Valid Feature-Level Inference for Tabular Foundation Models via the Conditional Randomization Test

With the rise of tabular foundation models alongside traditional models still performing well on many tasks, choosing the right model for a tabular dataset remains difficult. We investigate whether dataset meta-features can explain performance gaps between model families on tabular prediction tasks. Using the TabArena benchmark results, we analyze dataset-level performance gaps and relate them to model-agnostic meta-features. After strict statistical tests with false discovery control, we find that (1) for neural network vs. tree gaps, no meta-feature survives false discovery control, (2) for non-foundation vs. foundation model gaps, one association is robust but does not generalize when tested in leave-one-dataset-out prediction, and (3) for TabICLv2 vs. TabPFN-2.6, one robust association also improves held-out prediction. Furthermore, we conduct a leave-one-dataset-out analysis and find that meta-feature predictors fail to improve meaningfully over a simple baseline. Overall, our results show the heterogeneity of tabular datasets and that global meta-feature approaches are not robust enough to offer explanations on the 51 TabArena datasets.

In high-dimensional tabular learning, feature screening provides a lightweight, model-agnostic way to remove irrelevant features before model fitting. However, scoring raw values directly can miss nonlinear or distributional structure. We introduce PACE (Plug-and-Play Contextual Embedding), which inserts a frozen tabular foundation model (TFM) column encoder before an existing feature-scoring rule, expanding each feature into a higher-dimensional contextual representation. Across controlled studies, PACE improves raw-space screening of complex nonlinear dependence with only modest additional encoding cost. These gains translate to downstream prediction on TALENT datasets: PACE-DC improves binary AUC by 0.077 and multiclass macro-AUC by 0.064, with a median normalized RMSE improvement of 0.063 across ten learners. Matched random-weight and random-feature controls show that PACE gains from pretrained structure beyond generic dimensional expansion. PACE further achieves favorable performance--time trade-offs against task-fitted selectors and attribution-based methods, positioning pretrained column geometry as a reusable upstream primitive for tabular learning.

Tabular foundation models (TFMs) are increasingly popular for their strong predictive performance. Many also provide posterior predictive distributions (PPDs), whose reliability remains less studied. We assess reliability through point prediction, distributional quality, marginal and subgroup calibration, and interval efficiency. We then introduce TabReliBench, a large classification and regression benchmark for these comparisons and dataset-level analyses. We find that TFMs' rankings change between TabArena and our benchmark and across reliability metrics. Regression TFMs usually achieve near-nominal marginal coverage and retain narrow intervals, but this favorable marginal behavior does not imply valid conditional coverage. Dataset-level analyses show that classification difficulty often accompanies poor calibration, whereas regression predictive performance is not a reliable indicator of calibration. Ensembling improves predictive performance but does not consistently improve calibration of PPDs; TFMs also benefit little from conformal post-processing, which does not reliably resolve subgroup gaps. Reliable TFM selection therefore requires multidimensional evaluation beyond aggregate rankings. Code is available at https://github.com/Tianqi-Zhao/TabReliBench.