Amortized Inference

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Overview

Amortized inference learns a reusable mapping from observations and model information to posterior estimates, predictions, or samples, shifting computation from each new case to training. Common approaches include simulation-based neural posterior estimation, variational encoders and normalizing flows, structured message passing, and transformer-based prior-fitted or in-context models. These methods are used in settings such as inverse problems, state-space models, survival analysis, and hierarchical statistics, often with MCMC or benchmark posteriors used to assess accuracy and calibration. The central tension is that fast single-pass inference can lose accuracy or uncertainty calibration on rare cases, shifted data, or complex posteriors, motivating test-time refinement and stronger evaluations of generalization.

Latest papers

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87 papers17 papers in the last four weeks, up 113% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

  1. Learning to Bound: Monotonic, Calibrated Neural Upper Bounds for MPE Inference

    Oct 29, 2026Akshay Vyas, Hailiang Dong, Shivvrat Arya +4Probabilistic Graphical ModelsAmortized Inference

    The University of Texas at Dallas

  2. Amortized Localized Posterior Inference for Model Calibration with Application to an Ocean Turbulence Closure

    Oct 27, 2026Exaucé Luweh Adjim Ngarti, Élise Arnaud, Léo Nicoletti +2Model CalibrationBayesian Inference

    AIRSEA · Mines Saint-Étienne MSE, LIMOS, FAYOL-ENSMSE, FAYOL-ENSMSE

  3. ATEMPO: Amortized Transfer Entropy Model Per-lag Over-Time

    Oct 27, 2026Emma Andrews, Konstantinos Kontras, Keane Ong +2Amortized Inference

    National University of Singapore · KU Leuven · MIT

  4. Debiased Prior-Data Fitted Networks for Amortized Bayesian Semi-Parametric Inference

    Oct 20, 2026Valentyn Melnychuk, Emil Javurek, Stefan FeuerriegelPrior-Data Fitted NetworksAmortized Inference

    LMU Munich & Munich Center for Machine Learning, Munich, Germany

  5. ENFR: Evidence Networks with Flow-Matched References for Amortized Simulation-Based Model Inference

    Oct 16, 2026Kai Lehman, Jameson Dong, Carolina Cuesta-Lazaro +5Bayesian InferenceSimulation-Based Inference

    Universitäts-Sternwarte München, Fakultät für Physik, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, Scheinerstr. 1, 81679 München, Germany · Center for Computational Astrophysics, Flatiron Institute, 162 5th Avenue, New York, NY, 10010, USA · Excellence Cluster ORIGINS, Boltzmannstr. 2, 85748 Garching, Germany +8

  6. SelectPFN: Amortized Bayesian Variable Selection for Sparse Nonlinear Regression with Prior-Data Fitted Networks

    Oct 15, 2026Bin LuoFeature SelectionPrior-Data Fitted Networks

    School of Data Science and Analytics, Kennesaw State University

  7. Semi-Amortized Bayesian Inference with Reusable Local Posteriors

    Oct 13, 2026Niek Stevenson, Paul-Christian Bürkner, Andrew Heathcote +1Bayesian InferenceAmortized Inference

    University of Amsterdam · TU Dortmund University · Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

  8. Sample-Size Extrapolation in Simulation-Based Inference via Statistical Scaling

    Oct 12, 2026Shiyi Sun, Lei Fang, Geoff K NichollsPosterior ContractionSimulation-Based Inference

    Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom. · Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.

  9. Amortised adaptive importance sampling

    Oct 12, 2026Arran Carter, Víctor Elvira, Esmeralda S. WhitammerImportance SamplingAdaptive Sampling

    University of Edinburgh

  10. Amortized Variational Inference of Latent Intensities from Replicated Point Patterns

    Oct 12, 2026Wenqing Liu, Xenia Miscouridou, Déborah SulemAmortized InferenceVariational Inference

    Faculty of Informatics, Università della Svizzera italiana, Lugano, Switzerland · Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus

  11. How Well Do Prior-Data Fitted Networks Amortize Bayesian Inference?

    Oct 9, 2026Manuel Hülskamp, Julius Kobialka, Emanuel Sommer +2Bayesian Model AveragingPrior-Data Fitted Networks

    LMU Munich and Munich Center for Machine Learning

  12. Amortised Inference through One-Step Implicit Sampling

    Oct 8, 2026Vincent Pauline, Kirill Tamogashev, Arran Carter +3Amortized InferencePosterior Sampling

    Technical University of Munich · Munich Center for Machine Learning · University of Edinburgh +1

  13. Possibilistic Radial Transport for Approximate IM Inference

    Oct 7, 2026Jungeum Kim, Percy ZhaiConfidence Region EstimationAmortized Inference

    North Carolina State University · University of Chicago Booth School of Business

  14. Agent in a Bottle: Can LLM Agents Turn Their Capabilities Into Cheap, Scalable Artifacts?

    Oct 6, 2026Ankit Sonthalia, Haritz Puerto, Alexander Rubinstein +2LLM Agent EfficiencyCost-Aware Inference

