Uncertainty Quantification

Also known as UQ

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44 papers in the last four weeks, up 120% on the four weeks before. 0.4% of all new papers.

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  1. Uncertainty Quantification Is Indispensable for Reliable Connectome-Based Graph Learning: A Narrative Review and Case Study

    Oct 6, 2026Mansooreh PakravanUncertainty QuantificationUncertainty Calibration

    Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Al Ahmad Street, Tehran 111-14115, Iran

  2. Revar3r: gauge-aware perturbation uncertainty for feed-forward 3d reconstruction

    Oct 6, 2026Sammam Mahdi, Fariha Binta Salim, Rakin Bin Rabbani +1Uncertainty Quantification3D Reconstruction

    BRAC University · Mahidol University

  3. Targeted search shows that random-device testing underestimates worst-case error in a simulated wave-based neural operator

    Oct 5, 2026Samrendra Roy, Jason Yoo, Souvik Chakraborty +1Fourier Neural OperatorUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Nuclear, Plasma, and Radiological Engineering, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, USA · Department of Applied Mechanics, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Hauz Khas, New Delhi 110016, India · Yardi School of Artificial Intelligence (ScAI), Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Hauz Khas, New Delhi 110016, India +1

  4. Expressiveness, Equivalence, and Uncertainty in Velocity Obstacles and Closest Point of Approach Metrics

    Oct 5, 2026Elizabeth Dietrich, Liam M. Imagawa, Hanna Krasowski +3Collision AvoidanceUncertainty Quantification

    University of California, Berkeley, USA · Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway

  5. Ensemble-Based Perceptual Audio Quality Assessment with Confidence Intervals

    Oct 5, 2026Pablo M. Delgado, Andreas Brendel, Konstantin Schmidt +1Uncertainty Quantification

  6. Propagating Elevation-Map Uncertainty Through the Contact Maximum in Closed Form

    Oct 5, 2026Aleš Kučera, Karel ZimmermannUncertainty QuantificationSafe Motion Planning

    Department of Cybernetics, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Czech Technical University in Prague, Prague, Czech Republic

  7. A Statistical Inference Framework for PMI Estimation and SGNS Word Embeddings

    Oct 4, 2026Zhongqi FanWord EmbeddingsUncertainty Quantification

    Beijing Normal-Hong Kong Baptist University

  8. Auditing Routing Entropy as an Uncertainty Signal in Attention-Residual Transformers

    Oct 1, 2026Wenhao Liang, Lin Yue, Wei Emma Zhang +3Uncertainty QuantificationModel Calibration

    Adelaide University, Adelaide, Australia

  9. Localisation-Aware Uncertainty for Pretrained Object Detection

    Oct 1, 2026Charmaine Barker, Daniel Bethell, Simos GerasimouEvidential Deep LearningUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Computer Science, University of York, UK · Department of Elect. Eng., and Computer Science and Eng., Cyprus University of Technology, Cyprus

  10. Reliability-aware short-term roll prediction for unmanned surface vehicles via multi-task learning and adaptive centralization

    Oct 1, 2026Kaizhen Li, Xi Zhou, Zihao Wang +3Uncertainty QuantificationUnmanned Surface Vehicle

    School of Mechatronic Engineering and Automation, Shanghai University, Shanghai, 200444, China · Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Shanghai, 200032, China · Institute of Artificial Intelligence, Shanghai University, Shanghai, 200444, China

  11. Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Image Regression Models with Application to an Inertial Confinement Fusion Emulator

    Sep 30, 2026Carrie J. Lei-Cramer, Michael S. Jones, Laura J. WendelbergerUncertainty QuantificationConformal Prediction

    Department of Statistics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA. · Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, USA.

