Regression Prediction Intervals

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Overview

Regression prediction intervals estimate a range for an outcome, helping people judge the risk of a prediction rather than relying on a point estimate alone. Common approaches include quantile regression, Bayesian models and ensembles, and conformal prediction, which calibrates errors to provide finite-sample marginal coverage under exchangeability. Current work adapts intervals to local difficulty, skew, time dependence, and distribution shift, across settings such as tabular regression, medical prediction, and time-series forecasting. A central tension is that nominal overall coverage does not ensure reliable coverage for particular subgroups or changing conditions, while narrower intervals can come at the cost of undercoverage.

Latest papers

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102 papers16 papers in the last four weeks, up 100% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

  1. Benchmarking uncertainty quantification for engineering regression under graded distribution shift

    Oct 26, 2026Ahmad Lawal, Rahim Pasbanigoloojeh, Asmau Lawal BilbisUncertainty QuantificationRegression Prediction Intervals

    School of Computer Science and Informatics, De Montfort University, Leicester, UK

  2. Towards Trustworthy AI-Enabled Emergency Medical Dispatch: Uncertainty-Aware Ambulance Travel Time Estimation

    Oct 22, 2026Muhammad Adil Abid, Johan Holmgren, Fabian Lorig +1HealthcareRegression Prediction Intervals

    Department of Computer Science and Media Technology, Malmö University, 21119 Malmö, Sweden · Sustainable Digitalisation Research Centre, Malmö University, Sweden · Department of Health Care Management, Region Skåne, 21428 Malmö, Sweden +1

  3. Direct Inference on Admissible Sets (Diona)

    Oct 22, 2026Lorenzo Sabug, Eric KerriganRegression Prediction IntervalsSet-Valued Prediction

  4. Dynamic Dual-Feedback Conformal Inference for Time Series Forecasting

    Oct 19, 2026Songlin Du, Ling Luo, Uwe AickelinConformal PredictionAdaptive Conformal Inference

    Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, School of Computing and Information Systems, University of Melbourne

  5. Adaptive conformal prediction on the Grassmannian

    Oct 16, 2026Dimitrios Loukrezis, Zachary J. Grey, Dimitris G. GiovanisConformal PredictionRegression Prediction Intervals

    Scientific Computing Group Centrum Wiskunde & Informatica Amsterdam, The Netherlands · Applied & Computational Mathematics Division National Institute of Standards & Technology Boulder, CO, USA · Dpt. of Civil & Systems Engineering Dpt. of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Johns Hopkins University Baltimore, MD, USA

  6. State-Matched Sequence Conformal Prediction

    Oct 14, 2026Ruihang Han, Li-Hsiang LinConformal PredictionProbabilistic Time Series Forecasting

    Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30303

  7. Conformalized Physics-Informed Weak Regression for Parameter Estimation in Epidemic Models

    Oct 13, 2026Allan Peter Engsig-KarupSpatial Epidemic ModelingParameter Estimation

    Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark

  8. Split Conformal Interval Length under Huber Contamination

    Oct 11, 2026Xiao Zhang, Bowen Zhang, Lie HeConformal PredictionRegression Prediction Intervals

    Shanghai University of Finance and Economics · MoE Key Laboratory of Interdisciplinary Research of Computation and Economics, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

  9. TabReliBench: Evaluating Tabular Foundation Models Beyond Predictive Accuracy

    Oct 9, 2026Tianqi Zhao, Jia Guo, Yan Shuo Tan +1Tabular Foundation ModelsProbability Calibration

    Renmin University of China · Cerebras Systems, Inc. · National University of Singapore +1

  10. Conformal Prediction for Spatially Dependent Data via Sequential Whitening

    Oct 7, 2026Ayush Baran Sen, Arkajyoti SahaConformal PredictionRegression Prediction Intervals

    Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata, India · Department of Statistics, University of California, Irvine

  11. Joint upper-bound coverage and route-choice utility: an empirical evaluation on two urban proxy tasks

    Oct 4, 2026Jianing Long, Xiaobin Li, Wuming Lei +1Decision-Making under UncertaintyIntelligent Transportation Systems

    School of Transportation Engineering East China Jiaotong University

  12. Announced Breaks Separate Conformal Reliability from Frequency Calibration

    Oct 3, 2026Karl LiConformal PredictionAdaptive Conformal Inference

    Columbia University

  13. Threshold-Aware Conformal Routing

    Oct 1, 2026Shiwei Tan, Huzefa Rangwala, Danielle C. MaddixConformal PredictionRegression Prediction Intervals

    Rutgers University · Siemens

  14. Conformal Prediction for Time Series with Deep Sequence Models

    Oct 1, 2026Junghwan Lee, Jonghyeok Lee, Yao XieConformal PredictionRegression Prediction Intervals

    H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology

  15. Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Image Regression Models with Application to an Inertial Confinement Fusion Emulator

    Sep 30, 2026Carrie J. Lei-Cramer, Michael S. Jones, Laura J. WendelbergerUncertainty QuantificationConformal Prediction

    Department of Statistics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA. · Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, USA.

