Sparsity and Out-of-Distribution Generalization

Successful deep neural networks discover salient features of data. We show when and why they fail to learn out-of-distribution (OOD)-relevant representations from an in-distribution (ID) training window. This requires decoupling feature learning from data-generating-process (DGP) identifiability. From a single training window, OOD extrapolation is non-identifiable: infinitely many DGPs are $\varepsilon$-observationally equivalent on the training data but diverge arbitrarily outside it, and no in-distribution criterion alone reliably breaks the tie. A structural commitment, the feature map, label map, and model class $(\varphi, ψ, \mathcal{M})$, dictates the assumed DGP and governs OOD generalization while leaving ID performance essentially unchanged. When architecture, pretraining, augmentation, input formats, or domain knowledge implicitly inject the missing commitment, the model succeeds. When it cannot infer OOD-relevant structure from ID evidence, it fails. Changing only the representation can make the same architecture, at the same in-distribution loss, differ by ${\sim}520\times$ out of distribution. When the commitment is correct and identifiable, OOD error vanishes. For example, Fourier coordinates turn periodic extrapolation into interpolation on $\mathbb{S}^1$. The same mechanism predicts outcomes in three natural-science settings (mass-action chemistry; Kepler's-third-law exoplanet prediction, $n=2{,}362$; and cross-species coding-DNA detection) and in a 264-run positional-encoding study across Transformer, Mamba, and S4D. Finally, a controlled study shows: correct features are necessary but not sufficient. The model class must express the target, and the transformed training data must cover the relevant representation space.

Can out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization be predicted from a trained model's weights alone, without any target-domain data? Existing representational similarity metrics (CKA, SVCCA, RSA) compare activations rather than forecast generalization. We show they are provably insensitive to structural rerouting in the computational graph, the very change distribution shift induces. We close this gap with the Circuit Alignment Score (CAS), which compares class-specific circuits across domains via graph kernels, decomposed into same-class coherence and cross-class confusion. Casting CAS as a Lebesgue integral over the domain distribution, we prove its Monte Carlo estimate recovers the ground-truth ranking of learners by OOD accuracy, with pairwise inversion error vanishing at rate $O(1/M)$, where $M$ is the number of sampled domains. Across $48$ learners on PACS, CAS attains $0.88$ rank correlation with OOD accuracy, versus $0.58$ (CKA), $0.23$ (SVCCA), and $0.14$ (RSA), with similar trends on other benchmarks and even against data-dependent methods, making it the first provably consistent predictor of distributional robustness requiring neither target-domain data nor labels. The code is available at: https://github.com/ayanban011/ACE

Out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization is a central challenge in scientific machine learning. We study regression problems in which the test distribution differs from the training distribution and ask: under what assumptions on the target function or operator is stable extrapolation possible, and how far beyond the training domain can one extrapolate? Existing theory controls the test error through additive penalties measuring the discrepancy between the training and test distributions. Such guarantees show robustness to small distribution shifts, but can be very pessimistic in comparison to OOD performance observed empirically. We identify classes of holomorphic functions and operators for which the OOD generalization error converges at algebraic rates even in the presence of large distribution shifts. This phenomenon stems from the increasing smoothness of higher-index coordinates, leading to what we term a `blessing of high dimensionality'. For learning with either polynomials, deep neural networks or deep neural operators, we derive explicit rates for arbitrary test measures supported on suitable domains and quantify how the admissible domain depends on the underlying regularity of the function or operator. Our extrapolation guarantees are independent of the test distribution, depending only on its support. We also present a series of numerical experiments across a range of functions and operators that support the main theoretical findings.