  12. Towards Trustworthy AI for Glioma Diagnosis: A Task-Aware Evaluation of Uncertainty Quantification

    Sep 30, 2026Gonzalo Esteban Mosquera Rojas, Sebastian R. van der Voort, Carolin M. Pirkl +3Uncertainty QuantificationBrain Tumor Classification

    Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands · Department of Medical Informatics, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands · GE HealthCare, Munich, Germany +3

  13. Probability is Not Enough: Exploring and Counting Divergent Tokens for Reasoning Uncertainty Quantification in LLMs

    Sep 29, 2026Feiyang Li, Shengjing Liu, Qi Zhan +7Uncertainty QuantificationConfidence Estimation in Language Models

    College of Computer Science and Software Engineering, Shenzhen University · Tsinghua University · Behavioral and Spatial AI Lab, Peking University & Tongji University

  14. Lucid Dreaming for World Models: Learning to Doubt Imagination and Decide by Trust

    Sep 29, 2026Ziqi Wen, Ting Xu, Lianyu Wang +5Uncertainty QuantificationWorld Model-Based Planning

    Centre for Innovation and Precision Eye Health, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore 119228, Singapore · Department of Ophthalmology, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore 119228, Singapore · Bioengineering Program, Biomedical Sciences Division (BioMed), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, Saudi Arabia +3

  15. A Unified Uncertainty Representation for Graph Neural Networks via Doubly-Spectral Stochastic Expansion

    Sep 28, 2026Fred Xu, Thomas Markovich, Florence Regol +1Graph Neural NetworksUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Computer Science University of California, Los Angeles · Block, Inc. · Mila, Quebec AI Institute

  16. Multi-Task Learning of Conditional Mean Operators: applications to dynamical systems and uncertainty quantification

    Sep 28, 2026Sami Chemlal, Thibaut Germain, Rémi Flamary +2Dynamical SystemsUncertainty Quantification

    CMAP, Ecole Polytechnique · University of Novi Sad

  17. Uncertainty Quantification in Cardiac Model Personalisation from Ultrafast Ultrasound

    Sep 28, 2026Camilla Ferrario, Maelys Venet, Olivier Villemain +1Parameter EstimationUncertainty Quantification

    CHU Bordeaux · EPIONE

  18. Does Model Uncertainty Track Human Ambiguity? Evidence from Multi-Annotator Vision Benchmarks

    Sep 28, 2026Manya Singh, Arjun PakrashiUncertainty Quantification

    School of Computer Science, University College Dublin, Ireland

  19. Probabilistic electrical power demand forecasting with uncertainty quantification

    Sep 28, 2026Mahesh Neupane, Pragya Dhungana, Pradip Khatri +2Uncertainty QuantificationProbabilistic Forecasting

    Interconnection and Numbering Section Nepal Telecommunications Authority Kathmandu, Nepal · Nepal Electricity Authority Kathmandu, Nepal · Department of Global Public Health and Primary Care University of Bergen Bergen, Norway +1

  20. Is your uncertainty map wrong, or is its target? Exact diagnostics for the Tweedie diagonal, and a gradient-free alternative

    Sep 27, 2026Vicent Ribas, Anna Oliveras TousUncertainty QuantificationBayesian Inference

    Eurecat · University of Barcelona

  21. Optimal Transport Dropout for Structured Predictive Uncertainty

    Sep 27, 2026Giacomo Lorenzon, Francesco RegazzoniUncertainty QuantificationUncertainty Calibration

    MOX–Department of Mathematics, Politecnico di Milano, Italy

  22. UQ-LOB: Uncertainty-Aware Limit Order Book Mid-Price Forecasting

    Sep 25, 2026Derrick Gilchrist Edward Manoharan, Eljas Linna, Kestutis Baltakys +2Uncertainty QuantificationSelective Prediction

    Data Science Research Centre Tampere University Tampere, Finland

  23. Residual Correlation as a Diagnostic for Joint-Uncertainty Gains from GP Coregionalisation

    Sep 24, 2026Fangqin Zhou, Joaquin VanschorenUncertainty QuantificationMulti-Task Learning

    Eindhoven University of Technology

  24. Direct Message Approximation (DMA): A Consistency-Based Framework for Tractable Approximate Inference on Factor Graphs

    Sep 24, 2026Ralf Herbrich, Rainer Schlosser, Jan Lemcke +11Efficient InferenceUncertainty Quantification

    Hasso Plattner Institute University of Potsdam Potsdam, Germany

  25. Sharp Limits for Honest Uncertainty in Hard-Budget Repeated Evaluation

    Sep 24, 2026Yezhou Cheng, Runjia Du, Zeming Liu +5Confidence Region EstimationUncertainty Quantification

    Independent · Northwestern University · Pinterest, Inc.