  16. Conformal Prediction and Conditional Coverage for Tabular Foundation Models

    Sep 28, 2026Sungwoo Park, Sunghee Park, Won ChangTabular Foundation ModelsGroup-Conditional Conformal Prediction

    Department of Statistics Seoul National University Seoul, Republic of Korea

  17. Probabilistic electrical power demand forecasting with uncertainty quantification

    Sep 28, 2026Mahesh Neupane, Pragya Dhungana, Pradip Khatri +2Uncertainty QuantificationProbabilistic Forecasting

    Interconnection and Numbering Section Nepal Telecommunications Authority Kathmandu, Nepal · Nepal Electricity Authority Kathmandu, Nepal · Department of Global Public Health and Primary Care University of Bergen Bergen, Norway +1

  18. Uncertainty Quantification of Next Generation Reservoir Computing with Applications to Memory-Driven Dynamical Systems

    Sep 26, 2026Livia Popa, Sumanta Basu, Martin T. WellsUncertainty QuantificationReservoir Computing

    Department of Statistics and Data Science, Cornell University, New York, USA

  19. PICPIs: Prediction-Interval-Conditional Prediction Intervals

    Sep 21, 2026Xuelin Yang, Baihe Huang, Yilong Hou +2Probability CalibrationConformal Prediction

    University of California, Berkeley · Stanford University · Inria Paris

  20. Conformalized Quantile Regression and Minimax Limits of Fixed-Score Calibration under Known Covariate Shift

    Sep 21, 2026Rustam Isaev, Anton Conrad, Denis Belomestny +2Conformal PredictionCovariate Shift

    Faculty of Computer Science, HSE University, Moscow, Russia · Faculty of Computational Mathematics and Cybernetics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia · Laboratoire de Recherche d’EPITA, Le Kremlin-Bicêtre, France +2

  21. Beyond Point Prediction: Artificial Representative Trees with Uncertainty

    Sep 21, 2026Lea L. Mairhöfer, Silke Szymczak, Björn-Hergen Laabs +1Interpretable MLConformal Prediction

    Institute of Medical Biometry and Statistics, University of Luebeck, Ratzeburger Allee 160 V24, 23562, Lübeck, Germany. · Department of Medical Statistics, University Medical Center Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany. · CAIMed, Lower Saxony Center for Artificial Intelligence and Causal Methods in Medicine, Göttingen, Germany. +1

  22. TEMPER: Temporal Encoder-Masked Probabilistic Ensemble Regressor for Time-Series Forecasting

    Sep 20, 2026Giancarlo VercellinoTime Series ForecastingProbabilistic Time Series Forecasting

    Independent researcher

  23. Reliability-Centered Evaluation of Sparse Longitudinal CT Lesion-Size Forecasting with Conformal Interval Calibration and Gompertz-Inspired Regularization

    Sep 18, 2026Lingfei KongLongitudinal Medical Image AnalysisClinical Prediction

    Department of Mathematics, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee, United States

  24. Scaling-Score Conformal Prediction for Multi-Target Regression

    Sep 15, 2026Sylvain Rousseau, Soundouss MessoudiConformal PredictionRegression Prediction Intervals

    Heudiasyc · Université de Technologie de Compiègne, CNRS, Heudiasyc, Compiègne, France

  25. Split Conformal Prediction with Label-Shift-Adjusted Bayesian Scores

    Sep 11, 2026Hyeonsu Lee, Juyeon Kim, Erkhembayar Jadamba +2Label ShiftConformal Prediction

    MOGAM Institute for Biomedical Research, Korea · CROID Research and aSSIST University, Korea

  26. Beyond Point Predictions: Uncertainty-Aware Satellite Poverty Mapping for Public Policy

    Aug 24, 2026Markus B. Pettersson, James Bailie, Mohammad Kakooei +2Regression Prediction IntervalsFair Resource Allocation

    Division of Data Science and AI, Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Chalmers University of Technology and the University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden · Institute for Analytical Sociology, Linköping University, Norrköping, Sweden · AI & Global Development Lab, Linköping University, Norrköping, Sweden +3

  27. Dirichlet Process Mixtures of Trees with Gaussian Process Splits: A Bayesian Nonparametric Framework with Posterior Contraction Rate

    Aug 22, 2026Subhasish Basak, Anik Roy, Sourabh BhattacharyaDirichlet Process Mixture ModelsPosterior Contraction

    Indian Statistical Institute

  28. Conformal Prediction for Molecular Properties under Label Shift

    Aug 18, 2026Hyeonsu Lee, Juyeon Kim, Erkhembayar Jadamba +2Conformal PredictionLabel Shift

    Mogam Institute for Biomedical Research · Intellicode

  29. Dynamic Regime-Aware Conformal Calibration for Reliable Economic Forecast Intervals under Multiple Distribution Shifts

    Aug 17, 2026Bogdan OanceaWeighted Conformal PredictionAdaptive Conformal Inference

    University of Bucharest, Romania · National Institute of Research and Development for Biological Sciences

  30. Prediction Inference of Time Series with Standard ReLU Deep Neural Networks

    Aug 15, 2026Kejin WuProbabilistic Time Series ForecastingRegression Prediction Intervals

    Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Loyola University Chicago