Drift-to-Action Controllers: Budgeted Interventions with Online Risk Certificates

Real-world datasets often exhibit evolving distributions, known as concept drift. Ignoring drift degrades predictive performance, while reliance on fixed hyperparameters further limits model adaptability under changing conditions. Adaptive learning addresses this challenge by continuously updating models online, allowing them to incrementally adjust and remain effective as data distributions evolve. This paper presents the Stream Cruise Control Method (SCCM), a comprehensive framework for drift detection and adaptation in online regression. SCCM enables automated adaptation through early-response, pre-update drift detection, drift magnitude quantification, KPI-window-based thresholding for local false-alarm mitigation, dynamic hyperparameter tuning, and model recalibration. SCCM also adopts an in-memory design for real-time adaptability, unlike purely reactive methods that typically activate adaptation only after performance degradation is observed. By using dynamic thresholding and remaining agnostic to data distributions, SCCM supports KPI-based monitoring across varying data streams, including high-dimensional and large-scale settings. SCCM is integrated with four online regression models and evaluated on 18 synthetic datasets covering abrupt, incremental, and alternating gradual drift, together with eight real-world datasets. The evaluation uses both R2 and MSE and compares against eight detector--adaptation baselines. Results show improved predictive performance and effective drift handling across the evaluated online regression settings.

When an LLM agent reads a confidential file, then writes a summary, then emails it externally, no single step is unsafe, but the sequence is a data leak. We call this safety drift: individually safe actions compounding into violations. Prior work has measured this problem; we predict it. SafetyDrift models agent safety trajectories as absorbing Markov chains, computing the probability that a trajectory will reach a violation within a given number of steps via closed form absorption analysis. A consequence of the monotonic state design is that every agent will eventually violate safety if left unsupervised (absorption probability 1.0 from all states), making the practical question not if but when, and motivating our focus on finite horizon prediction. Across 357 traces spanning 40 realistic tasks in four categories, we discover that "points of no return" are sharply task dependent: in communication tasks, agents that reach even a mild risk state have an 85% chance of violating safety within five steps, while in technical tasks the probability stays below 5% from any state. A lightweight monitor built on these models detects 94.7% of violations with 3.7 steps of advance warning at negligible computational cost, outperforming both keyword matching (44.7% detection, 55.9% false positive rate) and per step LLM judges (52.6% detection, 38.2% false positive rate) while running over 60,000x faster.

Automated toxicity moderation systems operate in dynamic online environments where harmful behavior evolves through coded language, shifting targets, and strategic adaptation to enforcement. Existing drift detection methods often focus on global distributional change, but such signals may miss safety-relevant shifts that emerge in localized harm subspaces or high-risk model-error regions. This paper introduces DriftGuard, a safety-aware adaptive moderation framework that combines multi-monitor drift detection with selective model updating. The framework tracks global text drift, identity-harm drift, model uncertainty, toxic-risk drift, and false-negative-risk drift. When safety-relevant change is detected, the model is updated using a hard-mix adaptation set that prioritizes likely false negatives, identity-related high-risk examples, false-positive-risk examples, and uncertain boundary cases. Experiments on Civil Comments temporal shift and Jigsaw-to-DynaHate cross-dataset shift show that safety-aware monitors detect risks missed by global drift alone. Hard-mix adaptation improves toxic recall and accuracy over no-update and random-balanced baselines, raising toxic recall to 0.8777 on Civil Comments and from 0.7107 to 0.8523 on DynaHate. Bootstrap analysis further shows stable DynaHate safety gains, with toxic recall increasing by 0.1418 and false-negative prevalence decreasing by 0.0781. Overall, DriftGuard links safety-aware drift detection to targeted, lightweight model updating for more robust adaptive toxicity moderation.