Longitudinal Lesion Inpainting in Brain MRI via 3D Region Aware Diffusion

Accurately modeling longitudinal brain MRI progression is crucial for understanding neurodegenerative diseases and predicting individualized structural changes. Existing state-of-the-art approaches, such as Brain Latent Progression (BrLP), often use multi-stage training pipelines with auxiliary conditioning modules but suffer from architectural complexity, suboptimal use of conditional clinical covariates, and limited guarantees of anatomical consistency. We propose Anatomically Guided Latent Diffusion Model (AG-LDM), a segmentation-guided framework that enforces anatomically consistent progression while substantially simplifying the training pipeline. AG-LDM conditions latent diffusion by directly fusing baseline anatomy, noisy follow-up states, and clinical covariates at the input level, a strategy that avoids auxiliary control networks by learning a unified, end-to-end model that represents both anatomy and progression. A lightweight 3D tissue segmentation model (WarpSeg) provides explicit anatomical supervision during both autoencoder fine-tuning and diffusion model training, ensuring consistent brain tissue boundaries and morphometric fidelity. Experiments on 31,713 ADNI longitudinal pairs and zero-shot evaluation on OASIS-3 demonstrate that AG-LDM matches or surpasses more complex diffusion models, achieving highly competitive image quality and 15-20% reduction in volumetric errors in generated images. AG-LDM also exhibits markedly stronger utilization of temporal and clinical covariates (3.5-31.5x higher covariate sensitivity than BrLP) and generates biologically plausible counterfactual trajectories, accurately capturing hallmarks of Alzheimer's progression such as limbic atrophy and ventricular expansion. These results highlight AG-LDM as an efficient, anatomically grounded framework for reliable brain MRI progression modeling.

Understanding and predicting the progression of neurodegenerative diseases remains a major challenge in medical AI, with significant implications for early diagnosis, disease monitoring, and treatment planning. However, most available longitudinal neuroimaging datasets are temporally sparse with a few follow-up scans per subject. This scarcity of temporal data limits our ability to model and accurately capture the continuous anatomical changes related to disease progression in individual subjects. To address this problem, we propose a novel 4D (3DxT) diffusion-based generative framework that effectively models and synthesizes longitudinal brain anatomy over time, conditioned on available clinical variables such as health status, age, sex, and other relevant factors. Moreover, while most current approaches focus on manipulating image intensity or texture, our method explicitly learns the data distribution of topology-preserving spatiotemporal deformations to effectively capture the geometric changes of brain structures over time. This design enables the realistic generation of future anatomical states and the reconstruction of anatomically consistent disease trajectories, providing a more faithful representation of longitudinal brain changes. We validate our model through both synthetic sequence generation and downstream longitudinal disease classification, as well as brain segmentation. Experiments on two large-scale longitudinal neuroimage datasets demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in generating anatomically accurate, temporally consistent, and clinically meaningful brain trajectories. Our code is available on Github.

Predicting future structural MRI of a brain is challenging because longitudinal changes are often subtle and confined to specific anatomical regions, while most subject-specific brain structure remains stable over time. An effective model should therefore preserve global brain structural consistency while remaining sensitive to fine-grained disease progression. Existing latent-space-based methods improve computational efficiency, but suffer from information loss during their compression-reconstruction procedure. In contrast, direct voxel-space methods avoid latent reconstruction but commonly use a unified prediction pathway to model brain structure and progression-related changes. Subtle local changes may therefore be overshadowed by the dominant stable brain structure. To address these challenges, we propose ProgFormer, a hierarchical voxel-space Diffusion Transformer for longitudinal brain MRI prediction. ProgFormer uses a coarse pathway to perform the primary volumetric prediction from 3D patch tokens. This pathway models overall brain structure and longitudinal context. The fine pathway then uses the coarse representations as spatio-temporal grounding for voxel-level refinement within individual patches. The two pathways jointly estimate a velocity field directly in voxel space through conditional flow matching, enabling end-to-end prediction without a separately learned image autoencoder. The predicted future scan is then generated from Gaussian noise by integrating the estimated velocity field over a sequence of Euler steps. Extensive experimental results on three widely used benchmarks, ADNI, AIBL, and OASIS, under both pairwise and trajectory settings demonstrate favourable performance compared against several state-of-the-art methods.