Evaluating Performance Drift from Model Switching in Multi-Turn LLM Systems
Organizations: NatWest AI Research · University College London
Abstract
Deployed multi-turn LLM systems routinely switch models mid-interaction due to upgrades, cross-provider routing, and fallbacks. Such handoffs create a context mismatch: the model generating later turns must condition on a dialogue prefix authored by a different model, potentially inducing silent performance drift. We introduce a switch-matrix benchmark that measures this effect by running a prefix model for early turns and a suffix model for the final turn, and comparing against the no-switch baseline using paired episode-level bootstrap confidence intervals. Across CoQA conversational QA and Multi-IF benchmarks, even a single-turn handoff yields prevalent and statistically significant, directional effects and may swing outcomes by -8 to +13 percentage points in Multi-IF strict success rate and +/- 4 absolute F1 on CoQA, comparable to the no-switch gap between common model tiers (e.g., GPT-5-nano vs GPT-5-mini). We further find systematic compatibility patterns: some suffix models degrade under nearly any non-self dialogue history, while others improve under nearly any foreign prefix. To enable compressed handoff risk monitoring, we decompose switch-induced drift into per-model prefix influence and suffix susceptibility terms, accounting for ~70% of variance across benchmarks. These results position handoff robustness as an operational reliability dimension that single-model benchmarks miss, motivating explicit monitoring and handoff-aware mitigation in multi-turn systems.
Figures & tables
| gpt-5-nano-2025-08-07 | gpt-5-mini-2025-08-07 | gpt-5.2-2025-12-11 | gemini-3-flash-preview | gemini-2.5-flash | deepseek-v3.2 | qwen-2.5-72b-instruct | claude-haiku-4.5 | claude-sonnet-4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| gpt-5-nano-2025-08-07 | 0.000 *** | 0.005 *** | 0.000 *** | 0.021 *** | 0.020 ** * | 0.045 *** | 0.002 *** | 0.013 *** | 0.008 *** |
| gpt-5-mini-2025-08-07 | 0.013 *** | 0.000 *** | 0.007 *** | 0.002 *** | 0.016 *** | 0.007 *** | 0.013 *** | 0.015 *** | 0.002 *** |
| gpt-5.2-2025-12-11 | 0.011 *** | 0.004 *** | 0.000 *** | 0.006 *** | 0.008 *** | 0.016 ** * | 0.027 ** * | 0.017 *** | 0.003 *** |
| gemini-3-flash-preview | 0.042 ** * | 0.004 *** | 0.005 *** | 0.000 *** | 0.013 ** * | 0.005 *** | 0.030 *** | 0.028 ** * | 0.007 *** |
| gemini-2.5-flash | 0.010 *** | 0.007 *** | 0.008 *** | 0.015 * ** | 0.000 *** | 0.016 *** | 0.029 *** | 0.030 *** | 0.002 *** |
| deepseek-v3.2 | 0.006 *** | 0.000 *** | 0.008 *** | 0.006 *** | 0.005 *** | 0.000 *** | 0.025 * ** | 0.026 ** * | 0.004 *** |
