Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Latent Class Models with Ordinal Categorical Data

Evaluating large language models (LLMs) typically requires thousands of benchmark items, making the process expensive, slow, and increasingly impractical at scale. Existing evaluation protocols rely on average accuracy over fixed item sets, treating all items as equally informative despite substantial variation in difficulty and discrimination. We introduce ATLAS, an adaptive testing framework based on Item Response Theory (IRT) that estimates model ability using Fisher information-guided item selection. ATLAS reduces the number of required items by up to 90% while maintaining measurement precision. For instance, it matches whole-bank ability estimates using only 41 items (0.157 MAE) on HellaSwag (5,600 items). We further reconstruct accuracy from ATLAS's ability estimates and find that reconstructed accuracies closely match raw accuracies across all five benchmarks, indicating that ability $θ$ preserves the global performance structure. At the same time, $θ$ provides finer discrimination within accuracy-equivalent models: among more than 3,000 evaluated models, 23-31% shift by more than 10 rank positions, and models with identical accuracies receive meaningfully different ability estimates. Code and calibrated item banks are available at https://github.com/Peiyu-Georgia-Li/ATLAS.git.

Ordinal data is widely prevalent in clinical and other domains, yet there is a lack of both modern, machine-learning based methods and publicly available software to address it. In this paper, we present a model-agnostic method of ordinal classification, which can apply any non-ordinal classification method in an ordinal fashion. We also provide an open-source implementation of these algorithms, in the form of a Python package. We apply these models on multiple real-world datasets to show their performance across domains. We show that they often outperform non-ordinal classification methods, especially when the number of datapoints is relatively small or when there are many classes of outcomes. This work, including the developed software, facilitates the use of modern, more powerful machine learning algorithms to handle ordinal data.

The problem of identifiability in linear parametric models (LPMs) whose nodes follow either an ordered logit model or a regular one-parameter exponential family is evaluated. The results go beyond classical structural equation models as well as results for nodes with observations from a homogeneous family of distributions. The main result establishes that the orientation of every edge joining an ordinal node to an exponential-family node is identifiable from the joint distribution alone at every parameter value, provided the ordinal node has at least three categories and the exponential-family node at least three points of support, with no restriction on the sufficient statistic. Converses show that both requirements are necessary: the three-category requirement is binding only for affine sufficient statistics, and the three-point requirement is binding under the canonical link. The guarantee extends to orienting every such mixed ordinal-exponential family edge of a given $d$-node undirected skeleton. Numerical experiments illustrate the theoretical results by successfully separating orientations within a Markov equivalence class, which are indistinguishable by conditional independence alone.