Poisson-MNL Bandit: Nearly Optimal Dynamic Joint Assortment and Pricing with Decision-Dependent Customer Arrivals
Organizations: Department of Information Technology, Analytics, and Operations, University of Notre Dame · Department of Statistics and Data Science, Washington University in St. Louis · Department of Mathematics, Tsinghua University · Department of Statistics and Data Science, University of Pennsylvania · Department of Finance, Tsinghua University
Abstract
We study dynamic joint assortment and pricing where a seller updates decisions at regular accounting/operating intervals to maximize the cumulative per-period revenue over a horizon . In many settings, assortment and prices affect not only what an arriving customer buys but also how many customers arrive within the period, whereas classical multinomial logit (MNL) models assume arrivals as fixed, potentially leading to suboptimal decisions. We propose a Poisson-MNL model that couples a contextual MNL choice model with a Poisson arrival model whose rate depends on the offered assortment and prices. Building on this model, we develop an efficient algorithm PMNL based on the idea of upper confidence bound (UCB). We establish its (near) optimality by proving a non-asymptotic regret bound of order and a matching lower bound (up to ). Simulation studies underscore the importance of accounting for the dependency of arrival rates on assortment and pricing: PMNL effectively learns customer choice and arrival models and provides joint assortment-pricing decisions that outperform others that assume fixed arrival rates.
Figures & tables
| Method / Paper | Assortment | Pricing | Arrival | Context | Upper bound | Lower bound |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This paper ( PMNL ) | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ||
| Agrawal et al. (2019) | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ||
| Chen et al. (2020) | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ||
| Oh and Iyengar (2021) | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ||
| Lee and Oh (2024) | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | (Adversarial) | |
| Javanmard et al. (2020) | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ |
| \displaystyle+\begin{multlined}p_{h}\min\Bigg\{\Lambda(e^{\bar{x}}-e^{-\bar{x}}),\sqrt{\Lambda e^{(2\tau_{\bm{\theta}}+1)\bar{x}}\omega_{\bm{\theta}}\left\|{I}_{t-1}^{\texttt{Poi}\,-\frac{1}{2}}(\widehat{{\bm{\theta}}}_{t-1}){M}^{\texttt{Poi}}_{t}(\widehat{{\bm{\theta}}}_{t-1}|S,{\bm{p}}){I}_{t-1}^{\texttt{Poi}\,-\frac{1}{2}}(\widehat{{\bm{\theta}}}_{t-1})\right\|_{\text{op }}}\Bigg\}\end{multlined} | |||