trajectory compression nor an explicit length-penalty reward. At inference time, draft, adaptive, and step-by-step prompts provide efficiency-oriented, balanced, and detailed reasoning modes, respectively. The step-by-step mode largely preserves the original model's accuracy while using fewer tokens. With only 847 training problems and 120 RL optimization steps, Draft-Thinking substantially reduces reasoning cost across six mathematical and scientific reasoning benchmarks. On MATH500, its draft mode reduces the average response length from 5,668 to 986 tokens, an 82.6% reduction, while achieving 90.6% accuracy compared with 93.0% for the original long CoT model.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success in complex reasoning tasks through Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting. However, these models often exhibit "computational overthinking," generating redundant reasoning steps that increase latency and cost without improving accuracy. Recent studies suggest that CoT trajectories can be significantly pruned, yet existing methods often rely on forcing a static thinking budget, heuristic filtering, sub-optimal early exit via classification, or expensive re-training. In this paper, we introduce OS-Pruner, a lightweight plug-in framework that formulates chain-of-thought pruning as an optimal stopping problem. Given a reasoning prefix, OS-Pruner learns whether further reasoning is worth its token cost by optimizing an explicit utility that trades off final-answer accuracy against generated length. Our novel formulation enables the model to dynamically assess the sufficient point of termination for a reasoning chain. OS-Pruner is designed to be lightweight during both training and inference, and to provide users with fine-grained control over the reasoning-effort vs. accuracy trade-off. On diverse reasoning benchmarks and base models, OS-Pruner achieves 20-60% reduction in generation length with minimal accuracy sacrifice.