  26. Image Fidelity is Not Field Fidelity: Joint Thermodynamic Reconstruction and Error Localization in Neural Tomography

    Sep 24, 2026Alan Hsu, Jenna Samra, Alin Razvan Paraschiv +1Uncertainty Quantification3D Reconstruction

    Harvard University Cambridge, MA, USA · Center for Astrophysics | Harvard & Smithsonian Cambridge, MA, USA · National Solar Observatory Boulder, CO, USA

  27. SGA: Uncertainty Quantification for Multi-Step Forecasting in Time Series Foundation Models

    Sep 23, 2026Xin-Yu Hu, Shuang Liang, Cheng Feng +1Uncertainty QuantificationTime Series Forecasting

    National Key Laboratory for Novel Software Technology, Nanjing University, China. · School of Intelligent Science and Technology, Nanjing University, China. · Siemens Data and AI Research, Beijing, China. +1

  28. KITE: Scaling Jev Population Experiments with Sparse Flagship Calibration

    Sep 23, 2026Hengyu LiCausal Effect EstimationUncertainty Quantification

    The University of Tokyo

  29. Predictive Uncertainty for Neural CAE Surrogates

    Sep 21, 2026Kaustubh Tangsali, Mohammad Amin Nabian, Kelvin Lee +2Neural Surrogate ModelingUncertainty Quantification

    NVIDIA

  30. MGRD: Compact morphology-gated residual diffusion for variance-aware cross-domain neurite forecasting

    Sep 21, 2026Tsung Yeh Hsieh, Cosmin Anitescu, Chunghwan Kim +2Surrogate ModelingUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Mechanical Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA · Department of Biomedical Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA · Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA

  31. PosteriorBench: From Point Estimates to Posterior Matching in Evaluating Generative Inverse Solvers

    Sep 17, 2026Jiachen Yao, Zi-Siang Hsu, Xi Deng +5Uncertainty QuantificationBayesian Inverse Problems

    California Institute of Technology · National Taiwan University · Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory +3

  32. Compressed Active Subspaces for Scalable Bayesian Inference

    Sep 17, 2026Thomas Flynn, Sanket Jantre, Byung-Jun Yoon +1Uncertainty QuantificationBayesian Inference

    Computing and Data Sciences Directorate, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY, USA · Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA · Mathematics and Computer Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont, IL, USA

  33. Predicting Human Disagreement for Calibrated Dynamic Facial Expression Recognition

    Sep 15, 2026Yiming Wang, Frederick W. B. Li, Jingyun WangAnnotator DisagreementUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Computer Science, Durham University

  34. Nationally Consistent, Locally Incomplete: A Bayesian Remote-Sensing Audit of Rooftop Photovoltaic Registries

    Sep 14, 2026Gabriel Kasmi, Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan, Laurent Dubus +1Uncertainty QuantificationRemote Sensing

    Centre Observation Impacts Energie (O.I.E.), MINES Paris, Universit´e PSL, Sophia-Antipolis, France · R´eseau de Transport d’Electricit´e (RTE), Paris La D´efense, France · Lead contact +1

  35. SURE-Map: Self-Correcting Streaming Geometric Foundation Models

    Sep 14, 2026Mingkai Liu, Hao Zhao, Xingxing ZuoStreaming 3D ReconstructionUncertainty Quantification

    Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence (MBZUAI), UAE. · Peking University, China. · Tsinghua University, China.