| gpt-5-nano-2025-08-07 | gpt-5-mini-2025-08-07 | gpt-5.2-2025-12-11 | gemini-3-flash-preview | gemini-2.5-flash | deepseek-v3.2 | qwen-2.5-72b-instruct | claude-haiku-4.5 | claude-sonnet-4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| gpt-5-nano-2025-08-07 | 0.000 *** | 0.015 *** | 0.025 *** | 0.010 *** | 0.045 *** | 0.000 *** | 0.010 *** | 0.076 ** * | 0.035 *** |
| gpt-5-mini-2025-08-07 | 0.096 *** | 0.000 *** | 0.045 * ** | 0.061 *** | 0.051 * ** | 0.005 *** | 0.000 *** | 0.045 *** | 0.045 *** |
| gpt-5.2-2025-12-11 | 0.106 *** | 0.051 ** * | 0.000 *** | 0.005 *** | 0.081 *** | 0.020 *** | 0.071 *** | 0.015 *** | 0.010 *** |
| gemini-3-flash-preview | 0.086 ** * | 0.005 *** | 0.005 *** | 0.000 *** | 0.086 *** | 0.040 * ** | 0.061 * ** | 0.015 *** | 0.005 *** |
| gemini-2.5-flash | 0.061 * ** | 0.061 ** * | 0.020 *** | 0.010 *** | 0.000 *** | 0.015 *** | 0.051 *** | 0.015 *** | 0.035 *** |
| deepseek-v3.2 | 0.106 *** | 0.015 *** | 0.010 *** | 0.005 *** | 0.071 *** | 0.000 *** | 0.056 * ** | 0.000 *** | 0.035 *** |
Appendix figures & tables7 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
| gpt-5-nano-2025-08-07 | gpt-5-mini-2025-08-07 | gpt-5.2-2025-12-11 | gemini-3-flash-preview | gemini-2.5-flash | deepseek-v3.2 | qwen-2.5-72b-instruct | claude-haiku-4.5 | claude-sonnet-4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| gpt-5-nano-2025-08-07 | 0.689 [0.636,0.738] | 0.751 [0.694,0.796] | 0.751 [0.700,0.801] | 0.765 [0.713,0.812] | 0.758 [0.709,0.802] | 0.730 [0.672,0.775] | 0.726 [0.674,0.773] | 0.737 [0.685,0.787] | 0.776 [0.725,0.821] |
| gpt-5-mini-2025-08-07 | 0.703 [0.645,0.754] | 0.757 [0.711,0.802] | 0.757 [0.704,0.803] | 0.788 [0.726,0.831] | 0.793 [0.743,0.834] | 0.768 [0.717,0.810] | 0.737 [0.680,0.786] | 0.739 [0.686,0.782] | 0.783 [0.734,0.833] |
| gpt-5.2-2025-12-11 | 0.700 [0.645,0.757] | 0.760 [0.704,0.808] | 0.750 [0.697,0.799] | 0.780 [0.731,0.827] | 0.786 [0.735,0.832] | 0.758 [0.703,0.805] | 0.751 [0.697,0.798] | 0.740 [0.692,0.787] | 0.781 [0.731,0.822] |
| gemini-3-flash-preview | 0.731 [0.675,0.779] | 0.753 [0.705,0.802] | 0.755 [0.709,0.804] | 0.786 [0.732,0.829] | 0.790 [0.740,0.834] | 0.769 [0.717,0.815] | 0.754 [0.702,0.800] | 0.752 [0.703,0.798] | 0.791 [0.744,0.839] |
| gemini-2.5-flash | 0.679 [0.620,0.735] | 0.763 [0.713,0.808] | 0.759 [0.709,0.803] | 0.771 [0.723,0.825] | 0.778 [0.732,0.822] | 0.758 [0.705,0.802] | 0.753 [0.696,0.798] | 0.754 [0.704,0.799] | 0.782 [0.733,0.826] |
| deepseek-v3.2 | 0.695 [0.636,0.747] | 0.756 [0.704,0.803] | 0.758 [0.710,0.803] | 0.781 [0.728,0.825] | 0.783 [0.738,0.825] | 0.774 [0.728,0.820] | 0.749 [0.696,0.797] | 0.750 [0.703,0.796] | 0.789 [0.742,0.833] |
