Interpretable Markov-Based Spatiotemporal Risk Surfaces for Missing-Child Search Planning with Reinforcement Learning and LLM-Based Quality Assurance

The first 72 hours of a missing-person investigation are critical for successful recovery. Guardian is an end-to-end system designed to support missing-child investigation and early search planning. This paper presents the Guardian LLM Pipeline, a multi-model system in which LLMs are used for intelligent information extraction and processing related to missing-person search operations. The pipeline coordinates end-to-end execution across task-specialized LLM models and invokes a consensus LLM engine that compares multiple model outputs and resolves disagreements. The pipeline is further strengthened by QLoRA-based fine-tuning, using curated datasets. The presented design aligns with prior work on weak supervision and LLM-assisted annotation, emphasizing conservative, auditable use of LLMs as structured extractors and labelers rather than unconstrained end-to-end decision makers.

Missing-person and child-safety investigations rely on heterogeneous case documents, including structured forms, bulletin-style posters, and narrative web profiles. Variations in layout, terminology, and data quality impede rapid triage, large-scale analysis, and search-planning workflows. This paper introduces the Guardian Parser Pack, an AI-driven parsing and normalization pipeline that transforms multi-source investigative documents into a unified, schema-compliant representation suitable for operational review and downstream spatial modeling. The proposed system integrates (i) multi-engine PDF text extraction with Optical Character Recognition (OCR) fallback, (ii) rule-based source identification with source-specific parsers, (iii) schema-first harmonization and validation, and (iv) an optional Large Language Model (LLM)-assisted extraction pathway incorporating validator-guided repair and shared geocoding services. We present the system architecture, key implementation decisions, and output design, and evaluate performance using both gold-aligned extraction metrics and corpus-level operational indicators. On a manually aligned subset of 75 cases, the LLM-assisted pathway achieved substantially higher extraction quality than the deterministic comparator (F1 = 0.8664 vs. 0.2578), while across 517 parsed records per pathway it also improved aggregate key-field completeness (96.97% vs. 93.23%). The deterministic pathway remained much faster (mean runtime 0.03 s/record vs. 3.95 s/record for the LLM pathway). In the evaluated run, all LLM outputs passed initial schema validation, so validator-guided repair functioned as a built-in safeguard rather than a contributor to the observed gains. These results support controlled use of probabilistic AI within a schema-first, auditable pipeline for high-stakes investigative settings.

Real decisions are made under incomplete information. If we observe only some of the random variables we need, we can predict the others. The conditional marginals over the missing variables are the key ingredient for computing Bayes risk and Value of Information (VOI), the expected gain from acquiring one more observation before deciding. We present the Marformer, a Transformer trained to directly predict conditional marginals given any set of observed values. Like BERT, which is trained to predict missing words from context, the Marformer constructs a hidden-vector representation for each distribution $p(X_i)$ and iteratively refines it through attention to other distributions $p(X_j)$. Unlike generative approaches, the Marformer does not model the full joint distribution, requires no domain knowledge of the data-generating process, and makes all predictions in a single forward pass. We evaluate across three synthetic domains with missing data---Bayesian networks, discretized multivariate Gaussians, and structured annotation data. The Marformer can match or outperform classical missing-data methods, even when those methods are given the true model family and prior that generated the synthetic data. We also evaluate on a real annotation dataset, where the Marformer outperforms the evaluated baselines at the largest training size. In both cases, the Marformer is substantially faster than the evaluated generative baselines.