  36. Draining Fictitious Knots: Restoring Distance-Awareness Guarantees for High-Dimensional Spline Networks

    Sep 14, 2026Masoud Ataei, Mohammad Javad Khojasteh, Vikas DhimanUncertainty QuantificationKolmogorov-Arnold Networks

    Electrical and Computer Engg. University of Maine Orono, ME, USA · Electrical and Microelectronic Engg. Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester, NY, USA

  37. Closed-form Bayesian homography estimation from noisy point correspondences

    Sep 14, 2026Hanne Beuter, Sebastian DornMulti-View GeometryUncertainty Quantification

    Technische Hochschule Augsburg · TTZ Landsberg am Lech · Augsburg, Germany

  38. Rethinking Correctness for Uncertainty Estimation in Clinical Prediction with Vision-Language Models

    Sep 14, 2026Mingcheng Zhu, Jinning Liang, Tingting ZhuUncertainty QuantificationMedical VLMs

    University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

  39. 4D Parallelism Unlocks Exascale Bayesian Neural Networks for High-Fidelity Atmospheric Modeling

    Sep 14, 2026Deifilia Kieckhefen, Juan Pedro Gutiérrez Hermosillo Muriedas, Lars Helge Heyen +12Bayesian Neural NetworksUncertainty Quantification

    Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany · Forschungszentrum Jülich, Germany · CSC – IT Center for Science Ltd., Finnland +1

  40. Uncertainty-Aware Conflict Detection Against Operator-Conditioned Weather Hazards

    Sep 14, 2026Balram Kandoria, Seulki Kim, Aryaman Singh SamyalUncertainty QuantificationAir Traffic Management

    SkyGrid, Austin, TX 78727, USA

  41. Physics-Informed Conformal Prediction: Embedding PDE Consistency into Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification for Neural Operators

    Sep 14, 2026Michael ChinFourier Neural OperatorUncertainty Quantification

    Independent Researcher

  42. Decision-Oriented Uncertainty Quantification for Risk Control in Earth System Spatiotemporal Foundation Models

    Sep 13, 2026Ji Lu, Huiran Duan, Bo Zhao +5Uncertainty QuantificationGeospatial Foundation Models

    Vanderbilt University, United States · City University of New York, United States · Yale University, United States +4

  43. Estimating Inconsistency Response Surfaces under Uncertainty in Cyber-Physical System Development

    Sep 11, 2026Johannes Mäkelburg, Tim Schwabe, Maribel AcostaCyber-Physical SystemsSurrogate Modeling

    Technische Universität München Munich, Germany

  44. Distilling Image Prototypes for Guided Test-Time Adaptation

    Sep 9, 2026Liwen Wang, Xingbo Dong, Iman Yi Liao +4Source-Free Domain AdaptationTest-Time Adaptation

    Anhui Provincial Key Laboratory of Secure Artificial Intelligence, Anhui Provincial International Joint Research Center for Advanced Technology in Medical Imaging, School of Artificial Intelligence, Anhui University, Hefei 230093, China · School of Computer Science, University of Nottingham (Malaysia Campus), Selangor Darul Ehsan, 43500, Malaysia · Department of Engineering, University of Sassari, Sassari, Italy +1

  45. Uncertainty-Aware Sea-Ice Type Mapping with Multiple Ice Charts

    Sep 8, 2026Samira Alkaee Taleghan, Younghyun Koo, Andrew P. Barrett +1Remote Sensing Image UnderstandingAnnotator Disagreement

    University of Colorado Denver Denver, Colorado, USA · National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder Boulder, Colorado, USA

  46. Accountable and uncertainty-aware evaluation of sensor-based AI under distribution shift: devices, subjects, and nearly three years underground

    Sep 8, 2026Benny Platte, Rico Thomanek, Christian Roschke +1AI AccountabilityUncertainty Quantification

    Mittweida University of Applied Sciences · Faculty of Applied Computer Sciences and Biosciences, Mittweida University of Applied Sciences, Mittweida, Germany

  47. Flexible Spectral-Normalized Neural Gaussian Process for Dynamic Aperture Prediction

    Sep 8, 2026Yousra El-Bachir, Frederik Van der Veken, Davide di Croce +4Neural Surrogate ModelingUncertainty Quantification

    Swiss Data Science Center, ETH Zurich & EPFL · CERN, Geneva · EPFL, Lausanne; CERN, Geneva

  48. Stochastically Perturbed Weights: Ensembles from Deterministic Machine-Learning Weather Models

    Sep 8, 2026Simon Adamov, Oliver Fuhrer, Reto Knutti +1Uncertainty QuantificationEnsemble Learning