| gpt-5-nano-2025-08-07 | gpt-5-mini-2025-08-07 | gpt-5.2-2025-12-11 | gemini-3-flash-preview | gemini-2.5-flash | deepseek-v3.2 | qwen-2.5-72b-instruct | claude-haiku-4.5 | claude-sonnet-4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| gpt-5-nano-2025-08-07 | 0.333 [0.273,0.399] | 0.419 [0.354,0.490] | 0.447 [0.382,0.513] | 0.490 [0.424,0.562] | 0.404 [0.338,0.480] | 0.399 [0.338,0.470] | 0.333 [0.268,0.394] | 0.354 [0.283,0.419] | 0.429 [0.356,0.500] |
| gpt-5-mini-2025-08-07 | 0.429 [0.364,0.500] | 0.434 [0.364,0.505] | 0.429 [0.364,0.505] | 0.439 [0.374,0.510] | 0.409 [0.338,0.475] | 0.404 [0.333,0.470] | 0.343 [0.275,0.409] | 0.384 [0.318,0.444] | 0.419 [0.348,0.495] |
| gpt-5.2-2025-12-11 | 0.439 [0.374,0.515] | 0.485 [0.419,0.556] | 0.475 [0.408,0.550] | 0.505 [0.429,0.566] | 0.439 [0.374,0.510] | 0.419 [0.354,0.490] | 0.414 [0.354,0.488] | 0.414 [0.343,0.485] | 0.455 [0.384,0.520] |
| gemini-3-flash-preview | 0.419 [0.348,0.485] | 0.429 [0.359,0.500] | 0.470 [0.404,0.540] | 0.500 [0.429,0.571] | 0.444 [0.374,0.510] | 0.439 [0.374,0.505] | 0.404 [0.335,0.480] | 0.444 [0.369,0.510] | 0.460 [0.391,0.535] |
| gemini-2.5-flash | 0.394 [0.328,0.465] | 0.495 [0.429,0.561] | 0.495 [0.424,0.566] | 0.510 [0.444,0.581] | 0.359 [0.288,0.424] | 0.414 [0.348,0.485] | 0.394 [0.326,0.470] | 0.414 [0.354,0.480] | 0.429 [0.354,0.490] |
| deepseek-v3.2 | 0.439 [0.369,0.505] | 0.449 [0.384,0.520] | 0.465 [0.398,0.530] | 0.495 [0.424,0.561] | 0.429 [0.369,0.505] | 0.399 [0.338,0.480] | 0.399 [0.335,0.470] | 0.429 [0.362,0.495] | 0.429 [0.359,0.495] |
| Prefix | Suffix | Observed | Pred. | Resid. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| gemini-3-flash-preview | gpt-5-nano-2025-08-07 | 0.042 | 0.019 | 0.022 | 0.022 |
| gemini-2.5-flash | gpt-5-nano-2025-08-07 | 0.010 | 0.010 | 0.020 | 0.020 |
| gemini-3-flash-preview | gpt-5-mini-2025-08-07 | 0.004 | 0.010 | 0.013 | 0.013 |
| gpt-5-mini-2025-08-07 | qwen-2.5-72b-instruct | 0.013 | 0.024 | 0.011 | 0.011 |
| gpt-5-nano-2025-08-07 | deepseek-v3.2 | 0.045 | 0.033 | 0.011 | 0.011 |
| gpt-5-nano-2025-08-07 | gemini-2.5-flash | 0.020 | 0.008 | 0.011 | 0.011 |
| Prefix | Suffix | Observed | Pred. | Resid. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| gemini-2.5-flash | gpt-5-nano-2025-08-07 | 0.061 | +0.104 | 0.044 | 0.044 |
| gemini-3-flash-preview | gpt-5-mini-2025-08-07 | 0.005 | 0.030 | 0.035 | 0.035 |
| gemini-2.5-flash | gpt-5-mini-2025-08-07 | 0.061 | 0.026 | 0.035 | 0.035 |
| claude-haiku-4.5 | qwen-2.5-72b-instruct | 0.000 | 0.033 | 0.033 | 0.033 |
| claude-haiku-4.5 | gpt-5.2-2025-12-11 | 0.035 | 0.005 | 0.031 | 0.031 |
| gpt-5-nano-2025-08-07 | claude-haiku-4.5 | 0.076 | 0.046 | 0.030 | 0.030 |
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