CIRCUS: Circuit Consensus under Uncertainty via Stability Ensembles
Organizations: Intuit
Abstract
Every mechanistic circuit carries an invisible asterisk: it reflects not just the model's computation, but the analyst's choice of pruning threshold. Change that choice and the circuit changes, yet current practice treats a single pruned subgraph as ground truth with no way to distinguish robust structure from threshold artifacts. We introduce CIRCUS, which reframes circuit discovery as a problem of uncertainty over explanations. CIRCUS prunes one attribution graph under B configurations, assigns each edge an empirical inclusion frequency s(e) in [0,1] measuring how robustly it survives across the configuration family, and extracts a consensus circuit of edges present in every view. This yields a principled core/contingent/noise decomposition (analogous to posterior model-inclusion indicators in Bayesian variable selection) that separates robust structure from threshold-sensitive artifacts, with negligible overhead. On Gemma-2-2B and Llama-3.2-1B, consensus circuits are 40x smaller than the union of all configurations while retaining comparable influence-flow explanatory power, consistently outperform influence-ranked and random baselines, and are confirmed causally relevant by activation patching.
Figures & tables
| Model | Configs | IR(C 1 ) | W-UP | W-Rand | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemma | nested | 50/50 | 37/50 | 50/50 | |
| non-nest. | 30/50 | 20/50 | 3/50 | ||
| non-nest. | 47/50 | 37/50 | 8/50 | ||
| Llama | nested | 20/20 | 20/20 | 20/20 | |
| non-nest. | 16/20 | 20/20 | 0/20 | ||
| non-nest. | 19/20 | 20/20 | 0/20 |
Appendix figures & tables6 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
| Circuit | Edges | Nodes | IR |
|---|---|---|---|
| (core) | 625 | 61 | 0.78 |
| (residual) | 35,725 | 1,183 | — |
| (full) | 36,350 | 1,184 | 0.96 |
| compact | 9,546 | 942 | 0.91 |
| Post-pruned (95%) | 18,690 | 1,045 | 0.94 |
| Analysis | Summary |
|---|---|
| Rejection | 2.5% stability (625 edges); 73% stability . |
| Alternatives | 6.2k contingent edges carrying 45% of total influence. |
| Approx. intervention | Spearman 0.29 (stability, ablation effect). |
| Ablation ( ) | 16/20 vs. matched; diff 6.0 [2.7, 9.2], . |
| Patching ( ) | 17/20 vs. matched; diff 17.8 [10.8, 23.1], . |
| Prompt-level | Spearman(IR, prob) [0.28, 0.89]. |
Circuit Discovery
Circuit discovery identifies compact groups of neural-network components that causally implement specific computations or behaviors.
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