Truth as a Trajectory: What Internal Representations Reveal About Large Language Model Reasoning

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong capabilities in complex reasoning tasks, yet their decision-making processes remain difficult to interpret. Existing explanation methods often lack trustworthy structural insight and are limited to single-instance analysis, failing to reveal reasoning stability and systematic failure mechanisms. To address these limitations, we propose the Trustworthy Unified Explanation Framework (TRUE), which integrates executable reasoning verification, feasible-region directed acyclic graph (DAG) modeling, and causal failure mode analysis. At the instance level, we redefine reasoning traces as executable process specifications and introduce blind execution verification to assess operational validity. At the local structural level, we construct feasible-region DAGs via structure-consistent perturbations, enabling explicit characterization of reasoning stability and the executable region in the local input space. At the class level, we introduce a causal failure mode analysis method that identifies recurring structural failure patterns and quantifies their causal influence using Shapley values. Extensive experiments across multiple reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that the proposed framework provides multi-level, verifiable explanations, including executable reasoning structures for individual instances, feasible-region representations for neighboring inputs, and interpretable failure modes with quantified importance at the class level. These results establish a unified and principled paradigm for improving the interpretability and reliability of LLM reasoning systems.

Reasoning traces have become a valuable form of learning signals for improving and transferring the capabilities of large language models. In particular, detailed traces can help distill reasoning behavior from stronger teacher models into weaker student models. The value of capability transfer has motivated many deployed systems with reasoning models to hide raw internal traces and expose at most summaries and answers to users. As a result, we ask whether such interface-level trace hiding prevents users from obtaining useful reasoning supervision through prompting. We study this question with Reasoning Exposure Prompting (REP), a lightweight in-context elicitation method that uses shadow-model-generated demonstrations wrapped in auxiliary code-like formats to raise user-visible reasoning traces from a victim model. Across the common reasoning dataset, different victim models, and different student model distillation, REP substantially increases similarity between exposed and REP-conditioned internal traces while preserving useful reasoning signals.

Large language models (LLMs) generate not only reasoning text, but also token-level confidence trajectories that record how uncertainty evolves during inference. Whether these trajectories are relevant to reasoning correctness remains unclear. Here we show that confidence trajectories encode a content-agnostic confidence geometry associated with trace-level final-answer correctness. Using only token-level confidence values, without access to the input question, reasoning text, hidden states, or external verifiers, we find that low-dimensional representations of confidence trajectories separate correct from incorrect reasoning traces. Across GSM8K, MATH, and MMLU, this geometric separation is quantitatively linked to downstream predictability: stronger clustering of correct and incorrect traces, measured by the Davies--Bouldin index, consistently corresponds to higher correctness-discrimination AUC. We further show that correctness-related information is enriched in the tail of reasoning, suggesting that late-stage confidence dynamics carry key correctness signals. We propose NeuralConf, a lightweight estimator that learns from confidence trajectories for correctness evaluation. Under a fixed trace budget, NeuralConf-derived scores improve confidence-weighted answer aggregation over majority voting, tail confidence, and other static baselines. These results reveal that LLMs expose trace-intrinsic statistical signals of correctness through their own confidence dynamics, offering a route to improve inference using information already present within generation.