    Federal Office for Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Zurich, Switzerland · Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science (IAC), ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland · Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom

  49. Geometry-Aware Bayesian Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning on the Stiefel Manifold via Stein Variational Gradient Descent

    Sep 8, 2026Quang-Duy Tran, Trung Le, Bao Duong +2Stiefel Manifold OptimizationUncertainty Quantification

    Deakin Applied Artificial Intelligence Initiative, Deakin University, Geelong, Australia · Department of Computer Science, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland · Department of Data Science & AI, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia

  50. The Role of Uncertainty in Assessing the Fairness of Machine Learning Models

    Sep 7, 2026Francesca Panero, Ernst C. Wit, Marco ScutariUncertainty QuantificationAlgorithmic Fairness

    Department of Methods and Models for Economics, Territory and Finance, Sapienza Universit`a di Roma, Rome, 00161, Italy · Department of Statistics, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, WC2B 4RR, UK · Faculty of Informatics, Universit`a della Svizzera Italiana (USI), Lugano, 6962, Switzerland +1

  51. Verdict Instability of OOD Scores under Reference Resampling

    Sep 1, 2026Donghoon Lee, Shinjin KangUncertainty QuantificationSelective Prediction

    Hongik University

  52. AdaptNTK: Adaptive Uncertainty Quantification and Active Learning for Neural Network Potentials

    Aug 31, 2026Prajwal Ananth, Shuwen YueUncertainty QuantificationMachine Learning Interatomic Potentials

    Center for Applied Mathematics, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA · R. F. Smith School of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA

  53. Reliable Benchmarking of Artifact Detection in Computational Pathology: A Reproducibility and Uncertainty Analysis

    Aug 31, 2026Konstantinos Moutselos, Ilias MaglogiannisComputational PathologyUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Digital Systems, University of Piraeus, Piraeus, Greece

  54. Aggregate Disambiguation Systems

    Aug 31, 2026José María Lago, Albert Castellana, Edgars NemšeAnnotator DisagreementConfidence Region Estimation

    GenLayer Labs Research

  55. BiG-SURE - Bipartite Graph for Semantic Uncertainty and Reliability Estimation of LLMs

    Aug 31, 2026Debarpan Bhattacharya, Malay Phadke, Sriram GanapathyUncertainty QuantificationLLM Uncertainty Estimation

    LEAP Lab, Electrical Engineering, Indian Institute of Science · TANUH AI Centre of Excellence, Indian Institute of Science

  56. Uncertainty of Vision Medical Foundation Models

    Aug 31, 2026Haoxu Huang, Narges RazavianMedical Imaging Foundation ModelsUncertainty Quantification

    Center for Data Science, New York University · Department of Radiology, NYU Grossman School of Medicine · Department of Population Health, NYU Grossman School of Medicine

  57. A Unified Perspective on Conformal Prediction and Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization for Uncertainty Quantification

    Aug 30, 2026Kehan Long, Yiqi Zhao, Pol Mestres +3Distribution Shift RobustnessUncertainty Quantification

    Contextual Robotics Institute, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA · Thomas Lord Department of Computer Science, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA · Department of Mechanical and Civil Engineering, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA +1

  58. Across-Design Uncertainty in Short Pricing Panels: Inference and Identification

    Aug 21, 2026Pedro Cadahia DelgadoCausal Effect EstimationUncertainty Quantification

    PhD, Universidad de Huelva, Spain

  59. Reliability analysis for BraTS-GoAT segmentation: a controlled robustness study of deep-ensemble uncertainty

    Aug 13, 2026Riya Deepak Shet, Le ZhangUncertainty QuantificationNeural Network Robustness

    Department of Cancer and Genomic Sciences, School of Medical Sciences, College of Medicine and Health, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom · Department of Electronic, Electrical and Systems Engineering, School of Engineering, College of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom

  60. Structure-preserving uncertainty quantification for GENERIC dynamics

    Aug 12, 2026Zequn He, Celia ReinaDynamical SystemsUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Mechanical Engineering and Applied Mechanics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, 19104, PA, United States of America