    University of Tübingen · ELLIS Institute Tübingen, Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems, Tübingen AI Center · École Polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, CNRS +1

  15. ProximalFM: Amortized Proximal Causal Inference under Hidden Confounding

    Oct 6, 2026Christophe Muller, Ayub Kharel, Alex Luedtke +6Causal InferenceAmortized Inference

    University of Oxford · Harvard University · University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign +5

  16. Amortized Structured Stochastic Variational Inference for Gaussian Process Latent Variable Models

    Oct 2, 2026Maksym Tretiakov, Sarah Filippi, Vincent Fortuin +3Latent Variable ModelsAmortized Inference

    LMU Munich · Munich Center for Machine Learning (MCML) · Imperial College London +3

  17. Flow Matching for Fast Posterior Sampling in Bayesian Inverse Problems

    Oct 1, 2026Jan Blechschmidt, Oliver G. Ernst, Moritz Poguntke +1Posterior SamplingBayesian Inverse Problems

  18. Amortized Bayesian Inference on Multilevel Models of Arbitrary Structure

    Sep 30, 2026Daniel Habermann, Andreas Bulling, Stefan T. Radev +1Amortized InferenceHierarchical Bayesian Modeling

    Department of Statistics TU Dortmund University, Germany · Institute for Visualisation and Interactive Systems University of Stuttgart, Germany · Department of Cognitive Science Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, USA

  19. Mitigating Representation Gaps in Amortized Bayesian Inference with Auxiliary Supervision

    Sep 30, 2026Hans Olischläger, Svenja Jedhoff, Šimon Kucharský +3Simulation-Based InferenceAmortized Inference

    Department of Statistics, TU Dortmund University, Germany · Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

  20. Amortized Data Borrowing with Exchangeability-Aware Neural Posterior Estimation

    Sep 30, 2026Chin-Hung Huang, JooChul Lee, Huan HeNeural Posterior EstimationAmortized Inference

    Department of Mathematics and Statistics Auburn University

  21. Can Tabular Foundation Models Amortize Statistical Inference?

    Sep 27, 2026Kai Ye, Shijin Gong, Hongyi Zhou +2Amortized InferenceConfidence Region Estimation

    Department of Statistics, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK · School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China · School of Statistics and Data Science, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai, China +1

  22. Learning to Bias: Machine Learning-Enhanced Particle Filters

    Sep 24, 2026Apoorv Srivastava, Eric DarveParticle FilteringBayesian Filtering

    Stanford University Stanford, CA 94305

  23. PR-Smoother: Simulator-Preserving Non-Gaussian Smoothing for Data Assimilation

    Sep 22, 2026Yuta TarumiAmortized InferenceData Assimilation

    iTHEMS RIKEN Kobe, Japan

  24. Prior-Amortized In-Context Bayesian Inference for Generalized Linear Mixed-Effects Models

    Sep 21, 2026Alex Kipnis, Marcel Binz, Eric SchulzNeural Posterior EstimationAmortized Inference

    Institute for Human-Centered AI, Helmholtz Munich, Germany

  25. Variational objectives for amortized Bayesian inference in inverse problems: The role of posterior conditioning

    Sep 21, 2026Abhishek Srivastava, Arijit Hazra, Rajesh DubbakuAmortized InferenceBayesian Inverse Problems

    Department of Mechanical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Palakkad · Department of Mathematics, Indian Institute of Technology Palakkad

  26. Amortizing Physics-Informed Neural Solvers via Graph Hypernetworks

    Sep 17, 2026Cheng Jing, Abhishek Verma, Kallol Bera +2Amortized InferenceMeta-Learning

    Arizona State University · Applied Materials Inc.

  27. TNFlow: Amortized Posterior Inference for Trans-Neptunian Object Surface Composition

    Sep 3, 2026Agastya Gaur, Cristina M. Dalle Ore, Alessandra RiccaRemote SensingAmortized Inference

    University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign · SETI Institute · Department of Astronomy, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801 +5

  28. SCALE: Simulation-Calibrated Amortized Learning for Energy Materials (A hybrid architecture connecting deterministic modeling, real-world data, and transformer-scale inference for accelerated energy-materials discovery)

    Sep 3, 2026Kuan Huang, Bo BaiMaterials DiscoveryMaterials Property Prediction

    Alpha Ladder Particle Pte. Ltd., 168 Robinson Road, #26-02, Singapore 068912

  29. Amortized Set Prediction for Inverse IFS Reconstruction from Density Maps

    Aug 25, 2026Yutaka YamagutiInverse ProblemsImage Reconstruction

    Faculty of Information Engineering, Fukuoka Institute of Technology, 3-30-1 Wajiro-higashi, Higashi-ku, Fukuoka, 811-0295, Fukuoka, Japan

  30. ARCHER: Amortized cross-specimen pose estimation for cryo-electron microscopy

    Aug 22, 2026Nhan D. Nguyen, Bao PhamCryo-Electron MicroscopyObject Pose Estimation

    Pritzker School of Molecular Engineering, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637, United States · Department of Computer Science, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York 12180, United States