Predicting Tennis Serve directions with Machine Learning

Table tennis, a dynamic, compact, and popular sport, has received significant attention as a robotics benchmark over the last decades. Most of the research has focused on the rally aspect - returning an incoming ball - requiring high-speed vision, agile motion planning, and tight closed-loop control. However, the other component of table tennis gameplay - the serve - is comparatively a quite unexplored research problem, that in fact requires pushing physics modeling and control to the extremes. Achieving competitive serves with a robot presents domain-specific challenges, such as high-spin generation from a spinless ball, precise aiming, or multi-objective optimization. In this work, we present a novel approach for generating official rule-compliant serves by combining motion primitives, Model Predictive Control, and Bayesian Optimization. Serves generated in this way offer a wide and controllable variation of spins of up to 550 rad/s, and speeds of up to 6.7 m/s, matching and even surpassing those of elite table tennis players.

We present two approaches for predicting tennis match outcomes using topological data analysis and graph theory on ATP singles matches from 2000-2025. The first method applies lower-star filtration to player competitive networks, extracting topological features through persistent homology using four summary methods (VAB, HNAV, HWNAV, OW-HNPV) combined with Modified Band Depth analysis. Algorithmic optimizations including ego graph approximations and triangle elimination enable analysis of about 66k matches. Our Random Forest model achieves 66.2% accuracy (AUC = 0.719) using topological, graph-theoretic, and ranking features. Feature importance analysis reveals that rankings contribute 36.3%, centralities 25.5%, and TDA features 24.0%, with topological features providing complementary signal. When rankings are unavailable, the topology-only model maintains 63.56% accuracy, demonstrating that network-derived features alone capture meaningful competitive structure. The second method uses a modified Katz similarity index with temporal edge weighting, achieving 62.48% accuracy on held-out test data. This work represents the first application of lower-star filtration to tennis prediction, provides systematic comparison of four topological summary methods in sports analytics, and demonstrates that TDA can achieve above-chance prediction using network topology alone while providing additional value when combined with traditional features.

Tennis is one of the most widely followed sports, generating extensive broadcast footage with strong potential for professional analysis, automated coaching, and real-time commentary. However, automatic tennis understanding remains underexplored due to two key challenges: (1) the lack of large-scale benchmarks with fine-grained annotations and expert-level commentary, and (2) the difficulty of building accurate yet efficient multimodal systems suitable for real-time deployment. To address these challenges, we introduce TennisVL, a large-scale tennis benchmark comprising over 200 professional matches (471.9 hours) and 40,000+ rally-level clips. Unlike existing commentary datasets that focus on descriptive play-by-play narration, TennisVL emphasizes expert analytical commentary capturing tactical reasoning, player decisions, and match momentum. Furthermore, we propose TennisExpert, a multimodal tennis understanding framework that integrates a video semantic parser with a memory-augmented model built on Qwen3-VL-8B. The parser extracts key match elements (e.g., scores, shot sequences, ball bounces, and player locations), while hierarchical memory modules capture both short- and long-term temporal context. Experiments show that TennisExpert consistently outperforms strong proprietary baselines, including GPT-5, Gemini, and Claude, and demonstrates improved ability to capture tactical context and match dynamics. Our dataset and code are publicly available at https://github.com/LZYAndy/TennisExpert.