stat.MLMar 6, 2026

Bilateral Trade Under Heavy-Tailed Valuations: Minimax Regret without a Variance Bound

Authors: Hangyi Zhao

Abstract

In contextual bilateral trade under full feedback, the posted price does not affect which valuations are observed. We show that in this model such action-independent feedback removes the polynomial adaptation penalty familiar from heavy-tailed bandits: fully parameter-free algorithms attain the oracle minimax TT-exponents up to logarithmic factors, with no knowledge of the moment order p(1,2)p \in (1,2) or its scale σpσ_p, and -- in the nonparametric case -- none of the effective Hölder smoothness β(0,1]β\in (0,1]. The statistic that makes model selection possible is a paired squared-loss difference, whose noise-square term cancels exactly, leaving noise damped by the candidate gap. The resulting bilateral-trade regret rates are new. Trader valuations have bounded conditional densities and heavy tails -- finite pp-th moments for some p(1,2)p \in (1,2), with possibly infinite variance. An epoch-based algorithm with truncated means achieves regret O~(T(2p)/p)\widetilde{O}(T^{(2-p)/p}) in the parametric model and O~(T12β(p1)/(βp+d(p1)))\widetilde{O}(T^{1-2β(p-1)/(βp + d(p-1))}) when the market value function is ββ-Hölder, with matching Ω()Ω(\cdot) lower bounds -- under a mild nondegeneracy condition -- via Assouad's method and a fixed-support mixture construction -- characterizing the minimax rate in TT up to logarithmic factors over the effective smoothness range β(0,1]β\in (0,1], interpolating between the classical nonparametric rate at p=2p{=}2 and the trivial linear rate as p1+p \to 1^+. The enabling structural step extends the self-bounding property of Bachoc et al. (ICML 2025) from bounded to real-valued valuations: within our conditionally independent, conditionally centered noise model, bounded conditional densities and finite first moments suffice for the expected regret of any price ππ to satisfy E[g(m,V,W)g(π,V,W)]Lmπ2\mathbb{E}[g(m,V,W) - g(π,V,W)] \le L|m-π|^2 -- no second moment is needed.

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