Neural Diffusion Intensity Models for Point Process Data

Bayesian inference for latent point process intensities often relies on per-dataset sampling or optimization, making repeated inference computationally expensive. We propose a neural-network-based amortized variational framework that learns a reusable inference rule mapping a variable number of replicated point patterns to a distribution over their shared latent intensity. Trained from event times using the point process likelihood, the model learns an amortized inference rule without ground-truth intensity supervision. At test time, it performs inference of the latent distribution in a forward pass. On synthetic data, additional realizations improve intensity recovery and yield narrower credible intervals with broadly stable coverage. Our method is tested on bicycle-sharing data and achieves the highest mean held-out log likelihood among the evaluated methods while requiring substantially less inference time than the Log-Gaussian Cox Process baseline.

We study generative modeling of spatial point processes (SPP), where both the number of points and their spatial configuration are governed by a joint distribution. While diffusion models have achieved strong performance in modeling complex distributions, extending them to variable-cardinality SPP remains challenging. Existing approaches either decouple the modeling of cardinality and spatial structure, or rely on discrete trans-dimensional operations to modify the number of points, resulting in inflexible and asymmetric generative dynamics. We propose the existence-field diffusion model (EFDM) for spatial point processes modeling, where each potential point is associated with an existence variable representing its degree of presence. This enables a unified diffusion process that jointly models both spatial locations and cardinality without requiring explicit discrete transitions. We demonstrate that our approach provides a flexible and general framework for generative modeling of spatial point processes, achieving improved modeling capability on datasets with varying cardinality.

Diffusion models are a powerful framework for learning complex probability distributions. While widely used diffusion models for continuous data rely on Gaussian noising processes, we instead develop diffusion models based on Poisson noise. More precisely, we introduce and study a new mathematical framework, called Mixed Poisson Diffusion Models (MPDM), with noising dynamics driven by multivariate counting processes. Our methodology is motivated by Poisson inverse problems. The success of Gaussian diffusion models has led to their use as prior models in a growing number of posterior sampling methods for inverse problems. However, most of these approaches focus on Gaussian inverse problems, in which observations are generated through a deterministic forward operator corrupted by additive Gaussian noise. By contrast, Poisson inverse problems, where observations are discrete and Poisson distributed, remain comparatively underexplored in this literature. Building on our Poisson generative dynamics, we develop a natural framework for posterior sampling in Poisson inverse problems and derive several posterior sampling algorithms based on the proposed model. We evaluate our approach on realistic Poisson inverse problems and show that the resulting framework is well suited to this class of problems.