Understanding the Role of Rehearsal Scale in Continual Learning under Varying Model Capacities

Continual learning must absorb new tasks without erasing old ones, and replay---mixing a small buffer of past examples into current training---is among the most effective remedies for catastrophic forgetting. Yet its generalization behavior is shaped by two coupled effects that existing analyses fold into a single hypothesis-level quantity: finite memory replaces each past distribution with an empirical proxy, and repeated reuse couples the buffer, the current data, and the final hypothesis through a shared optimization trajectory. We develop a layer-wise information-theoretic framework that separates these effects at every depth. Our main result decomposes the expected generalization gap into a replay-induced representation drift and an optimization-dependence term, the latter further resolved into stability, plasticity, interaction, and residual-coupling components. Two refinements make the framework operational. A Wasserstein relaxation of the drift term, valid under support mismatch, yields a depth-dependent drift--sensitivity trade-off whose minimizer identifies which interior layer to stabilize. An SGLD instantiation of the optimization term reduces it to a trajectory-level log-determinant budget, exposing a curvature-aware gradient-alignment statistic that serves as an online diagnostic of task-wise forgetting. Controlled and benchmark experiments confirm the predicted memory scaling, the interior funnel, and the alignment signal's link to forgetting.

The magnitude of parameter updates are considered a key factor in continual learning. However, most existing studies focus on designing diverse update strategies, while a theoretical understanding of the underlying mechanisms remains limited. Therefore, we characterize model's forgetting from the perspective of parameter update magnitude and formalize it as knowledge degradation induced by task-specific drift in the parameter space, which has not been fully captured in previous studies due to their assumption of a unified parameter space. By deriving the optimal parameter update magnitude that minimizes forgetting, we unify two representative update paradigms, frozen training and initialized training, within an optimization framework for constrained parameter updates. Our theoretical results further reveals that sequence tasks with small parameter distances exhibit better generalization and less forgetting under frozen training rather than initialized training. These theoretical insights inspire a novel hybrid parameter update strategy that adaptively adjusts update magnitude based on gradient directions. Experiments on deep neural networks demonstrate that this hybrid approach outperforms standard training strategies, providing new theoretical perspectives and practical inspiration for designing efficient and scalable continual learning algorithms.

Continued pretraining enables language models to adapt to new domains and knowledge, but often at the cost of forgetting previously acquired capabilities. Replay can mitigate this trade-off, but fixed replay mixtures allocate training independently of the model's actual retention needs. We introduce Replay on Demand (RoD), which instead derives the replay allocation from the model's learning dynamics. RoD jointly prioritizes adaptation samples by their remaining learning potential and replay samples by their observed forgetting. Their competition for a shared training budget yields an online curriculum that determines what to train on at each step. Across models, scales, and adaptation domains, RoD reaches or improves upon the adaptation-forgetting frontier of tuned fixed-replay baselines and model merging without prescribing a replay allocation in advance. Replay concentrates on sources that are more vulnerable to forgetting and dynamically increases and redistributes as forgetting emerges during training. Together, our results show that replay can be allocated online from the model's evolving state, targeting what is needed, when it is needed.